Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
724 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO TREK NORTHWARD. THE HI-
RES MODELS HAVE THE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN ALABAMA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO GA...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DO THINK A
WEAKENING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS REASONABLE...AS MOST OF WEST GA
SHOULD BE WORKED OVER BY THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.

HAVE MADE SOME POP AND TIMING TWEAKS FOR THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR-TERM...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FEEDING STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA.
BIGGEST THREATS REMAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING...GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS AND HAIL TO JUST BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
DEPICTING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
REGION AS WELL PROVIDING SOME LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...HOWEVER COVERAGE
SHOULD SHOW A MARKED DIURNAL BIAS.

20

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WET PATTERN THROUGH MID AND LATE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH DRIFTS BY THE WEEKEND... WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE
TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE AREA MORE ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE POP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. /39

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
ECMWF AND GFS SIMILAR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM...THEN
THEY DIFFER IN POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE CWA IN THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA THROUGH THE WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BOTH MODELS FILL
THE LOW HOWEVER THE ECMWF PUSHES THE UPPER TROUGH A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF WILL BRING LOWER POPS TO THE CWA
WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP HIGHER POPS. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z-03Z AT ATL. A FEW
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
INITIAL LINE. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LINGER A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE LIFTING TO 034-040KFT. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...SO KEPT THE PROB30 GROUP
FOR PEAK HEATING. WINDS SHOULD STAY ON THE EAST SIDE TONIGHT...BUT
A SWITCH TO THE SE IS POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  83  66  83 /  50  60  50  60
ATLANTA         68  83  67  81 /  60  60  60  50
BLAIRSVILLE     62  78  61  76 /  60  70  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    65  82  64  81 /  70  60  50  50
COLUMBUS        68  85  68  84 /  60  60  50  60
GAINESVILLE     66  81  65  79 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           67  87  66  85 /  50  60  60  60
ROME            64  81  63  81 /  70  60  50  50
PEACHTREE CITY  66  83  64  81 /  60  60  60  60
VIDALIA         68  88  69  85 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1139 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-011015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1139 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
DAMAGING WINDS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE TODAY... THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM AMERICUS... TO FORSYTH...TO
WASHINGTON... AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 2 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE
STORMS ON MONDAY... AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY... ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

GAZ052-053-066-067-010000-
HEARD GA-TROUP GA-COWETA GA-MERIWETHER GA-
718 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN HEARD...TROUP...COWETA AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 717 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
LUTHERSVILLE TO 6 MILES WEST OF HOGANSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS HEARD...TROUP...COWETA AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES THROUGH
800 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
NEWNAN...LAGRANGE...FRANKLIN...GREENVILLE...PEACHTREE CITY...
SENOIA...HOGANSVILLE...GRANTVILLE...WOODBURY...LUTHERSVILLE...
MORELAND...SHARPSBURG...TURIN...HARALSON...LONE OAK...GAY...EAST
NEWNAN...CORINTH...HARRISONVILLE AND ROCKY MOUNT.

LAT...LON 3337 8459 3333 8453 3330 8451 3318 8450
      3310 8453 3308 8451 3308 8453 3304 8454
      3298 8452 3297 8520 3333 8528
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 163DEG 12KT 3319 8466 3316 8503

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
734 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

GAZ054-056-058-068-070-010000-
SPALDING GA-PIKE GA-BUTTS GA-LAMAR GA-FAYETTE GA-
734 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN SPALDING...PIKE...BUTTS...LAMAR AND FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
EDT...

AT 734 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HARALSON TO NEAR WILLIAMSON TO NEAR BARNESVILLE...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS SPALDING...PIKE...BUTTS...LAMAR AND FAYETTE COUNTIES
THROUGH 800 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
GRIFFIN...BARNESVILLE...ZEBULON...PEACHTREE CITY...SENOIA...MILNER...
BROOKS...WILLIAMSON...ORCHARD HILL...WOOLSEY...SUNNY SIDE...ALDORA...
EAST GRIFFIN...DIGBEY...CHAPPEL MILL...HOLLONVILLE...HIGHLAND
MILLS...VAUGHN...WALKER MILL AND GOGGINS.

LAT...LON 3339 8457 3340 8439 3339 8440 3335 8439
      3335 8425 3334 8425 3334 8415 3332 8415
      3330 8411 3330 8407 3332 8407 3333 8405
      3302 8410 3308 8434 3310 8453 3320 8449
      3326 8450 3332 8452 3335 8457
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 191DEG 16KT 3316 8450 3318 8431 3311 8412