Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE CWFA IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY...AND CROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS HAVE BEGUN TO CREEP UP ACROSS THE CWFA...A SIGN OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TODAY AHEAD OF THE FROPA. HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL WRF AND THE HRRR DO
DIFFER A BIT...WITH THE WRF BEING LATER WITH THE CONVECTION. HAVE
TRIED TO COMPROMISE ON TIMING. BOTH MODELS...HOWEVER...INDICATE VERY
GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN GA TODAY. SO...HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY IN THAT REGION.

ATMOS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. GOOD
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...WITH AN ASSIST BY A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP LAPSE
RATES FAIRLY WEAK...BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT.
COPIOUS CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP LIMIT SEVERE STORM COVERAGE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAYS CONVECTION SHOULD BE ANY
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS TOMORROW.

TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES DUE TO
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. TEMP/DEWPOINT VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE SHORT TERM LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSHING JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE THRU THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. HAVE TRENDED CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY AND ADVECTION
OF ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN FROM THE NW WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
PLEASANT WED AND THURS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND
RESULTANT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 40S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...A BROAD/WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING FOR
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE ATLANTIC. HAVE CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE A RETURN OF SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...MAINLY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. NO OTHER CLEAR
FORCING MECHANISM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD AND RATHER STAGNANT AIRMASS IN PLACE SO DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME OUTFLOW DRIVEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MIDWEEK BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
WITH ENHANCED CLOUD COVERAGE.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND ALL TAF
SITES. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED
OVER NE AL AND MOVING ESE. HI-RES MODELS BRING TH MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO THE NW ACROSS THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES BETWEEN 20-
24Z. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPO TSRA 20-24Z FOR NOW... WITH VCSH
HANDLING THE CURRENT SHOWERS UNTIL 20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT... WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN OVER MOST TAF
SITES BY 09Z TUE... THEN PERSIST THROUGH 15-16Z TUE. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF ATLANTA TAF SITES BY 17-18Z... WITH A
DRIER NW FLOW SPREADING VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
/39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  72  89  71 /  40  40  30  30
ATLANTA         90  74  88  72 /  40  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     84  67  83  63 /  60  40  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    90  71  88  68 /  60  40  30  20
COLUMBUS        93  76  91  74 /  40  30  40  40
GAINESVILLE     87  72  87  71 /  60  40  30  20
MACON           92  74  90  73 /  40  30  40  40
ROME            91  72  89  68 /  60  40  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  91  72  89  70 /  40  30  30  30
VIDALIA         92  73  92  74 /  30  20  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1156 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111600-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1156 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND SETTLE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LAGRANGE TO WASHINGTON LINE. HIGHEST CHANCES
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING PERIOD. DAMAGING WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREATS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVE STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL.
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES OF STORMS RETURN TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY
GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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