Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
323 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
HAS YET AGAIN CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN OUR
CWA...SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL RATES
WILL ALSO BE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE.

WHILE THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA.

THE CWA WILL STILL RESIDE IN THE SAME ACTIVE PATTERN LEADING INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON FRIDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE SHORT
TERN DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

RW

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG WAVE TROUGH ISNT PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO THE CWFA WILL REMAIN IN THE UNSETTLED NW FLOW PATTERN.
THIS MEANS POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL DROP SE IN THE FLOW...ACCOMPANIED
BY AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT BY MID WEEK AND BECOME MORE ZONAL.
THE GULF WILL BE OPEN FOR BUSINESS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE CWFA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE MADE...WITH SOME HIGHER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VRB WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT AFFECTS
THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
8-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL RETURN FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  86  70  86 /  50  40  30  40
ATLANTA         72  84  71  85 /  50  40  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  77  64  76 /  70  60  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    70  83  68  82 /  70  60  50  60
COLUMBUS        73  90  73  89 /  30  30  20  40
GAINESVILLE     70  81  69  81 /  60  60  40  50
MACON           71  90  71  91 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  83  69  82 /  70  60  50  60
PEACHTREE CITY  71  85  70  87 /  50  40  30  40
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS... FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY HAIL UP TO 1 INCH. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING ALONG
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE... ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO
LINE. HOWEVER... AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ANYWHERE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS... AND A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
442 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

GAZ035-037-047-049-022115-
MORGAN GA-OCONEE GA-BARROW GA-WALTON GA-
442 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN...OCONEE...BARROW AND
WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 442 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED OVER BETWEEN...OR
NEAR MONROE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MONROE...WATKINSVILLE...LOGANVILLE...WALNUT GROVE...NORTH HIGH
SHOALS...BOSTWICK...BETWEEN...GOOD HOPE...BISHOP...JERSEY...
NICHOLASVILLE...GRATIS...CAMPTON...EBENEZER...BOLD SPRINGS...
PANNELL...HERNDONVILLE...YOUTH...WINDSOR AND EASTVILLE.

LAT...LON 3390 8341 3361 8346 3375 8390 3387 8387
      3392 8381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 280DEG 24KT 3383 8379

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
448 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

GAZ097-108>113-022145-
WHEELER GA-DODGE GA-MONTGOMERY GA-LAURENS GA-TOOMBS GA-TELFAIR GA-
WILCOX GA-
448 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHEELER...DODGE...MONTGOMERY...
LAURENS...TOOMBS...TELFAIR AND WILCOX COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 448 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED OVER MCRAE...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MCRAE...ALAMO...MOUNT VERNON...HELENA...LUMBER CITY...GLENWOOD...
MILAN...UVALDA...AILEY...RHINE...SCOTLAND...CHAUNCEY...ALSTON...
JACKSONVILLE...TOWNS...WORKMORE...CEDAR CROSSING...ROCK SPRINGS...
CHARLOTTEVILLE AND CHINA HILL.

LAT...LON 3178 8303 3181 8309 3181 8314 3185 8318
      3185 8326 3187 8331 3234 8291 3212 8229
      3194 8237 3197 8248 3197 8250 3196 8248
      3195 8249 3196 8257 3193 8259 3192 8268
      3178 8287 3179 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 274DEG 39KT 3206 8286

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