Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION
MOVING INTO FAR NW GA THIS AFTERNOON... AND HIRES MODELS SUPPORT
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTH GA THROUGH 8 TO 9 PM THIS EVENING. TIMING TOOL INDICATES THESE
STRONG STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN 6 PM
AND 9 PM THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG
AND EVEN A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK INDICATED. EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO DIVE SOUTH TOWARD THE COLUMBUS AND MACON AREAS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HOUR... BUT EXPECT A
WEAKENING TREND BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH GA BY 6-8 AM TUE
MORNING... THEN ACROSS ATLANTA METRO AREA SOMETIME EARLY-MID TUE
AFTERNOON. ALL THIS WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A CHANCE A SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT... WITH DIMINISHING
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA ON TUE WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS
AGREE ON THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT...
WARRANTING DECREASING POPS OVER CENTRAL GA AT THAT TIME.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 0.5 TO
1.0 INCHES... SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS... BUT
SHOULD SEE HIGHS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA ON TUE HOLD IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING COOLER LOWS FOR TUE NIGHT
FOR AT LEAST NORTH GA... WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S NORTH OF
ATLANTA... LOWER 70S ATLANTA AND SOUTHWARD. ENJOY.

39

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AND INTO SOUTHERN GA IN THE
INITIAL LONG TERM PERIODS. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TIMING. HAVE ALSO MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

31

/ISSUED 413 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015/
GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE SHORT TERM LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSHING JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE THRU THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. HAVE TRENDED CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY AND ADVECTION
OF ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN FROM THE NW WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
PLEASANT WED AND THURS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND
RESULTANT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 40S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...A BROAD/WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING FOR
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE ATLANTIC. HAVE CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE A RETURN OF SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...MAINLY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. NO OTHER CLEAR
FORCING MECHANISM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD AND RATHER STAGNANT AIRMASS IN PLACE SO DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME OUTFLOW DRIVEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MIDWEEK BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
WITH ENHANCED CLOUD COVERAGE.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND ALL TAF
SITES. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED
OVER NE AL AND MOVING ESE. HI-RES MODELS BRING THE MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO THE NW ACROSS THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES BETWEEN 20-
24Z. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPO TSRA 20-24Z FOR NOW... WITH VCSH
HANDLING THE CURRENT SHOWERS UNTIL 20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT... WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN OVER MOST
TAF SITES BY 09Z TUE... THEN PERSIST THROUGH 15-16Z TUE. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF ATLANTA TAF SITES BY 17-18Z...
WITH A DRIER NW FLOW SPREADING VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA TUE
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
/39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  88  71  91 /  50  40  30  10
ATLANTA         74  88  72  89 /  60  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     67  82  64  85 /  60  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    71  88  69  89 /  60  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        75  92  73  93 /  40  40  40  20
GAINESVILLE     72  85  71  87 /  60  30  20  10
MACON           73  90  73  92 /  40  50  40  20
ROME            72  88  69  89 /  60  30  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  73  88  71  89 /  60  30  30  10
VIDALIA         73  91  74  92 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1156 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111600-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1156 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND SETTLE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LAGRANGE TO WASHINGTON LINE. HIGHEST CHANCES
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING PERIOD. DAMAGING WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREATS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVE STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL.
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES OF STORMS RETURN TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY
GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
544 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEVELAND               34.60N  83.76W
08/10/2015                   WHITE              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THREE TREES DOWN IN THE
            CLEVELAND AREA. ONE WAS DOWN AT EACH OF THE FOLLOWING
            LOCATIONS...HWY 129 AND HULSEY ROAD...GREEN STREET AND
            TOWN CREEK ROAD AT 75 SOUTH. AT THE GREEN STREET
            LOCATION...A TREE FELL ON A HOUSE BUT NO MAJOR DAMAGE
            WAS REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500623

JLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
546 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE PINK              34.59N  83.70W
08/10/2015                   WHITE              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT HWY 115 E AND
            PLESS ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500624

JLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
553 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E JUNO                34.48N  84.16W
08/10/2015                   DAWSON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THE DAWSON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED MULTIPLE
            TREES DOWN NEAR GROVER BURT ROAD AND HWY 136.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500625

JLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
553 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

GAZ080-102230-
TAYLOR GA-
553 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM EDT...

AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BUTLER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BUTLER...RUPERT...POTTERVILLE AND CHARING.

LAT...LON 3238 8432 3240 8432 3240 8434 3246 8440
      3259 8426 3252 8410 3251 8411 3250 8413
      3240 8420 3240 8425 3237 8425 3237 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 309DEG 8KT 3248 8427

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

GAZ049-050-060-102230-
MORGAN GA-GREENE GA-PUTNAM GA-
554 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN...
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE AND NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
EDT...

AT 554 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BUCKHEAD...OR NEAR MADISON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MADISON...GREENSBORO...BUCKHEAD...REYNOLDS PLANTATION...PHOENIX...
SWORDS...PARKS MILL...HARMONY...CAREY AND GRESHAMVILLE.

LAT...LON 3350 8353 3367 8344 3364 8311 3335 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 295DEG 13KT 3356 8341

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
555 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AMICALOLA               34.55N  84.25W
08/10/2015                   DAWSON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THE DAWSON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED ONE TREE
            DOWN ON HWY 52. THE TREE WAS BLOCKING THE HIGHWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500626

JLF