Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1042 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
RELATIVELY INACTIVE SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE MARKED BY ACTIVE PATTERN AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN A DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW FUNNEL
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INTERACTION OF THESE DISTURBANCES WITH A
MOIST...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING CONVECTION TRENDS...WITH NONE OF THE MODELS
REALLY HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE
AND HIGHEST SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
GENERALLY NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THIS
AREA.

THE MAIN THREATS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ANOMALOUS MODELED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK...PARTICULARLY OF LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. SPC DOES HAVE MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY...WITH A SMALL SLIVER
OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA IN THE HIGHER SLIGHT RISK AREA.

ON A SIDE NOTE...NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST 1 KM REFLECTIVITY SEEMED TO
DO WELL WITH OVERALL CONVECTION TRENDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE 00Z RUN SEEMS TO PARALLEL CURRENT FORECAST THINKING WITH
BEST POPS STAYING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE UNDER-UTILIZED
THIS PRODUCT IN THE PAST AND CAN NOT SPEAK TO ITS OVERALL SKILL IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT YET.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE SCALED
BACK DAYTIME/EVENING LIKELY POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH...AND
THEN JUST GOOD CHANCE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
FRIDAY...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE SEEMS LESS IMPRESSIVE AS OF NOW. HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LESS POPS FOR FRIDAY...BUT STILL IN
THE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORIES.

OVERALL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE MID AND
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH PARKED OVER THE AREA. MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500
J/KG CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WEEKEND... AND
WITH ADDED FORCING FROM OUTFLOWS AND UPPER DISTURBANCES... A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER... DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 15-20KTS REMAIN RATHER MODEST... SUGGESTING MOST STORMS
SHOULD HOLD BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
PEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA... BUT ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
SHEARING EASTWARD BY MONDAY... WITH WEAK RIDGING POSSIBLY
SETTLING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL
REMAIN OPTIMISTIC... AND JUST SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS EACH DAY
AS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. SW-W WINDS AT 6-10KT TODAY
WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 4-8KT OVERNIGHT.
VRB WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE IN/NEAR CONVECTION. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS EXITING NORTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT ALREADY SEEING SOME
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT. BEST TS CHANCES WILL BE 18-00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  87  70  89 /  40  50  40  40
ATLANTA         70  85  71  85 /  50  50  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  78  64  78 /  70  60  60  70
CARTERSVILLE    70  84  68  83 /  70  60  50  60
COLUMBUS        73  91  72  91 /  30  40  40  40
GAINESVILLE     68  83  69  84 /  60  60  40  60
MACON           72  90  71  93 /  30  40  40  40
ROME            70  85  69  84 /  70  60  50  70
PEACHTREE CITY  70  86  70  87 /  50  50  40  50
VIDALIA         74  92  73  93 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS... FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY HAIL UP TO 1 INCH. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING ALONG
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE... ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO
LINE. HOWEVER... AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ANYWHERE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS... AND A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1228 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

GAZ005>007-021700-
GILMER GA-MURRAY GA-FANNIN GA-
1228 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILMER...MURRAY AND FANNIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

AT 1228 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED 11 MILES NORTH OF
ETON...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF BENTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BLUE RIDGE...HIGDON...JONES MILL...CISCO...TENNGA...EPWORTH...
GREGORY...COLWELL...COHUTTA WILDERNESS...MINERAL BLUFF AND
COPPERHILL.

LAT...LON 3499 8425 3478 8430 3490 8481 3499 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 280DEG 32KT 3498 8471

DJN