River Flood Warning 22, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

749 
WGUS84 KEWX 240245
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
945 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Nueces River At Laguna AFFECTING Uvalde County
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
  Frio River At Concan AFFECTING Uvalde County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC463-242024-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-150524T2024Z/
/UVAT2.1.ER.150524T0528Z.150524T0600Z.150524T0824Z.NO/
945 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

 The flood warning continues for the Nueces River At Laguna.
* At  9:30 PM Saturday the stage was 7.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will rise above flood stage by very early Sunday
  morning and continue to rise to near 10.4 feet by early Sunday morning.
  The river level will fall below flood stage on Sunday.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding reaches low water crossings on 
  Highway 55 above Barksdale on Hackberry Creek. The Nueces River crossing at 
  Barksdale is very dangerous. East of Camp Wood Farm to Market 337 crosses Camp
  Wood Creek in three places. Vehicular related drownings have occurred at all 
  these sites..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Laguna              7   10    7.8   Sat 09 PM   9.4   5.6   4.3   3.8   3.5


&&

LAT...LON 2944 10003 2945 9995 2928 9990 2914 9985
      2913 9994 2926 9998            

$$

TXC463-242045-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-150524T2212Z/
/CNCT2.2.ER.150524T0021Z.150524T0600Z.150524T1012Z.NO/
945 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The flood warning continues for the Frio River At Concan.
* At  9:30 PM Saturday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will continue rising to near 14.5 feet by very
  early Sunday morning. The river level will fall below flood stage on Sunday.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Major flooding increases very quickly to several feet 
  deep over the Frio River banks of recreation camps near Rio Frio to near 
  Concan. Sleeping campers, autos and recreational vehicles can be washed 
  downstream. This is a life threatening level..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Concan              7   11   11.6   Sat 09 PM   9.5   5.1   4.1   4.7   4.7


&&

LAT...LON 2951 9975 2951 9967 2943 9962 2929 9962
      2923 9971 2942 9970             

$$

579 
WGUS84 KEWX 240854
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
354 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Nueces River At Laguna AFFECTING Uvalde County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC463-250254-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-150525T0450Z/
/UVAT2.1.ER.150524T0723Z.150524T1200Z.150524T1650Z.NO/
354 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

 The flood warning continues for the Nueces River At Laguna.
* At  3:30 AM Sunday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will continue rising to near 12.1 feet by this morning. 
  The river level will fall below flood stage late Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding reaches low water crossings on 
  Highway 55 above Barksdale on Hackberry Creek. The Nueces River crossing at 
  Barksdale is very dangerous. East of Camp Wood Farm to Market 337 crosses Camp
  Wood Creek in three places. Vehicular related drownings have occurred at all 
  these sites..

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM 
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
  Laguna             7   10   11.7   Sun 03 AM  12.1   6.7   4.9   4.2   3.8


&&

LAT...LON 2944 10003 2945 9995 2928 9990 2914 9985
      2913 9994 2926 9998            

$$

577 
WGUS84 KEWX 241358
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Nueces River At Laguna AFFECTING Uvalde County
  
  Frio River Below Dry Frio AFFECTING Uvalde County
  
  Sabinal At Sabinal AFFECTING Uvalde County
  
  Seco Creek At Seco Creek At Rowe Ranch Near D'hanis AFFECTING Medina County
  
  Frio River Near Derby AFFECTING Frio County
  
  Hondo Creek At King Waterhole/hondo Crk @ Hwy 173 AFFECTING Medina County
  
  Nueces River Near Asherton AFFECTING Dimmit County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC463-250203-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-150525T0203Z/
/UVAT2.1.ER.150524T0723Z.150524T0830Z.150524T1403Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Nueces River At Laguna.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 10.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late this 
  morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding reaches low water crossings on 
  Highway 55 above Barksdale on Hackberry Creek. The Nueces River crossing at 
  Barksdale is very dangerous. East of Camp Wood Farm to Market 337 crosses Camp
  Wood Creek in three places. Vehicular related drownings have occurred at all 
  these sites..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Laguna              7   10   10.4   Sun 8 AM   4.3   4.0   3.8   3.6   3.4


&&

LAT...LON 2944 10003 2945 9995 2928 9990 2914 9985
      2913 9994 2926 9998            

$$

TXC463-250758-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-150525T1030Z/
/UDET2.1.ER.150524T1226Z.000000T0000Z.150524T2230Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Frio River Below Dry Frio.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 13.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate flooding reaches crop and pasture land near 
  the river. Secondary and primary roads and low bridges flood..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Dry Frio           10   12   13.9   Sun 8 AM   7.1   4.8   4.3   4.2   4.1


&&

LAT...LON 2923 9971 2929 9962 2898 9917 2876 9912
      2873 9920 2893 9924             

$$

TXC463-250758-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-150525T1323Z/
/SABT2.2.ER.150524T0441Z.150524T0645Z.150525T0123Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Sabinal At Sabinal.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 18.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  evening.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Lowland flooding damages crops and floods pastureland 
  cutting off and potentially drowning livestock in low areas of the flood 
  plain. Secondary roads and low bridges flood severely as the flood wave passes
  downstream..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Sabinal            10   12   18.3   Sun 8 AM   9.1   8.2   8.0   7.8   7.6


&&

LAT...LON 2962 9956 2962 9948 2914 9941 2901 9921
      2894 9925 2910 9949             

$$

TXC325-250504-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-150525T0504Z/
/SCRT2.2.ER.150524T0423Z.150524T0530Z.150524T1704Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Seco Creek At Seco Creek At Rowe Ranch Near D'hanis.
* At  8:15 AM Sunday the stage was 17.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding impacts secondary roads and 
  low bridges making them dangerous to auto traffic. Livestock should be moved 
  from low areas of the flood plain. Lowest homes in D'Hanis are threatened..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Seco Creek At Ro   13   15   17.1   Sun 8 AM   9.1   8.3   7.7   8.0   8.0


&&

LAT...LON 2939 9931 2939 9923 2920 9921 2902 9909
      2902 9918 2920 9929             

$$

TXC325-250600-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-150525T0600Z/
/KWHT2.2.ER.150524T0427Z.150524T0530Z.150524T1800Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Hondo Creek At King Waterhole/hondo Crk @ Hwy 173.
* At  8:00 AM Sunday the stage was 9.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise to near flood stage this afternoon.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding inundates Farm to Market 462 at
  several low crossings over Hondo Creek..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 King Waterhole/h   10   12    9.9   Sun 8 AM   6.6   5.8   5.1   5.5   5.3


&&

LAT...LON 2938 9915 2938 9905 2913 9902 2902 9909
      2902 9918 2913 9910             

$$

TXC163-250758-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0033.150525T1510Z-150528T0900Z/
/DBYT2.2.ER.150525T1510Z.150526T1200Z.150527T2100Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Frio River Near Derby.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 1.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to 
  rise to near 10.9 feet by Tuesday morning. The riverwill fall below flood 
  stage by Wednesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Lowland flooding below Concan to Choke Canyon 
  Reservoir floods oil well pump jacks, irrigation pumps and any equipment in 
  the lower flood plain near and above Derby..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Derby               6    6    1.1   Sun 8 AM   4.2  10.9   8.2   4.5   2.9


&&

LAT...LON 2873 9920 2876 9912 2864 9902 2864 9910


$$

TXC127-250757-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASRT2.3.ER.150517T2256Z.150520T0700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Nueces River Near Asherton.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 26.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue rising to near 27.2 feet by tomorrow 
  morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet...Major widespread lowland flooding cuts off and 
  potentially drowns livestock above Uvalde to below Tilden. Most secondary 
  roads and low bridges near the river flood. Flow is within a foot of the 
  bottom of the Farm to Market 190 bridge and the approaches are flooded..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Asherton           18   20   26.4   Sun 8 AM  27.2  26.6  26.2  24.8  22.5


&&

LAT...LON 2848 9975 2853 9967 2847 9939 2839 9939


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL OF THE HI RES
MODELS ARE REALLY DEVELOPING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME PERIOD AND MOVING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD TO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR BY 02Z-04Z AND THEN EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. HAVE USED THE SLIGHTLY FASTER TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. FOR THIS AFTERNOON 18Z-23Z SHOULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL SEE THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BY 20Z-22Z ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN ADVANCING
EASTWARD THROUGH 09Z. LINGERING SHRA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY 12Z-13Z.
CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR WITH CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 17Z. S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z THEN E/SE 5-10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO UP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS BY 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED
HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY UP A DEGREE GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE AND TRENDED ALL
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
ALL OF THE MORNING MESOSCALE/HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
EARLIER FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
MOST HAVE IT DEVELOPING OVER THE DEL RIO AREA AROUND 5 PM AND
GETTING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 9 AND MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAINS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE STILL LOOKING LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
WILL LOOK IN DEPTH INTO THAT IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND
DISCUSSION. FOR THE REST OF TODAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE LINE.

WILL CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT ANYONE ON LOCAL RIVERS AND LAKES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NEED TO PAY VERY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND ANY WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED. HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO
SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING
OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS IMPACTING AUS AT THE TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE PULLING NORTH
OF THE SAT/SSF VCNTYS FOR A FEW HOURS AND COULD LIFT NORTH OF THE
AUS AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WELL. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND ANOTHER RIPPLE OF ENERGY NEAR DRT COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
I-35 SITES AGAIN BY 15Z. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED SO TIMING
IS IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TODAY. CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THE
PREVAILING THUNDER PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TIME WINDOW MAY BE ABLE
TO COMPRESS ONCE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED STORM COMPLEX BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. AFTER THE COMPLEX IS SPECULATED TO PASS EAST OF I-35 TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WILL CONTINUE PREVAILING SHOWERS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC IN CASE THE SYSTEM SLOWS
DOWN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS GETTING AN EARLY START WITH
CONVECTION INCREASING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WHICH IS STILL
OVER UTAH/ARIZONA PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE GENERALLY AT
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR AND WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED ONE FLOOD ADVISORY.
THE HRRR IS ZEROING IN ON THIS AREA WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY
INCREASING AND IS COMING UP WITH SOME HIGH TOTALS THIS MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THIS EARLY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL GO AHEAD
AND START THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW. THIS WILL BE A BIT TOO EARLY
FOR THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT WANT TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A
SEGMENTED PRODUCT. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
WESTERN CWA AS THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN LOOKS LIKELY
FOR TODAY WITH 60/70 POPS ACROSS THE CWA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME TRAINING OF CELLS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS LIFT AND STRETCH ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WITH MOST MODELS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME...WITH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE BEING THE EARLIEST. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MARCH
THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A QUICK 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS. OVERNIGHT RAIN ON TOP OF ANY
RAINFALL THAT OCCURS TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SOAK INTO THE
GROUND...AS SOILS REMAIN QUITE SATURATED FROM A VERY WET SPRING.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL RUNOFF INTO CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
FLOODING IS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY.

ALTHOUGH FLOODING RAINS IS OF THE HIGHEST CONCERN ON THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. SEVERE
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT AM CONCERNED WITH
THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS AND THE EFFECT THAT COULD HAVE BY
CLUTTERING UP THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE MAIN LINE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
SEVERE WINDS. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SOME
TURNING IN THE PROFILE WILL POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH
ANY STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL AS THE MAIN LINE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE NEARING THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA SOMETIME AROUND 18Z. THE
THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
ABOVE 3000 J/KG WHICH IS SOMEWHAT INITIALLY CONCERNING.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT AMOUNTS OF DRYING ALOFT
BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACTIVITY. ALSO...THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE PRETTY WORKED OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING ACTIVITY. THE ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE MOST RECOVERY TIME WILL BE AND SOME HIGH-RES
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THIS GENERAL AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1-4
INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE MUST
CONTINUE TO STRESS TO ANYONE ON LOCAL RIVERS AND LAKES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND ANY
WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED. HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE TO SEEK SHELTER
AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD UNFORTUNATELY BE BRIEF. CURRENTLY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...ANOTHER IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CAN
BE SEEN NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL AND BRINGS IT INTO
TEXAS FOR MONDAY /MEMORIAL DAY/. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE QPF AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS THE HIGHEST OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH ANOTHER 2
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
RAIN TOTALS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE GFS IS ADVERTISING. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT UP TO ANOTHER
2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ON MONDAY....THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT A LATER TIME. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES WILL
SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DUE SHOW THE THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY AND IF ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE AVAILABLE TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...ANYONE OUTDOORS ON THE HOLIDAY NEED TO MAKE SURE TO HAVE A
PLAN AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
FOR MID-WEEK. POPS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE NEARS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  68  81  71  82 /  60  90  60  40  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  68  81  70  82 /  60  90  70  40  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  68  82  71  82 /  60  90  60  40  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            79  66  80  69  81 /  60  90  60  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  68  89  70  87 /  80  70  30  20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  68  80  70  82 /  60  90  60  40  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  66  84  70  82 /  70  90  50  30  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  68  80  70  82 /  60  90  60  40  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  69  80  71  82 /  40  80  80  50  70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       82  68  82  72  83 /  60  90  60  30  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  69  83  72  83 /  60  90  60  30  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
453 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-241000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
453 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TODAY. THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AS A LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. WITH NEARLY SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A HIGH
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1
TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE NEW RISES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON RIVERS...
CONDITIONS ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE STORM COMPLEX WILL BE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH 7 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS SUNDAY WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
EVENING. THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO SUNDAY...MEANS ALL
OF THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE A POTENTIAL
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES. SOME RIVERS REMAIN SWOLLEN FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

NEW EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. THE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR THE FIVE DAY PERIOD ENDING TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVING UP
TO 6 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
142 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ209-231930-
FAYETTE TX-
142 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

AT 141 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MULDOON...OR 9 MILES WEST OF LA GRANGE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LA GRANGE...MULDOON...WEST POINT...FREYBURG...O QUINN...COLONY...
SWISS ALP...PLUM...FLOY...RABBS PRAIRIE...WINCHESTER AND WICCHESTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2972 9691 2977 9724 3001 9702 2997 9689
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 172DEG 40KT 2988 9704

MSL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
206 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ206-207-231945-
COMAL TX-GUADALUPE TX-
206 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GUADALUPE AND
SOUTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 206 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MARION...OR 8 MILES WEST OF SEGUIN...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...SCHERTZ...CANYON LAKE...MARION...SANTA
CLARA...NEW BERLIN...MCQUEENEY...ZUEHL...SOLMS...GRUENE...ZIPP...
FREIHEIT AND NOLTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2948 9797 2949 9815 2983 9830 2981 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 171DEG 33KT 2958 9811

MSL