Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
325 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY
WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE HIGH-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY PRODUCTS.
12Z KFFC SOUNDING SHOWED SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE 500-300MB
LAYER...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED TO SOME EXTENT WITH LATENT HEAT TRANSFER
FROM YESTERDAYS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION AND A SLIGHT EASTWARD
SURGE IN THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. INSTABILITY IS
MODERATE BUT SHEAR REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL OUTLOOK FITS THIS
WELL. UPPER FORCING INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPER INTO THE REGION. SHEAR...ALTHOUGH STILL
ONLY MARGINAL OVER NORTH GEORGIA...IS INCREASING AS WELL BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
MARGINAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALSO.

20

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AND STORMY.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES
OF THE LONG TERM AS WE ARE HEADED INTO A MORE DYNAMIC PATTERN WITH
THE LONG AWAITED RETURN OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS
OUT WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS TO LIKELY IN THE NORTH AS AN AREA OF
ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE PHASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.
THEN ON THE HEELS OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE FROM THE NW SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND SO SOME MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE MODES ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE SHAPING UP TO BE SOME OF THE MORE PLEASANT
DAYS IN ABOUT THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS...AS THERMAL PROFILES
INDICATE A NICE DRY COLUMN WITH A GOOD MIDLEVEL CAP IN THE POST-
FRONTAL REGIME. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE EVEN THE LOW TO MID
80S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY THEN MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STAYS WEST OF THE
AREA...GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM INFLUENCING THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THEN MORE ACTIVE
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FCST PWATS BY MIDWEEK LOOK RATHER
HIGH IN THE 1.5-1.75 RANGE OR EVEN HIGHER SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OF BEING RATHER EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON ANY IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE UPPER FLOW
NEXT WEEK...STILL HOLDING ONTO THE POSSIBILITY OF A ROGUE MCS OR
TWO POTENTIALLY COMING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
06Z-14Z. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE GENERALLY 20Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THUNDER AT ALL
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY...GENERALLY
10KT OR LESS WITH VARIABLE WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS OVER 25KT IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
HIGH FOR REMAINING ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  92  72  87 /  30  60  60  80
ATLANTA         75  89  73  84 /  30  60  60  80
BLAIRSVILLE     67  88  69  77 /  20  60  80  80
CARTERSVILLE    72  90  73  83 /  20  60  70  80
COLUMBUS        75  89  73  87 /  30  60  60  80
GAINESVILLE     73  90  71  83 /  20  60  70  80
MACON           74  91  73  90 /  30  60  60  80
ROME            72  90  72  83 /  20  60  70  80
PEACHTREE CITY  73  89  72  85 /  30  60  60  80
VIDALIA         74  93  74  92 /  30  40  40  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
434 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-260845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
434 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM WEDNESDAYS CONVECTION WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. UP TO 1 INCH HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

DUE TO THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BRIEF FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALSO SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD. SOME STORMS
REACHING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH
PERIODS. DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. UP TO 1 INCH HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OTHER
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST ON TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF GREATER CHANCES. STAY
TUNED TO FUTURE UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
431 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

GAZ020-252115-
BARTOW GA-
431 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN BARTOW COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 429 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER KINGSTON...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CARTERSVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS BARTOW COUNTY THROUGH 515
PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
CARTERSVILLE...ADAIRSVILLE...EUHARLEE...EMERSON...WHITE...KINGSTON...
TAYLORSVILLE...CASSVILLE...PINE LOG...RED TOP MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...
STILESBORO AND GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER ST PK.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

TAYLORSVILLE...CASSVILLE...PINE LOG...RED TOP MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...
STILESBORO AND GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER ST PK.

DRIVERS SHOULD ALSO USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

LAT...LON 3421 8504 3421 8502 3425 8502 3425 8501
      3426 8502 3435 8502 3435 8501 3436 8500
      3437 8465 3435 8464 3435 8465 3408 8466
      3408 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 293DEG 14KT 3422 8494

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
449 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

GAZ019-030-252115-
POLK GA-FLOYD GA-
449 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN POLK AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 448 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CEDARTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS POLK AND FLOYD COUNTIES
THROUGH 515 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
CEDARTOWN...ROCKMART...ARAGON...CAVE SPRING...BRASWELL...FISH
CREEK...VAN WERT...ANTIOCH AND SENEY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN A SHORT TIME ARE
POSSIBLE. DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

LAT...LON 3411 8538 3414 8521 3409 8505 3408 8505
      3408 8501 3406 8493 3396 8498 3395 8505
      3391 8505 3391 8521 3390 8522 3390 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 306DEG 9KT 3407 8519

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
504 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             KINGSTON                34.24N  84.95W
06/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       BARTOW             GA   PUBLIC

            EMPLOYEE OF JUMPING JEREMYS MOONWALKS REPORTED QUARTER
            SIZE HAIL....AT THE COMPANY LOCATION JUST DUE WEST OF
            KINGSTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500443

KOVACIK

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