Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SET UP FROM CARROLLTON TO NEAR MACON. THIS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND THEN
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME WILL CONFINE TSRA TO MCN. ATL/AHN AREA AND CSG SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE TSRA ALTHOUGH CSG AND ATL COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM
TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU AHN WEDNESDAY AROUND NOON...REACHING ATL/PDK
BY LATE AFTERNOON SWITCHING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP FROM CSG-MCN LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING
HIGH ON ALL REMAINING ELEMENTS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  79  53  72 /  20  10  20  50
ATLANTA         55  77  57  72 /  60  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     48  73  49  62 /  20  10  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    51  78  56  73 /  50  20  30  60
COLUMBUS        57  80  57  80 /  60  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     53  76  53  67 /  30  10  30  50
MACON           56  81  54  77 /  60  20  20  40
ROME            52  78  54  74 /  60  20  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  53  79  53  75 /  70  20  30  40
VIDALIA         59  80  58  79 /  60  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...GORDON...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1119 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-011530-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1119 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

..ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS... LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING AFTERNOON HEATING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM... AND GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
SUMMERVILLE TO STONE MOUNTAIN TO SWAINSBORO LINE... WHICH INCLUDES
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
843 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             SENOIA                  33.30N  84.55W
03/31/2015  E1.25 INCH       COWETA             GA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL IN SENOIA. RELAYED TO
            NWS FFC FROM NWS GSP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500178

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
845 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GAZ066-067-010115-
TROUP GA-MERIWETHER GA-
845 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS
IN TROUP AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 845 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HOGANSVILLE...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LAGRANGE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZE SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS TROUP AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GREENVILLE...HOGANSVILLE...LONE OAK...GAY...SAINT MARKS...WOOSTER...
HARRISONVILLE...ALVATON...IMLAC AND ROCKY MOUNT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3319 8499 3319 8452 3299 8454 3311 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 272DEG 35KT 3316 8494

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
859 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GAZ083-094>096-107-010130-
TWIGGS GA-BLECKLEY GA-PEACH GA-HOUSTON GA-PULASKI GA-
859 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TWIGGS...BLECKLEY...PEACH...HOUSTON AND PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 930
PM EDT...

AT 858 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TWO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ONE NEAR BYRON AND ANOTHER PERRY...BOTH
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZE SIZED HAIL...
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY
MOVES ACROSS TWIGGS...BLECKLEY...PEACH...HOUSTON AND PULASKI
COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PERRY...
COCHRAN...WARNER ROBINS...CENTERVILLE...BYRON...ROBINS AFB...
PAULK...MAGNOLIA...BONAIRE...OCMULGEE PUBLIC FISHING AREA...ROYAL...
TARVERSVILLE...MOBLEY CROSSING...LAKEWOOD...HOUSTON LAKE...
BULLARD... CLINCHFIELD...KATHLEEN...BAILEYS PARK AND COLEY STATION.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3244 8374 3269 8376 3261 8340 3230 8331
      3229 8334 3228 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 291DEG 34KT 3265 8372 3246 8367

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
908 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW BOLINGBROKE        32.96N  83.82W
03/31/2015                   MONROE             GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ON PEA RIDGE ROAD NEAR I-475

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500179

RWILLIS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
930 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GAZ097-111-112-010200-
WHEELER GA-MONTGOMERY GA-LAURENS GA-
930 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WHEELER...MONTGOMERY AND LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

AT 929 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMO...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED SIZED HAIL...
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS WHEELER...MONTGOMERY AND LAURENS COUNTIES THROUGH 1000
PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ALAMO...MOUNT VERNON...GLENWOOD...CADWELL...AILEY...HIGGSTON...
JORDAN...CEDAR GROVE AND LANDSBURG.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3213 8293 3218 8287 3220 8289 3216 8297
      3217 8301 3235 8310 3225 8245 3195 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 285DEG 57KT 3224 8289