Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
825 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND EXPIRED THE HEAT
ADVISORY.

OTHER CHANGES TO THE GRIDS INCLUDE TAKING IN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND ADJUSTING POPS. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY TEMP/DEW GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FLATTEN AND RETREAT TO THE WEST.
STRONG HEATING AND WEAKENING UPPER SUPPRESSION HAS LED TO SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY PEAK IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN NOW AND
SUNDOWN. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND THAT
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HAIL AN INCH OR LESS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE I WILL BE KEEPING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT
STILL EXERTING SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA SO SOME INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT STILL
CHANCE POPS AT BEST FOR RIGHT NOW. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN.

THURSDAY TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS. PLEASE
SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

11

PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY/...

GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE FORECAST AS WE SHIFT
INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THE LONG AWAITED RETURN OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...PROGGED TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STARTING
FRIDAY. WHILE IT IS A WELCOMED CHANGE FOR COOLER TEMPS...IT WILL
HAVE TO COME WITH A SIDE EFFECT OF MORE ACTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL AS
WE BECOME SUSCEPTIBLE FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING ALONG THE UPPER
FLOW. THE FIRST OF WHICH PHASES WITH AN ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELD FROM
THE SOUTH AND SHOULD BRING LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
FRIDAY. QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THIS...MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS SOME SUBTLE DISCREPANCIES ON STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS...IT IS STILL RATHER ROBUST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND BRINGS SOME MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...THEREFORE HAS
POTENTIAL OF MORE ORGANIZED STORM MODES. HAVE GONE LIKELY POPS AREA
WIDE FOR SATURDAY WITH EVEN SOME CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE NORTH.
STORM TOTAL QPF FROM THE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SUNDAY PERIOD RESULT IN
UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES FOR THE FAR NORTH TO NEAR 1 INCH IN CENTRAL
GA...THOUGH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE.

POST-FRONTAL SUNDAY SHOULD HAVE TEMPS FEELING DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT
COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE HAD TO DEAL WITH THE LAST FEW WEEKS AND
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK IN POPS THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STAYS WEST OF
THE AREA AND MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE FLOW GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE MCS OR TWO POSSIBLY COMING ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR MORE FOCUSED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANYTIME
AFTER MONDAY. TO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ATTM FOR GREATER THAN LOW
END CHANCE POPS.

BAKER

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 06-24 WEDNESDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     105 1930     74 1991     78 1944     53 1947
   KATL      99 1988     74 1991     78 1930     54 1972
                1930
   KMCN     101 1988     77 1991     77 1932     53 1947
                1930        1963
   KCSG     100 1988     80 1963     78 2010     57 1972
                1981
                1951

RECORDS FOR 06-25 THURSDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     105 1914     72 1979     76 1931     58 1922
   KATL     100 1914     70 1991     76 2010     59 1889
                                        1952
                                        1914
   KMCN     103 1914     74 1928     77 1930     59 1990
                                        1914
   KCSG     101 1988     76 1963     76 2010     61 1974
                                        1996

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION NW OF THE AIRFIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TOWARDS
THE STATE LINE. PATCHY MVFR FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW
DURING PEAK HEATING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  94  75  93 /  30  30  30  60
ATLANTA         77  93  75  90 /  30  40  30  60
BLAIRSVILLE     68  89  69  86 /  60  30  20  60
CARTERSVILLE    74  92  74  89 /  60  40  30  70
COLUMBUS        75  93  76  90 /  60  50  40  60
GAINESVILLE     76  92  74  90 /  30  30  30  60
MACON           73  93  75  93 /  50  50  30  60
ROME            72  93  74  90 /  60  30  30  70
PEACHTREE CITY  73  93  73  90 /  40  50  30  60
VIDALIA         74  94  75  93 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
826 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-260030-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
826 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. RESULTANT
HEAT INDICES IN THIS PERIOD MAY REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN PORTIONS OF
EAST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AN ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORY MAY VERY
WELL BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALSO SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD. SOME STORMS
REACHING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH
DAY. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALSO ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOWER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

GAZ041-250015-
HARALSON GA-
741 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN HARALSON COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 741 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BUCHANAN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS HARALSON COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM
EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
BUCHANAN...BREMEN...TALLAPOOSA AND WACO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH IN A SHORT TIME IS POSSIBLE.
DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3390 8519 3377 8505 3372 8505 3372 8506
      3371 8507 3369 8512 3369 8513 3370 8513
      3370 8514 3365 8529 3365 8534 3379 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 046DEG 8KT 3376 8521

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
749 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JASPER                  34.47N  84.43W
06/24/2015                   PICKENS            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER RECEIVED A REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE ON
            KERRY DRIVE JUST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN
            JASPER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500434

KOVACIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
751 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AMICALOLA FALLS STATE P 34.57N  84.24W
06/24/2015                   DAWSON             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER RECEIVED A REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE IN
            NORTH DAWSON COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500435

KOVACIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
800 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E GAINESVILLE         34.30N  83.74W
06/24/2015                   HALL               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS HALL COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500436

RWILLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
828 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

GAZ085-086-097-250115-
JOHNSON GA-LAURENS GA-EMANUEL GA-
828 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN
JOHNSON...LAURENS AND EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 827 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES
EAST OF WRIGHTSVILLE TO NEAR ADRIAN...AND MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM AS THEY MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF JOHNSON...LAURENS AND
EMANUEL COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
WRIGHTSVILLE...ADRIAN...KITE...LOVETT...SPANN...MEEKS...DONOVAN...
BREWTON...NORRISTOWN JUNCTION...NEW HOME...SCOTT AND NORRISTOWN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND ONE INCH IN A SHORT TIME IS POSSIBLE.
DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

LAT...LON 3249 8249 3250 8255 3251 8256 3251 8265
      3250 8265 3252 8282 3277 8277 3280 8269
      3278 8266 3280 8261 3275 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 096DEG 11KT 3268 8252 3252 8261