Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
139 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN GA SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD BE
MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE AND ISOLD/SCT IN COVERAGE. FURTHER
SOUTH...MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED GOOD HEATING UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GA. OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...HAVE NOTICED A FEW HOLES DEVELOP IN THE
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL MS. DO THINK THE FIRST
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MAY REACH US SOMETIME DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS.
THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS RAIN RE-DEVELOPING IN THE WEST BY 7-8PM. THIS
IS WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...SO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS
NOW AND WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.

HAVE ALSO BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN UNDER THE RAIN SHIELD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
THE START OF INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN PRETTY SOGGY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TOWARDS MID MORNING.

NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  70  85  69 / 100  50  60  40
ATLANTA         80  71  84  70 / 100  60  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     74  64  78  63 /  90  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    80  68  83  67 / 100  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  50  60  60  40
GAINESVILLE     80  69  82  68 / 100  60  60  50
MACON           86  71  89  70 /  40  40  60  40
ROME            80  69  83  68 / 100  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  81  70  84  69 / 100  60  60  40
VIDALIA         91  71  91  72 /  40  40  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1045 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1045 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...
...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH GEORGIA...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ALONG AREA STREAMS...
CREEKS AND FLOOD PRONE LOW LYING AREAS.

DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY 10 PM
THIS EVENING. THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS STRONG
STORMS MOVE EAST FROM ALABAMA. TRAINING OF STORMS OVER ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS IS LIKELY AND WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE GREATEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
AND A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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