Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIRMASS POISED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA HAVE SEEN AT LEAST A BIT
OF A RECOVERY FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY HAS MANAGED TO REACH MODERATE LEVELS.
SBCAPE 1000-1500J/KG WITH MUCAPE 1000-2000J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA IS MORE THAN AMPLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK BUT NOT ALTOGETHER LACKING...AND I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD TORNADO THREAT. INSTABILITY EBBS SOMEWHAT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AND ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. FRONT WASHES OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
RELATIVE DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.

20

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THE LONG
TERM. ECMWF LIFTS THE MOISTURE BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. HAVE COMPROMISED IN THE MIDDLE WITH
PUSHING SOME PRECIP BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA. BY MONDAY THOUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS TX
AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE SE BECOMES SW...WITH PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE BEING PUMPED INTO THE CWA. THERE ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES IN
THE FLOW THAT MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THIS IS ONE OF
THE TIMES THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. DISCREPANCIES RETURN
MORE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE GFS MUCH QUICKER TO CLEAR OUT
THE LATE WEEK FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF WITH LEAVING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

WIDE MIXTURE OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. I EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH
AROUND 02-06Z ACROSS THE NORTH AND THROUGH 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 12-14Z SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 04Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST
AREA PAST 12Z. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 6-12KTS...BECOMING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BY 00Z. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS MOST AREAS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  75  53  76 /  30   5   5   5
ATLANTA         54  75  55  75 /  30   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     46  71  46  70 /  10   5   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  75  50  75 /  10   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        60  79  58  78 /  60  10   5  30
GAINESVILLE     53  73  53  73 /  20   5   5   5
MACON           61  78  56  78 /  70  10   5  20
ROME            49  74  49  76 /   5   5   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  54  76  53  75 /  40   5   5  10
VIDALIA         66  77  58  78 /  60  50   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1223 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111630-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1223 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LAGRANGE TO ATHENS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THIS CHANCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ONLINE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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