Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
656 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF KAUS...WHILE AN ISOLATED CELL WILL MOVE
NORTH OF KSAT. VCTS WAS PLACED IN THE KAUS TAF...WHILE NO MENTION
WAS MADE FOR KSAT SINCE THAT STORM SHOULD STAY A BIT FURTHER AWAY.
AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT BOTH SITES TO REMAIN FREE OF -SHRA/-TSRA...
BUT STORM MERGERS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY REQUIRE UPDATES.

THE STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF/MOVE EAST AFTER 03Z...FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CIGS...THEN EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 08-15Z.
KDRT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A TROUGH WILL
SHIFT WINDS FROM S-SE TO SW AT 15Z SUNDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE A FURTHER SHIFT TO N AFTER 18Z AT KDRT AND AROUND 00Z
MONDAY AT THE I-35 SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE EASTWARD
EXTENSION OF WW# 72. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW OVER COLORADO WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE A DRYLINE WAS
STRETCHED FROM AROUND CHILDRESS TO SAN ANGELO TO THE BIG BEND. THE
PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS OUR CWA IS ILL DEFINED AND WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DRT SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK
CAP AT ABOUT 850MB. EXPECTING STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD. MODELS FORECAST CAPE 1000-2000
J/KG WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35 WITH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. SPC HAS US IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SCENARIO FOR THIS EVENING WILL
BE A LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS I-35 TOWARD I-10. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOWER THREAT
FOR TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN MOVE
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. SUNDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND END
RAIN CHANCES. THIS ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB AND SUNDAY
WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY. THEN CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
GRADUAL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEW WEEK. THEN A TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED BY THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FRIDAY AND MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  88  56  74  55 /  40  -   -    0  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  87  55  73  53 /  40  -   -    0  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     61  87  56  74  54 /  30   0  10  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  86  52  73  53 /  40   0   0   0  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  89  58  77  60 /  20   0  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  86  53  73  52 /  40  -   -    0  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  88  57  75  55 /  20   0  -   -   30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  86  56  74  54 /  40   0  10  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  86  57  74  57 /  40  10  10  -   20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  88  58  74  57 /  30   0  -   -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  88  59  74  57 /  20   0  10  -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
234 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-191100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
234 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE
ISOLATED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
723 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             1 SE LLANO              30.74N  98.66W
04/18/2015  M0.25 INCH       LLANO              TX   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500193

CVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
732 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TXZ171-172-190115-
BURNET TX-LLANO TX-
732 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 732 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WATSON TO NEAR INKS
LAKE STATE PARK TO ENCHANTED ROCK STATION...AND MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINGSLAND...MARBLE FALLS...BURNET...BERTRAM...BUCHANAN DAM...
GAINESVILLE...GRANITE SHOALS...HORSESHOE BAY...MEADOWLAKES...HIGHLAND
HAVEN...OXFORD...OATMEAL...SHADY GROVE...INKS LAKE STATE PARK...
SUNNYLANE...JOPPA...WATSON...LAKE VICTOR...COTTONWOOD SHORES AND
SUNRISE BEACH VILLAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3101 9794 3085 9795 3058 9819 3051 9847
      3052 9895 3073 9857 3101 9828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 294DEG 50KT 3096 9807 3070 9841 3051 9888

EMP