Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

.UPDATE...
MCV NOTED IN THE FLOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AL. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN
GA. HI-RES MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE GOING UNTIL THE STATE LINE.
HAVE RAISED POPS AND RE-ORIENTED THEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 40
TO 50 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR. THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SHOWERS HANGING AROUND ALL NIGHT WITHIN
THE MOIST ATMOS. DO THINK COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS
HEATING GETS GOING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ALTHOUGH
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WITH LITTLE WIND SHEAR... A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
WHERE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS ANY
TRAINING OF STORMS COULD DUMP AROUND 2-3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME... RESULTING IN THE PONDING OF WATER ACROSS LOW FLYING... FLOOD
PRONE AREAS. A FEW FLASHY CREEKS COULD BRIEFLY COME OUT OF THEIR
BANKS... BUT FOR FOR THE MOST PART... NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS EXPECTED
AS MOST STREAMS AND RIVERS COULD USE THE RAIN.

OTHERWISE... AMPLE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SUGGEST LEANING TOWARD
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS AND COOLER HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
BLEND OF THE WARMER MAV LOWS AND COOLER MET HIGHS WITH PERSISTENCE
LOOKED REASONABLE.

39

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED BUT OTHERWISE
CONTINUED WET PATTERN IN STORE THROUGH DAY 7. DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE
LONG TERM WITH RATHER HIGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE STAYS PARKED OVER FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO PUTTING GA IN VERY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS MOIST FLOW WILL BE
ENHANCED WITH A FEW WAVES MOVING THROUGH BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THINGS WEAKEN A BIT
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE WEST PUTTING GA IN MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE TOP SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE FLOW REMAINS MOIST...BUT
WITH OUT A DIRECT GULF CONNECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATERS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY STAY IN THE 2 INCH RANGE THEN SLACK OFF A BIT INTO
THE WEEKEND INTO THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO STAY
IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR LOWS AND 80S TO 90S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS KEEPS MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
LIGHT RAIN/SHRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THE
COVERAGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR IFR RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE...ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE
OF SHOWERS SWITCHED TO THE SW. THE DIRECTION MAY WAFFLE BETWEEN
200-170 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOULD DEFINITELY SWITCH
OVER THE SW AFTER 06Z AND STAY THERE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  85  72  87 /  80  70  60  60
ATLANTA         73  85  73  86 /  60  70  60  60
BLAIRSVILLE     66  78  67  80 /  80  70  60  70
CARTERSVILLE    70  84  71  85 /  80  70  60  70
COLUMBUS        73  88  75  89 /  50  70  60  60
GAINESVILLE     71  82  72  83 /  80  70  60  60
MACON           73  88  74  90 /  60  70  60  60
ROME            71  84  72  85 /  80  70  60  70
PEACHTREE CITY  72  85  72  86 /  60  70  60  60
VIDALIA         73  90  74  90 /  70  70  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...

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