Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
316 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A SIMILAR
REGIME ON TAP AS BROAD RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND LACK OF
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER MECHANISMS KEEP THE AREA IN A RELATIVELY BENIGN
PATTERN. HAVE GONE SLIGHT POPS AREA WIDE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AS
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN STILL BE ATTAINED
WITH COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
NORTH...AND ANY WEAK LEE TROUGH PRESENT. TEMPS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY
WARMER WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN THICKNESSES...AND VALUES ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GA WILL SEE HEAT INDICES RETURN TO NEAR 100 BUT SHY OF ANY
ADVISORY CONCERNS.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN AS IT SHIFTS TO THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE STATE...ENHANCING POP CHANCES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

/ISSUED 419 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/
THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A 594DM
RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FROM TEXAS THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME ON BOARD WITH ANTICIPATED HOT
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE VALUES IN THE
UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED. FORTUNATELY...DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN ONLY MODEST INCREASE IN HEAT INDICES WITH VALUES AROUND
100. STILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. DESPITE THE DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE...ELSEWHERE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE PLENTIFUL AND HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE EVER SO SLIGHTLY FOR
THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME PERIODS.

RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR NW
FLOW ALOFT AND A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION INTO A FULL BLOWN EAST COAST TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA. WILL HOLD POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW BUT IF
TRENDS CONTINUE...CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A NUMEROUS TYPE PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

DEESE

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
MVFR VSBY REDUCTION IN THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. CU FIELD IN
AFTERNOON PERIODS GENERALLY 4-5 KFT AND SOME CIRRUS POSSIBLE.
WINDS GENERALLY WEST AT 5-7 KTS WITH LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THOUGH ISOLATED POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON PERIODS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON EARLY MORNING VSBYS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  97  71  95 /  20  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  94  75  93 /  20  20  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     68  89  67  87 /  20  20  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    69  95  69  93 /  20  20  10  20
COLUMBUS        74  96  75  95 /  20  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     73  94  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
MACON           72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
ROME            69  95  69  94 /  20  20  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  94  70  93 /  20  20  10  20
VIDALIA         74  96  75  96 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...BAKER

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