Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR-TERM...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FEEDING STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA.
BIGGEST THREATS REMAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING...GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS AND HAIL TO JUST BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
DEPICTING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
REGION AS WELL PROVIDING SOME LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...HOWEVER COVERAGE
SHOULD SHOW A MARKED DIURNAL BIAS.

20

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WET PATTERN THROUGH MID AND LATE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH DRIFTS BY THE WEEKEND... WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE
TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE AREA MORE ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE POP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. /39

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
ECMWF AND GFS SIMILAR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM...THEN
THEY DIFFER IN POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE CWA IN THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA THROUGH THE WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BOTH MODELS FILL
THE LOW HOWEVER THE ECMWF PUSHES THE UPPER TROUGH A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF WILL BRING LOWER POPS TO THE CWA
WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP HIGHER POPS. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

17

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH
06Z. AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY 06Z...BECOMING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 09-14Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION CURRENTLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED OR LOWER COVERAGE BY 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST 6-10KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 5KT OR LESS AFTER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  83  66  83 /  50  60  50  60
ATLANTA         68  83  67  81 /  60  60  60  50
BLAIRSVILLE     62  78  61  76 /  60  70  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    65  82  64  81 /  70  60  50  50
COLUMBUS        68  85  68  84 /  60  60  50  60
GAINESVILLE     66  81  65  79 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           67  87  66  85 /  50  60  60  60
ROME            64  81  63  81 /  70  60  50  50
PEACHTREE CITY  66  83  64  81 /  60  60  60  60
VIDALIA         68  88  69  85 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1139 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-011015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1139 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
DAMAGING WINDS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE TODAY... THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM AMERICUS... TO FORSYTH...TO
WASHINGTON... AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 2 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE
STORMS ON MONDAY... AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY... ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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