Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
316 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A SIMILAR
REGIME ON TAP AS BROAD RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND LACK OF
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER MECHANISMS KEEP THE AREA IN A RELATIVELY BENIGN
PATTERN. HAVE GONE SLIGHT POPS AREA WIDE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AS
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN STILL BE ATTAINED
WITH COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
NORTH...AND ANY WEAK LEE TROUGH PRESENT. TEMPS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY
WARMER WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN THICKNESSES...AND VALUES ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GA WILL SEE HEAT INDICES RETURN TO NEAR 100 BUT SHY OF ANY
ADVISORY CONCERNS.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN AS IT SHIFTS TO THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE STATE...ENHANCING POP CHANCES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

/ISSUED 419 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/
THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A 594DM
RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FROM TEXAS THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME ON BOARD WITH ANTICIPATED HOT
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE VALUES IN THE
UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED. FORTUNATELY...DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN ONLY MODEST INCREASE IN HEAT INDICES WITH VALUES AROUND
100. STILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. DESPITE THE DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE...ELSEWHERE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE PLENTIFUL AND HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE EVER SO SLIGHTLY FOR
THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME PERIODS.

RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR NW
FLOW ALOFT AND A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION INTO A FULL BLOWN EAST COAST TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA. WILL HOLD POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW BUT IF
TRENDS CONTINUE...CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A NUMEROUS TYPE PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

DEESE

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
MVFR VSBY REDUCTION IN THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. CU FIELD IN
AFTERNOON PERIODS GENERALLY 4-5 KFT AND SOME CIRRUS POSSIBLE.
WINDS GENERALLY WEST AT 5-7 KTS WITH LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THOUGH ISOLATED POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON PERIODS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON EARLY MORNING VSBYS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  97  71  95 /  20  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  94  75  93 /  20  20  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     68  89  67  87 /  20  20  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    69  95  69  93 /  20  20  10  20
COLUMBUS        74  96  75  95 /  20  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     73  94  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
MACON           72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
ROME            69  95  69  94 /  20  20  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  94  70  93 /  20  20  10  20
VIDALIA         74  96  75  96 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...BAKER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

GAZ034-045-082015-
DE KALB GA-GWINNETT GA-
341 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN DE KALB AND
GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SNELLVILLE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LAWRENCEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCHE CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS DE KALB AND GWINNETT COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
LAWRENCEVILLE...SNELLVILLE...LILBURN...LOGANVILLE...GRAYSON...
MOUNTAIN PARK AND ROSEBUD.

DRIVERS SHOULD ALSO USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

LAT...LON 3397 8396 3384 8391 3378 8399 3374 8413
      3391 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 263DEG 9KT 3385 8406

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
352 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

GAZ080-082015-
TAYLOR GA-
352 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 351 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BUTLER...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
           ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN
           EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR
           DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
           AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO
           TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BUTLER...RUPERT...POTTERVILLE...CHARING AND FICKLING MILL.

LAT...LON 3243 8437 3259 8439 3267 8414 3251 8410
      3251 8411 3250 8413 3243 8417 3242 8419
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 263DEG 9KT 3253 8430