Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD ON TAP WITH CONTINUED AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OFF THE GULF AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. PWATS
STAYING NEAR 2.0 INCHES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SO HIGH EFFICIENT
CONVECTION FROM GOOD HYDROMETEOR LOADING WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT AS PREVIOUS DAYS IN THIS PATTERN HAVE
VERIFIED. ALSO SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS MAIN OTHER THREAT. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN MS MAY HAVE ENOUGH LATENT HEAT RELEASE
TO GET AN MCV GOING INTO OVERNIGHT AND SOME MODELS HAVE INCLUDED
SOME INFLUENCE FROM THIS DISTURBANCE MAINLY IN THE 00-06Z PERIOD SO
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDER BUT WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IF SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED CAN HOLD
TOGETHER.

FOR THURSDAY...POPS STAY HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY IN NW MAJORITY OF
CWA AHEAD OF A FRONT FROM THE NW. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER
DYNAMICS TO ADVANCE THE FRONT AND GUIDANCE IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH
BOUNDARY STALLING INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY OVERNIGHT.
HAVE TRENDED INITIAL LIKELY POPS IN THE DAYTIME TO CHANCE POPS
FURTHER SOUTH ACCORDINGLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL SO STILL HAVE MAIN THREATS
OF ISOLATED FLOODING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH INSTABILITY
LOOKS MARGINAL WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE. ANY AREAS OF SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THAN WHAT THE
MODELS SUGGEST AND SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TEMPS LOOK TO HAVE RATHER LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE GIVEN AMPLE CLOUD
COVERAGE. LOWS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMS.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...MAINLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS. ON
FRIDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE BROAD QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA. THIS KEEPS THE AREA SOCKED INTO THE
PERSISTENT MOIST SW FLOW PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGHEST
POPS WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE MAXIMIZED...WHILE CLEARING SHOULD
GRADUALLY OCCUR FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL FINALLY RELAX THE INFLUX OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE..AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES WW ALONG THE GULF AND A POTENT
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS COUPLED WITH POST
FRONTAL RIDGING FROM SFC HIGH WILL SUPPRESS PRECIP CHANCES BUT
STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES. HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
CLOSEST TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL BE BEST
COLOCATED...WHEREAS SUNDAY POPS WILL FAVOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...H5 PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE NW AS A
POTENT CLOSED LOW CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE BUT WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT... COVERAGE IS LESS
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GLANCING AT THE TROPICS...TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS PROGGED BY NHC TO
INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY MORNING AND TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
BY MID WEEK. FORECAST PATH SUGGESTS POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL MONITOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE US.

KOVACIK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015/
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL CIGS OF HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR IN 2500-3500 FT
RANGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSRA POTENTIAL UP UNTIL 00Z OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER WITH LINGERING -SHRA POSSIBLY THRU 04Z FROM A
DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE TROPICAL SW FLOW. CIGS LOOK TO
LOWER AGAIN TO IFR SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS FOR 09-14Z WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND AGAIN CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND -TSRA
RETURNING NEAR 18Z TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY SW TO WEST
AT 5-8 KTS WITH LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS WITH
ANY TSRA IN MVFR/IFR RANGE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON PRECIP TIMING AND OVERNIGHT CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  88  71  88 /  50  50  30  20
ATLANTA         73  86  72  87 /  60  60  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     68  78  64  81 /  70  60  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  84  68  87 /  60  60  40  10
COLUMBUS        74  89  74  92 /  60  60  30  30
GAINESVILLE     71  83  70  84 /  60  60  40  20
MACON           73  91  73  93 /  50  50  30  20
ROME            71  83  67  86 /  70  60  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  72  87  70  88 /  60  60  30  20
VIDALIA         75  92  75  93 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....KOVACIK
AVIATION...BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1058 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201500-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1058 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN THAT COULD CAUSE BRIEF FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...AND LIGHTNING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STRONG WINDS AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE BETWEEN 2PM AND 10PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
648 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

GAZ002-004-005-007-011>013-019-020-192330-
GILMER GA-MURRAY GA-GORDON GA-WHITFIELD GA-PICKENS GA-BARTOW GA-
CHATTOOGA GA-WALKER GA-FLOYD GA-
648 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GILMER...SOUTHERN
MURRAY...GORDON...SOUTHERN WHITFIELD...NORTHWESTERN PICKENS...
NORTHERN BARTOW...CHATTOOGA...SOUTHEASTERN WALKER AND NORTHERN FLOYD
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 647 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXTENDING FROM 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF GAYLESVILLE TO NEAR CASSVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ROME...DALTON...CARTERSVILLE...CALHOUN...SUMMERVILLE...ELLIJAY...
ADAIRSVILLE...TRION...WHITE...EAST ELLIJAY...RESACA...PLAINVILLE...
TALKING ROCK...SHANNON...FAIRMOUNT...LYERLY...RANGER...FUNKHOUSER...
NAOMI AND SUTTLES MILL.

LAT...LON 3476 8520 3466 8428 3441 8459 3441 8465
      3435 8465 3425 8478 3432 8547 3438 8548
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 218DEG 27KT 3435 8542 3429 8485