Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
318 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TROPICAL LOW PULLING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS/TSTORMS GOING THROUGH SUNSET...THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
DIMINISHING IN THE ACTIVITY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE
CWA. WILL BRING POPS BACK TO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTH GA...SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ALL
OF NORTH GA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A HIGHER RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE
CWA...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT...WILL BE GOING
CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE ON LOWS TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WITH CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TEMPS FOR LOWS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

17

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF THINGS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

MODELS SIMILAR WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING FRIDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING TO THE OH VALLEY AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
MOVING TO THE NE STATES/SE CANADA LATE MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CAUSES A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL STARTING WITH SATURDAYS
HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH GA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE ACROSS CSG/MCN. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST GA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE...BRINGING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA TO ATL/AHN LATE THUR MORNING.
CIGS WILL BECOME VFR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MVFR LATE
TONIGHT WITH A SLOW RISE TO VFR BY 18Z THU. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS TONIGHT
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF PRECIP THURS
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  86  70  84 /  70  60  60  50
ATLANTA         72  84  70  82 /  70  60  60  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  78  66  79 /  70  70  60  40
CARTERSVILLE    71  84  69  83 /  70  70  60  50
COLUMBUS        73  87  73  84 /  40  60  60  60
GAINESVILLE     70  82  69  82 /  70  70  60  40
MACON           72  89  72  85 /  40  50  60  60
ROME            70  83  67  84 /  70  70  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  72  83  71  82 /  60  60  60  50
VIDALIA         73  91  74  88 /  40  30  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1213 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101615-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1213 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
INSTABILITIES ARE WEAK TO MARGINAL SO NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
509 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

GAZ093-104-105-092145-
SUMTER GA-MACON GA-DOOLY GA-
509 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SUMTER...SOUTHERN
MACON AND NORTHWESTERN DOOLY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 508 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR OGLETHORPE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA CAUTION.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
OGLETHORPE...MONTEZUMA...BYROMVILLE...ANDERSONVILLE...LILLY...
DOOLING...FOUNTAINVILLE...ANDERSONVILLE NATIONAL HISTORIC...CLEARVIEW
AND PENNINGTON.

LAT...LON 3214 8417 3229 8417 3242 8384 3238 8384
      3238 8386 3236 8386 3236 8385 3229 8385
      3229 8384 3215 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 254DEG 17KT 3223 8407

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
602 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

GAZ019-020-092245-
BARTOW GA-FLOYD GA-
602 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BARTOW AND
SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 602 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TAYLORSVILLE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROME...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA CAUTION.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...EUHARLEE...KINGSTON...TAYLORSVILLE...
CASSVILLE...LINDALE...SENEY AND STILESBORO.

LAT...LON 3432 8487 3408 8482 3408 8505 3410 8505
      3410 8512 3408 8512 3408 8515 3410 8516
      3410 8525 3422 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 261DEG 16KT 3415 8508

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
608 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

GAZ025-034-035-092245-
GWINNETT GA-BARROW GA-JACKSON GA-
608 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GWINNETT...BARROW
AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 608 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER AUBURN...OR NEAR
WINDER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA CAUTION.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
LAWRENCEVILLE...WINDER...JEFFERSON...SUGAR HILL...SUWANEE...BUFORD...
BRASELTON...AUBURN...DACULA...GRAYSON...STATHAM...ARCADE...
HOSCHTON...BETHLEHEM...PENDERGRASS...CARL...CHATEAU ELAN...COUNTY
LINE...RUSSELL AND FORT YARGO STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3419 8358 3397 8353 3390 8365 3390 8376
      3391 8377 3393 8380 3390 8384 3389 8402
      3408 8405 3411 8390 3410 8387 3414 8381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 254DEG 21KT 3403 8381

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
648 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

GAZ020-021-092330-
BARTOW GA-CHEROKEE GA-
648 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BARTOW AND CHEROKEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 647 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CARTERSVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA CAUTION.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CANTON...CARTERSVILLE...WOODSTOCK...HOLLY SPRINGS...EUHARLEE...
EMERSON...BALL GROUND...WHITE...WALESKA...KINGSTON...BUFFINGTON...
CASSVILLE...LEBANON...UNION HILL...RED TOP MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...
BRIDGEMILL...LAKE ARROWHEAD...HOBGOOD PARK...KELLOGG CREEK AND
HICKORY FLAT.

LAT...LON 3438 8454 3438 8444 3439 8444 3439 8443
      3438 8442 3438 8440 3412 8437 3412 8439
      3411 8440 3411 8442 3408 8442 3409 8491
      3423 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 251DEG 12KT 3420 8471

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
654 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

GAZ025-035>037-047-092345-
OCONEE GA-BARROW GA-CLARKE GA-JACKSON GA-WALTON GA-
654 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OCONEE...SOUTHEASTERN
BARROW...CLARKE...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN WALTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 654 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BETHLEHEM...OR 7 MILES
SOUTH OF WINDER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA CAUTION.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WINDER...WATKINSVILLE...ATHENS...STATHAM...ARCADE...WINTERVILLE...
BOGART...NORTH HIGH SHOALS...BETHLEHEM...HULL...ATHENS-CLARKE COUNTY
(BALANCE)...WHITEHALL...GRATIS...BEECHWOOD HILLS...BEAR CREEK
RESERVOIR...SANDY CREEK RECREATION AREA...CAMPTON...BOLD SPRINGS...
STATE BOTANICAL GARDEN OF GA AND BARRETTS MILL.

LAT...LON 3406 8338 3405 8339 3403 8332 3400 8328
      3400 8327 3398 8327 3397 8326 3384 8334
      3382 8377 3392 8381 3408 8350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 250DEG 12KT 3390 8367

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