River Flood Warning 226, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
939 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...

AREA OF DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR
THAT AREA. ALSO DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTH...HOWEVER RIVERS ARE STILL
RISING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEAR FUTURE. OTHERWISE I MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WEATHER/SKY GRIDS...BUT NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST TRENDS.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH GA. GRADUAL NORTHWARD
DRIFT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF DEEPENING WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE MORE RAIN TODAY WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR THE EAST
CENTRAL CORNER. A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
TODAY AS WE REMAIN IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MODERATE
SHEAR. BY SATURDAY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN AND OH VALLEY AREAS. HAVE
INCLUDED ONLY CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF FOR
SATURDAY. CONTINUED WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

41

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING THE THE WESTERN GULF FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...CONTINUING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL GA BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING MAINLY NORTH.
HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE STALLED
FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

41

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 12-25

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      77 1982     22 1983     61 1982      3 1983
                1955
   KATL      72 1987     17 1983     59 1982      0 1983
                1889
   KMCN      78 1982     25 1983     61 1982      7 1983
                                        1932
   KCSG      76 1982     24 1983     60 1982      8 1983
                                        1964

RECORDS FOR 12-26

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      74 1964     30 1980     61 1987      9 1983
                1928
   KATL      72 1987     26 1935     61 1987      5 1983
   KMCN      77 1987     33 1902     61 1987      9 1983
                1982                    1964
   KCSG      80 1987     33 1983     64 1987     10 1983

RECORDS FOR 12-27

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      73 1971     33 1917     56 1982     11 1935
   KATL      71 1982     27 1892     58 1982     12 1925
                1889
   KMCN      78 1987     35 1902     61 1987     17 1902
   KCSG      75 2008     43 1948     61 1987     23 1985
                1982

RECORDS FOR 12-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1928     32 1950     59 1982      8 1925
   KATL      74 1984     15 1894     58 1954      5 1925
                1971
   KMCN      76 2008     31 1925     65 1942     11 1925
                2007
   KCSG      80 1984     36 1950     59 2008     23 2010
                                        1954        1977

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SWATH OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GA TODAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS IN ALL THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE AFTERNOON ALL
AREAS. CEILINGS GENERALLY MVFR EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER SOME
BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WINDS
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15KT BUT CAN EXPECT SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON/

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  62  74  61 /  60  20  20  20
ATLANTA         75  64  74  63 /  70  30  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     71  62  70  60 /  80  50  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    74  63  74  63 /  80  50  20  30
COLUMBUS        78  64  78  63 /  40  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     72  63  71  61 /  70  40  20  20
MACON           78  62  78  61 /  30  10  10  10
ROME            74  63  74  62 /  80  60  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  62  75  60 /  70  30  20  20
VIDALIA         81  64  80  63 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...
GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...
HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BLECKLEY...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...JOHNSON...LAURENS...
MONTGOMERY...PULASKI...SUMTER...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
WHEELER...WILCOX.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
556 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
556 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

A BAND OF RAIN AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED MAINLY NORTH OF
LAGRANGE TO MONTICELLO SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING POTENTIAL TO THE AREA TODAY. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY BECOMING MORE
CONCENTRATED IN NORTH GEORGIA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ONGOING FLOODING OF RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL CONTINUE FROM
RUNOFF AND PREVIOUSLY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...OR
BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL RIVERS AND
STREAMS COULD REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
839 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

GAZ005-006-251400-
MURRAY GA-FANNIN GA-
839 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MURRAY AND
NORTHWESTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM EST...

AT 839 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ETON...OR 10 MILES
NORTH OF CHATSWORTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF
           CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ETON...CRANDALL...JONES MILL...CISCO...TENNGA...EPWORTH...CONASAUGA
LAKE...GREGORY...COHUTTA WILDERNESS...SUMAC AND COPPERHILL.

LAT...LON 3499 8429 3479 8475 3479 8476 3494 8484
      3497 8481 3499 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 1339Z 239DEG 49KT 3492 8473

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
920 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

GAZ001-251515-
DADE GA-
920 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DADE COUNTY UNTIL 1015 AM EST...

AT 913 AM EST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IF HOLDS TOGETHER... WILL PUSH INTO DADE
COUNTY BETWEEN 1030 AM AND 11 AM THIS MORNING.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
	   		LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALL POSSIBLE BY 11
			AM ACROSS PARTS OF DADE COUNTY.

  IMPACT...EXPECT MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
		   LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND
		   POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
		   AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
		   THE ROAD... REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
TRENTON...RISING FAWN...CLOUDLAND CANYON STATE PARK...NEW ENGLAND...
MORGANVILLE...COLE CITY...WILDWOOD...HOOKER AND STEPHENSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3498 8537 3483 8545 3476 8545 3475 8546
      3473 8546 3470 8549 3467 8549 3463 8553
      3498 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 1413Z 270DEG 25KT 3500 8632 3456 8679

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