Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING BETWEEN
NOON AND 10 PM... WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER SEVERE LIMITS... AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY... AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AS CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE.

THE GREATER CONVECTIVE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FLOODING
AS ENTRENCHED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SUPPORTS LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS... EVEN FROM SHOWERS... THAT CAN QUICKLY DUMP 1-3 INCHES
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY FLASHY... FLOOD
PRONE CREEKS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OR MORE.

OTHERWISE... WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS AS AMPLE LOWS
CLOUDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLD LOWS IN THE 70S... AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HELP HOLD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MOSTLY IN THE
80S... EXCEPT SOME LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. GFS
HAS LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THUS STRUGGLES TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH BUT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND EARLIER ECMWF TO KEEP CONSISTENCY. OTHERWISE
HAVE REFRESHED OTHER FIELDS WITH LATEST BLEND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN IN LONG TERM PERIOD TRANSITIONS FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY STATES ON WED TO ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND FINALLY WEAK NW FLOW/UPR RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A HINT OF A
MDT FROPA ON MONDAY. WITH THE FIRST TWO PATTERNS...SE CONUS SHOULD
REMAIN IN MOIST PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE WEEKEND. NO
ONE DAY SEEMS TO STAND OUT WITH PRECIP CHCS NOR DO ANY DAYS SEEM
TO HAVE CHC FOR SVR OR EVEN STRONG DEEP CONVECTION. MED RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WPC PREFERRING BLEND OF ALL 00Z
OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR FEATURES AFFECTING CWA THRU DAY 7.

TROPICAL ACTIVITY REMAINS SUBDUED. COLD CORE UPPER LOW OFF
CAROLINA COAST...WHICH HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN CREATING STAGNANT
PATTERN OF LATE AND MAY BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE...SHOULD GET
PICKED UP BY UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIFT AWAY FROM EAST
COAST. LOW LATITUDE DISTURBANCE AT 35W LONGITUDE THAT TPC IS
TRACKING COULD DEVELOP INTO A NAMED STORM BUT PROGGED TO REMAIN ON
WESTERLY COURSE WITH MEAGER INTENSITY BY ECMWF AND GFS. BY NO
MEANS A GUARANTEE BUT THATS THE LATEST 411.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING... WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING... THEN A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD OVER ALL TAF SITES BY 08-10Z WED IF NOT SOONER. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY 17-18Z WED. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST...
GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS WITH STRONG GUSTS AROUND CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF IFR/MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON WED
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  89  73  89 /  70  70  50  60
ATLANTA         73  87  73  87 /  70  70  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     67  81  68  80 /  80  80  60  70
CARTERSVILLE    70  87  72  86 /  80  80  60  70
COLUMBUS        74  89  74  90 /  70  70  40  60
GAINESVILLE     71  85  72  85 /  70  70  50  70
MACON           73  91  74  91 /  70  70  40  50
ROME            71  86  72  85 /  80  80  60  70
PEACHTREE CITY  72  88  72  88 /  70  70  50  70
VIDALIA         74  91  75  92 /  60  70  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....SNELSON/BAKER
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1202 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191130-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1202 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG... OR EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH... FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD CAUSE BRIEF
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS. THE MORE FAVORABLE TIME
FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE LIKELY
HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
457 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

GAZ071-081-082-094-182130-
CRAWFORD GA-PEACH GA-MONROE GA-BIBB GA-
457 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...NORTHERN
PEACH...SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PAYNE CITY...OR 8
MILES WEST OF MACON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MACON...PAYNE...PAYNE CITY...WESLEYAN...RUTLAND...SKIPPERTON...
LIZELLA...MUSELLA...LAKE TOBESOFKEE...SANDY POINT...ARKWRIGHT...
BOLINGBROKE AND JACK BROWN ESTATES.

LAT...LON 3263 8391 3281 8407 3297 8382 3294 8370
      3292 8370 3289 8366 3289 8361 3273 8360
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 231DEG 22KT 3281 8378

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
459 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

GAZ107-109-182130-
DODGE GA-PULASKI GA-
459 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DODGE AND SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 459 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER EASTMAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
EASTMAN...UNION...GODWINSVILLE AND PLAINFIELD.

LAT...LON 3208 8325 3212 8335 3223 8333 3236 8312
      3216 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 237DEG 14KT 3221 8320

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
504 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

GAZ013-014-021-022-182130-
DAWSON GA-PICKENS GA-CHEROKEE GA-FORSYTH GA-
504 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON...
SOUTHEASTERN PICKENS...NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHWESTERN FORSYTH
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 503 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BALL GROUND...OR 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF CANTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CANTON...BALL GROUND...NELSON...BUFFINGTON...MARBLEHILL...
LATHEMTOWN...HIGHTOWER...MCKEE...JUNO...HOLLIS LATHEM RESERVOIR...
TATE AND REAVIS MOUNTAIN.

LAT...LON 3450 8415 3448 8412 3426 8419 3422 8450
      3440 8453 3451 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 255DEG 23KT 3434 8441

DJN