Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING NORTHWEST GA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
 HIRES MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING THE
FRONT/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER BETWEEN 6-8AM...
AND PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT STALLING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH GEORGIA.  FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP SMALL CHANCE POPS
IN OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE LACKING AS THE FRONT/STORMS MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST GA THIS MORNING.  SPC HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OUT
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MLCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRANKLIN TO LOGANVILLE
TO DANIELSVILLE LINE...WHERE THE BEST THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED
SEVERE IS POSSIBLE.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL START OFF ON THE WARM SIDE...ATL/AHN
AND MCN CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BREAK RECORD WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES /SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE/.  COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
NORTH TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL GA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN LINE.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LONG TERM.
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWA. AFTER TUESDAY MODELS BECOME LESS AGREEABLE WITH TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES. HAVE THEREFORE BROADBRUSHED POPS AFTER TUESDAY.

17

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-10
              MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      89 2001     47 2003     65 1999     30 1960
                                                    1916
   KATL      89 1995     43 1918     66 1999     32 1938
                                                    1892
   KCSG      88 2001     48 2003     71 1999     35 1974
                1995        1989
                1965
   KMCN      90 2001     48 1928     68 1999     31 1916
                1908                    1922

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS FRONT AND CONVECTION MOVE
THROUGH. SHRA WILL BE OVER ATL BY 16Z...AHN BY 17Z AND CSG/MCN BY
18Z. BEST TIMING FOR TSRA 18-21Z NORTH...19-23Z SOUTH. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST...GENERALLY 10KTS...VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  56  77  52 /  70  30  10   5
ATLANTA         77  54  76  58 /  80  20  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     71  46  72  48 /  90  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    76  50  75  51 /  90  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        82  62  79  60 /  70  60  10   5
GAINESVILLE     77  53  75  54 /  90  20  10   5
MACON           84  61  79  56 /  60  60  10   5
ROME            76  49  75  48 / 100  20  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  78  54  77  52 /  70  30  10   5
VIDALIA         87  66  79  61 /  50  60  40   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1210 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

GAZ066-101645-
TROUP GA-
1210 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TROUP COUNTY UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

AT 1209 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEST POINT...OR NEAR LANETT...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM... AND SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH AND CENTRAL TROUP
COUNTY THROUGH 1245 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
LAGRANGE...WEST POINT...MOUNTVILLE...BAUGHS CROSSROADS...LOUISE...
CANNONVILLE...BIG SPRINGS...SMITHS CROSSROAD...LONG CANE AND JONES
CROSSROADS.

LAT...LON 3316 8486 3287 8486 3287 8518 3296 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 1609Z 248DEG 36KT 3291 8511