Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM LEAKEY SOUTH TO
BRACKETTVILLE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION THAT
CAN STILL BE DETECTED OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE. STORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY ON
LEFT OVER OUTFLOWS FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT THIS HOUR MAKING
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THE NAM AND
MESOSCALE MODELS (NMM/ARW/HRRR) SHOW THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND STALLING OUT AGAIN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT...SO THE FRONTS PROGRESS SOUTH WILL
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHO GETS RAIN AND HOW MUCH. DECENT RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STICKS AROUND
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DAYTIME HEATING...LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL ALL ACT AS LIFTING MECHANISMS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT.

STILL THINKING THAT SOME POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SEEN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OUT OF THE STORMS THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE
STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER
THE EAST DEAMPLIFIES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...BUT OUR WEATHER HERE
IN CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE CONTROLLED BY A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WHAT HAPPENS WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY TO AREAS OUT OF I-10 AND EAST OF I-35.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER FLORIDA LONGER AND NOW
DO NOT BUILD IT OVER OUR AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THIS REASON
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NOW GO THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN PLACES
WHERE IT IS NOT RAINING DURING THE WEEK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  89  72  91  72 /  50  30  10  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  89  71  91  71 /  50  30  20  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  89  72  90  72 /  40  40  20  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  89  70  90  70 /  40  20  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  91  73  94  74 /  40  40  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  89  71  91  71 /  40  20  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  89  71  91  72 /  50  40  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  89  72  90  72 /  50  40  20  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  89  73  90  73 /  50  40  20  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  89  73  91  73 /  40  40  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  90  73  91  73 /  40  40  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-280800-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT AS
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

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