Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
318 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TROPICAL LOW PULLING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS/TSTORMS GOING THROUGH SUNSET...THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
DIMINISHING IN THE ACTIVITY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE
CWA. WILL BRING POPS BACK TO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTH GA...SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ALL
OF NORTH GA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A HIGHER RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE
CWA...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT...WILL BE GOING
CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE ON LOWS TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WITH CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TEMPS FOR LOWS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

17

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF THINGS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

MODELS SIMILAR WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING FRIDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING TO THE OH VALLEY AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
MOVING TO THE NE STATES/SE CANADA LATE MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CAUSES A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL STARTING WITH SATURDAYS
HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH GA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE ACROSS CSG/MCN. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST GA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE...BRINGING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA TO ATL/AHN LATE THUR MORNING.
CIGS WILL BECOME VFR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MVFR LATE
TONIGHT WITH A SLOW RISE TO VFR BY 18Z THU. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS TONIGHT
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF PRECIP THURS
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  86  70  84 /  70  60  60  50
ATLANTA         72  84  70  82 /  70  60  60  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  78  66  79 /  70  70  60  40
CARTERSVILLE    71  84  69  83 /  70  70  60  50
COLUMBUS        73  87  73  84 /  40  60  60  60
GAINESVILLE     70  82  69  82 /  70  70  60  40
MACON           72  89  72  85 /  40  50  60  60
ROME            70  83  67  84 /  70  70  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  72  83  71  82 /  60  60  60  50
VIDALIA         73  91  74  88 /  40  30  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1213 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101615-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1213 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
INSTABILITIES ARE WEAK TO MARGINAL SO NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
405 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

GAZ038-039-092045-
OGLETHORPE GA-WILKES GA-
405 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OGLETHORPE AND WILKES COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 402 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR RAYLE...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LEXINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WASHINGTON...LEXINGTON...TIGNALL...MAXEYS...RAYLE...STEPHENS...
CELESTE...VESTA...JACKSONS CROSSROADS...DELHI...NEWTOWN...
METASVILLE...FLORAL HILL...MALLORYSVILLE...NORMAN...DANBURG...
PHILOMATH AND HUTCHINGS.

LAT...LON 3372 8294 3373 8295 3371 8298 3370 8303
      3371 8306 3370 8312 3371 8315 3384 8319
      3403 8294 3401 8293 3401 8291 3398 8286
      3399 8284 3397 8278 3399 8265 3386 8261
      3387 8258 3387 8257 3383 8260 3376 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 249DEG 26KT 3380 8301