Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING BETWEEN
NOON AND 10 PM... WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER SEVERE LIMITS... AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY... AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AS CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE.

THE GREATER CONVECTIVE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FLOODING
AS ENTRENCHED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SUPPORTS LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS... EVEN FROM SHOWERS... THAT CAN QUICKLY DUMP 1-3 INCHES
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY FLASHY... FLOOD
PRONE CREEKS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OR MORE.

OTHERWISE... WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS AS AMPLE LOWS
CLOUDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLD LOWS IN THE 70S... AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HELP HOLD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MOSTLY IN THE
80S... EXCEPT SOME LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. GFS
HAS LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THUS STRUGGLES TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH BUT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND EARLIER ECMWF TO KEEP CONSISTENCY. OTHERWISE
HAVE REFRESHED OTHER FIELDS WITH LATEST BLEND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN IN LONG TERM PERIOD TRANSITIONS FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY STATES ON WED TO ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND FINALLY WEAK NW FLOW/UPR RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A HINT OF A
MDT FROPA ON MONDAY. WITH THE FIRST TWO PATTERNS...SE CONUS SHOULD
REMAIN IN MOIST PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE WEEKEND. NO
ONE DAY SEEMS TO STAND OUT WITH PRECIP CHCS NOR DO ANY DAYS SEEM
TO HAVE CHC FOR SVR OR EVEN STRONG DEEP CONVECTION. MED RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WPC PREFERRING BLEND OF ALL 00Z
OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR FEATURES AFFECTING CWA THRU DAY 7.

TROPICAL ACTIVITY REMAINS SUBDUED. COLD CORE UPPER LOW OFF
CAROLINA COAST...WHICH HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN CREATING STAGNANT
PATTERN OF LATE AND MAY BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE...SHOULD GET
PICKED UP BY UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIFT AWAY FROM EAST
COAST. LOW LATITUDE DISTURBANCE AT 35W LONGITUDE THAT TPC IS
TRACKING COULD DEVELOP INTO A NAMED STORM BUT PROGGED TO REMAIN ON
WESTERLY COURSE WITH MEAGER INTENSITY BY ECMWF AND GFS. BY NO
MEANS A GUARANTEE BUT THATS THE LATEST 411.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD START EXITING WITHIN THE HOUR. HI-RES
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO LEFT MENTION OUT. HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...BUT SHOULD BE
BKN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  89  73  89 /  70  70  50  60
ATLANTA         73  87  73  87 /  70  70  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     67  81  68  80 /  80  80  60  70
CARTERSVILLE    70  87  72  86 /  80  80  60  70
COLUMBUS        74  89  74  90 /  70  70  40  60
GAINESVILLE     71  85  72  85 /  70  70  50  70
MACON           73  91  74  91 /  70  70  40  50
ROME            71  86  72  85 /  80  80  60  70
PEACHTREE CITY  72  88  72  88 /  70  70  50  70
VIDALIA         74  91  75  92 /  60  70  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1202 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191130-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1202 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG... OR EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH... FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD CAUSE BRIEF
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS. THE MORE FAVORABLE TIME
FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE LIKELY
HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

GAZ025-027-033>035-044-045-047-055-182315-
DEKALB GA-MADISON GA-NORTH FULTON GA-SOUTH FULTON GA-CLAYTON GA-
GWINNETT GA-BARROW GA-JACKSON GA-WALTON GA-
645 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DEKALB...WESTERN
MADISON...NORTH FULTON...SOUTH FULTON...NORTHWESTERN CLAYTON...
SOUTHEASTERN GWINNETT...BARROW...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
NORTHWESTERN WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 644 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXTENDING FROM
JEFFERSON TO NEAR WINDER TO GRAYSON TO CLARKSTON TO NEAR UNION
CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ATLANTA...DECATUR...WINDER...JEFFERSON...EAST POINT...UNION CITY...
FOREST PARK...SNELLVILLE...COLLEGE PARK...LOGANVILLE...CLARKSTON...
HAPEVILLE...STONE MOUNTAIN...AVONDALE ESTATES...GRAYSON...STATHAM...
ARCADE...NICHOLSON...PINE LAKE AND BETHLEHEM.

LAT...LON 3379 8433 3400 8375 3413 8360 3413 8330
      3396 8358 3382 8399 3359 8448 3360 8465
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 257DEG 21KT 3413 8357 3402 8368 3392 8397 3381
8426 3363 8458

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
713 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

GAZ038-039-050-051-190015-
TALIAFERRO GA-OGLETHORPE GA-GREENE GA-WILKES GA-
713 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TALIAFERRO...
OGLETHORPE...NORTHEASTERN GREENE AND WILKES COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
EDT...

AT 712 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS SOUTHEAST OF LEXINGTON...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WASHINGTON...LEXINGTON...TIGNALL...WOODVILLE...RAYLE...CELESTE...
CARTERS GROVE...JACKSONS CROSSROADS...DELHI...NEWTOWN...METASVILLE...
FLORAL HILL...MALLORYSVILLE...NORMAN...DANBURG...PHILOMATH AND
HUTCHINGS.

LAT...LON 3367 8310 3384 8317 3399 8286 3399 8284
      3397 8278 3398 8269 3399 8266 3399 8265
      3387 8261 3384 8259 3383 8260 3375 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 251DEG 23KT 3378 8305

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

GAZ034-035-047-182345-
GWINNETT GA-BARROW GA-WALTON GA-
715 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GWINNETT...
SOUTHWESTERN BARROW AND NORTHWESTERN WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
EDT...

AT 715 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR GRAYSON...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LAWRENCEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
LAWRENCEVILLE...WINDER...SNELLVILLE...LOGANVILLE...DACULA...
GRAYSON...STATHAM...BETHLEHEM...NICHOLASVILLE...GRATIS...CAMPTON...
RUSSELL...BOLD SPRINGS...FORT YARGO STATE PARK...HARBIN AND WINDSOR.

LAT...LON 3402 8362 3392 8362 3391 8364 3389 8363
      3389 8362 3382 8362 3384 8398 3395 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 264DEG 19KT 3391 8387

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

GAZ113-190015-
TOOMBS GA-
738 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TOOMBS COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM EDT...

AT 737 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LYONS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
LYONS...SANTA CLAUS...PONDEROSA AND OHOOPEE.

LAT...LON 3214 8220 3209 8220 3209 8227 3214 8234
      3229 8230 3231 8224 3224 8221 3221 8221
      3216 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 227DEG 16KT 3218 8225

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
804 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N SALEM               33.74N  83.39W
08/18/2015                   OCONEE             GA   PUBLIC

            GREENBRIAR CREEK IS OVERFLOWING ITS BANKS NEAR THE
            GEORGIA NATURE CENTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500643

NLIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
836 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

GAZ053>055-057-190115-
HENRY GA-CLAYTON GA-COWETA GA-FAYETTE GA-
836 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HENRY...SOUTHERN
CLAYTON...NORTHEASTERN COWETA AND FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
EDT...

AT 835 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR FAYETTEVILLE TO NEAR EAST NEWNAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
NEWNAN...FAYETTEVILLE...JONESBORO...PEACHTREE CITY...STOCKBRIDGE...
RIVERDALE...HAMPTON...TYRONE...LOVEJOY...SENOIA...SHARPSBURG...
TURIN...WOOLSEY...EAST NEWNAN...IRONDALE...INMAN...THE ATLANTA MOTOR
SPEEDWAY...THOMAS CROSSROADS...BONANZA AND FLIPPEN.

LAT...LON 3354 8445 3350 8417 3340 8422 3335 8435
      3335 8438 3334 8439 3327 8468 3340 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 283DEG 16KT 3348 8445 3337 8474