Alert archive / Texas / River Flood Warnings in 2015

River Flood Warning 128, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

October 30, 2015Fayette County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this river flood warning at Oct 30, 2015, 9:07 PM CDT for Fayette County, Texas. It took effect at Oct 31, 2015, 5:27 PM CDT. It was in force for 64 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 30, 2015, 9:07 PM CDT (02:07 UTC)
In effect from: Oct 31, 2015, 5:27 PM CDT
Expired: Nov 3, 2015, 8:21 AM CST
In force: 64 hr
Issued by: NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Moderate

County Fayette County, TX

The radar

The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Colorado River (TX) above La Grange (LGRT2). The gauge peaked at 34.81 ft at Nov 2, 2015, 1:00 AM CST.

Action stage: 19 ft
Minor stage: 26 ft
Moderate stage: 32 ft
Major stage: 37 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 08160400, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

638
WGUS44 KEWX 310207
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
907 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued
a flood warning for the...

Colorado River

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary
precautions to protect life and property.

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary.

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks.

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember
to turn around and do not drown.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

TXC021-149-312007-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0127.151031T1746Z-151102T1522Z/
/SMIT2.2.ER.151031T1746Z.151101T1200Z.151102T0322Z.NO/
907 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a

* Flood Warning for the Colorado River Near Smithville.
* from Saturday afternoon to Monday morning...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:10 PM Friday the stage was 2.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will rise to crest around 24.4 feet by Sunday morning.
The river level will fall below flood stage by late Sunday.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Flow threatens lowest residences five miles upstream
at Hidden Valley Estates and three miles upstream at Doty River Estates. Roads
and bridges near the river flood and are dangerous to motorists..

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Smithville 10 20 2.1 Fri 08 PM 24.4 13.4 7.1 4.3

LAT...LON 2999 9718 3006 9717 2996 9686 2989 9692

TXC149-312007-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0128.151031T2227Z-151103T0115Z/
/LGRT2.2.ER.151031T2227Z.151101T1800Z.151102T1315Z.NO/
907 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a

* Flood Warning for the Colorado River Above La Grange.
* from Saturday afternoon to Monday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:25 PM Friday the stage was 4.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level is expected to rise to crest around 32.9 feet by Sunday early
afternoon. The river level is expected to fall below flood stage by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding reaches the flood plain near
La Grange. Homes in the Fritsch Auf Subdivision on the south bank of the
Colorado River may be threatened if heavy runoff down Buckners Creek adds to
the Colorado River flow at this level..

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
La Grange 19 26 4.8 Fri 08 PM 32.4 26.2 13.5 8.8

LAT...LON 2989 9692 2996 9686 2982 9669 2976 9675

9 follow-up statements

316 
WGUS84 KEWX 310911
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
411 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Barton Creek At Barton Ck Loop 360 Affecting Travis County
  Onion Creek At Hwy 183 Affecting Travis County
  Colorado River Near Smithville Affecting Bastrop and Fayette Counties
  Colorado River Above La Grange Affecting Fayette County
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
  Colorado River At Bastrop Affecting Bastrop County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC453-010311-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0120.000000T0000Z-151101T0451Z/
/ABTT2.3.ER.151030T1833Z.151030T2235Z.151031T1651Z.NO/
411 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Barton Creek At Barton Ck Loop 360.
* At  3:00 AM Saturday the stage was 6.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...A new rise above flood stage is forecast early this morning with a 
  crest near 11.4 feet by 7 am. The river will fall below flood stage by noon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding reaches lowest secondary roads 
  and low bridges. Significant rise downstream in Barton Springs Pool..

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM 
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
  Barton Ck Loop     8    8    6.7   Sat 03 AM  11.4   2.7   1.6   1.3   1.2


&&

LAT...LON 3028 9788 3031 9785 3027 9781 3028 9778
      3025 9774 3022 9781             

$$

TXC453-312222-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151031T2222Z/
/ATIT2.3.ER.151030T1514Z.151030T1941Z.151031T1022Z.NR/
411 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Onion Creek At Hwy 183.
* At  3:20 AM Saturday the stage was 18.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by daybreak.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding threatens secondary roads, but 
  neighborhoods along Onion Creek are not affected. Upstream, the 12000 block of
  Old San Antonio Road is likely flooded and impassable..

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM 
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
  Hwy 183           15   17   18.6   Sat 03 AM  15.7   8.7   6.5   6.0   5.3


&&

LAT...LON 3012 9781 3018 9779 3023 9759 3019 9753


$$

TXC021-010311-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0122.000000T0000Z-151101T2206Z/
/BRTT2.3.ER.151031T0228Z.151031T1800Z.151101T1006Z.NO/
411 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Colorado River At Bastrop.
* At  3:45 AM Saturday the stage was 30.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 32.0 feet by this afternoon.
  The river will fall below flood stage Sunday morning. A crest around 32 feet 
  is very near the crest of 32.30 feet from 10/19/1998. 
* Impact...At 33.0 feet...Disastrous flooding severely damages the Doty River, 
  Hidden Valley, and Pecan Shores subdivisions above Smithville. Roads and 
  bridges near the river are very dangerous.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM 
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
  Bastrop           14   23   30.5   Sat 04 AM  31.8  21.8  11.0   6.8   5.3


&&

LAT...LON 3007 9737 3014 9731 3006 9717 2999 9718


$$

TXC021-149-010311-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0127.151031T1254Z-151102T0733Z/
/SMIT2.2.ER.151031T1254Z.151101T0000Z.151101T1933Z.NO/
411 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Colorado River Near Smithville.
* At  3:40 AM Saturday the stage was 17.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by this morning (around 8 am)and 
  continue to rise to near 25.6 feet by this evening around 7 pm. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by early Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Flow threatens lowest residences five miles upstream 
  at Hidden Valley Estates and three miles upstream at Doty River Estates. Roads
  and bridges near the river flood and are dangerous to motorists..

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM 
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
  Smithville        10   20   17.3   Sat 04 AM  19.4  23.3  10.0   5.7   3.3


&&

LAT...LON 2999 9718 3006 9717 2996 9686 2989 9692


$$

TXC149-010311-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0128.151031T1753Z-151102T1731Z/
/LGRT2.2.ER.151031T1753Z.151101T1200Z.151102T0531Z.NO/
411 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Colorado River Above La Grange.
* At  3:25 AM Saturday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by mid afternoon Saturday and 
  continue to rise to near 33.1 feet by Sunday morning around 7 am. The river will 
  fall below flood stage around 11 pm Sunday night.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding reaches the flood plain near
  La Grange. Homes in the Fritsch Auf Subdivision on the south bank of the 
  Colorado River may be threatened if heavy runoff down Buckners Creek adds to 
  the Colorado River flow at this level..

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM 
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
  La Grange         19   26    5.0   Sat 03 AM  15.5  33.1  20.1  10.8   7.7


&&

LAT...LON 2989 9692 2996 9686 2982 9669 2976 9675


$$

417 
WGUS84 KEWX 311433
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
933 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Barton Creek At Barton Ck Loop 360 Affecting Travis County
  Onion Creek At Hwy 183 Affecting Travis County

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Colorado River At Bastrop Affecting Bastrop County
  Colorado River Above La Grange Affecting Fayette County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC453-311503-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0120.000000T0000Z-151101T0451Z/
/ABTT2.3.ER.151030T1833Z.151030T2235Z.151031T0418Z.NO/
933 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Barton Creek At Barton Ck Loop 360.
* At  9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 4.9 feet by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Flow exceeds lowest sections of the banks..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Barton Ck Loop 3    8    8    6.8    Sat 9 AM   4.9   4.4   3.8   3.4   3.1


&&

LAT...LON 3028 9788 3031 9785 3027 9781 3028 9778
      3025 9774 3022 9781             

$$

TXC453-311503-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151031T2222Z/
/ATIT2.3.ER.151030T1514Z.151030T1941Z.151031T0909Z.NR/
933 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Onion Creek At Hwy 183.
* At  9:20 AM Saturday the stage was 15.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 9.3 feet by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Flow exceeds lowest sections of the banks. Low street 
  crossings and bridges are threatened..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Hwy 183            15   17   15.8    Sat 9 AM   9.3   6.5   5.8   5.1   4.7


&&

LAT...LON 3012 9781 3018 9779 3023 9759 3019 9753


$$

TXC021-010833-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0122.000000T0000Z-151102T0404Z/
/BRTT2.3.ER.151031T0228Z.151031T1800Z.151101T1604Z.NO/
933 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Colorado River At Bastrop.
* At  9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 34.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 36.3 feet by this afternoon.
  The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late morning.
* Impact...At 37.0 feet...Widespread disastrous flooding is to the roofs of the 
  lowest homes in the Doty River, Hidden Valley, and Pecan Shores subdivisions 
  above Smithville. Flow approaches the lowest homes and the golf course near 
  Bastrop.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Bastrop            14   23   34.7    Sat 9 AM  25.2  11.2   6.7   5.1   4.2


&&

LAT...LON 3007 9737 3014 9731 3006 9717 2999 9718


$$

TXC149-010833-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0128.151031T2123Z-151102T2358Z/
/LGRT2.2.ER.151031T2123Z.151101T1200Z.151102T1158Z.NO/
933 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Colorado River Above La Grange.
* At  9:25 AM Saturday the stage was 13.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and continue to rise 
  to near 35.7 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 36.0 feet...The lowest part of the road into the Fritsch Auf 
  Subdivision just south of the Colorado River south of downtown floods. The 
  Colorado River approaches lowest homes in the Fritsch Auf Subdivision and 
  additional flow down Buckners Creek will flood them..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 La Grange          19   26   13.5    Sat 9 AM  35.7  25.1  14.6  10.9   8.1


&&

LAT...LON 2989 9692 2996 9686 2982 9669 2976 9675


$$

420 
WGUS84 KEWX 312038
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
338 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Colorado River At Bastrop Affecting Bastrop County
  Colorado River Near Smithville Affecting Bastrop and Fayette Counties
  Colorado River Above La Grange Affecting Fayette County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC021-011438-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0122.000000T0000Z-151102T0521Z/
/BRTT2.3.ER.151031T0228Z.151031T2000Z.151101T1721Z.NO/
338 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

 The flood warning continues for the Colorado River At Bastrop.
* At  3:00 PM Saturday the stage was 36.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level was cresting Saturday afternoon and will begin falling
  by the evening hours. It is expected to fall below flood stage by late Sunday
  morning.
* Impact...At 37.0 feet...Widespread disastrous flooding is to the roofs of the 
  lowest homes in the Doty River, Hidden Valley, and Pecan Shores subdivisions 
  above Smithville. Flow approaches the lowest homes and the golf course near 
  Bastrop.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Bastrop            14   23   36.1   Sat 03 PM  27.5  11.4   5.5   4.9   4.5


&&

LAT...LON 3007 9737 3014 9731 3006 9717 2999 9718


$$

TXC021-149-011437-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0127.000000T0000Z-151102T1957Z/
/SMIT2.3.ER.151031T1014Z.151101T0600Z.151102T0757Z.NO/
338 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

 The flood warning continues for the Colorado River Near Smithville.
* At  3:10 PM Saturday the stage was 27.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will continue rising to near 29.3 feet by early
  Sunday morning. The river level will then begin falling and is expected to fall
  below flood stage early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet...Major flooding inundates homes five miles upstream in 
  Hidden Valley Estates, three miles upstream in Doty River Estates, one mile 
  upstream in Pecan Shores Estates just above Smithville and in Kirtley below 
  Smithville..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Smithville         10   20   27.7   Sat 03 PM  29.2  16.3   8.7   5.9   4.1


&&

LAT...LON 2999 9718 3006 9717 2996 9686 2989 9692


$$

TXC149-011437-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0128.151101T0057Z-151103T0400Z/
/LGRT2.2.ER.151101T0057Z.151101T1800Z.151102T1600Z.NO/
338 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

 The flood warning continues for the Colorado River Above La Grange.
* At  3:16 PM Saturday the stage was 20.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will rise above flood stage by Saturday evening and
  continue to rise to near 36.0 feet by Sunday afternoon. The river level will then
  fall below flood stage by late Monday morning.
* Impact...At 36.0 feet...The lowest part of the road into the Fritsch Auf 
  Subdivision just south of the Colorado River south of downtown floods. The 
  Colorado River approaches lowest homes in the Fritsch Auf Subdivision and 
  additional flow down Buckners Creek will flood them..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 La Grange          19   26   20.9   Sat 03 PM  35.2  27.9  14.4  10.1   7.7


&&

LAT...LON 2989 9692 2996 9686 2982 9669 2976 9675


$$

385 
WGUS84 KEWX 010250
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
950 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Colorado River At Bastrop Affecting Bastrop County
  Colorado River Near Smithville Affecting Bastrop and Fayette Counties
  Colorado River Above La Grange Affecting Fayette County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC021-012050-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0122.000000T0000Z-151102T0610Z/
/BRTT2.3.ER.151031T0228Z.151031T2000Z.151101T1810Z.NO/
950 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

 The flood warning continues for the Colorado River At Bastrop.
* At  9:00 PM Saturday the stage was 35.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level crested at 36.17 feet at 3:35 PM Saturday and will
  continue to fall. It is expected to fall below flood stage Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet...Disastrous flooding severely floods homes between 
  Bastrop and Smithville in the Doty River, Hidden Valley, and Pecan Shores 
  subdivisions. Livestock are extremely vulnerable in the flood plain. Roads and
  bridges flood severely and are very dangerous. Flow threatens lowest homes 
  near bastrop and facilities and lowest areas of the golf course near Bastrop.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Bastrop            14   23   35.5   Sat 09 PM  26.1  12.0   6.7   5.4   4.8


&&

LAT...LON 3007 9737 3014 9731 3006 9717 2999 9718


$$

TXC021-149-012050-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0127.000000T0000Z-151102T1604Z/
/SMIT2.3.ER.151031T1014Z.151101T0600Z.151102T0404Z.NO/
950 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

 The flood warning continues for the Colorado River Near Smithville.
* At  9:30 PM Saturday the stage was 29.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level was at or nearing its crest near 30 feet late
  Saturday evening. The river level is expected to crest around 30 feet around
  midnight Sunday then begin falling. The river level is expected to fall below
  flood stage late Sunday evening.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet...Major flooding inundates homes five miles upstream in 
  Hidden Valley Estates, three miles upstream in Doty River Estates, one mile 
  upstream in Pecan Shores Estates just above Smithville and in Kirtley below 
  Smithville..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Smithville         10   20   29.8   Sat 09 PM  29.7  12.9   5.6   4.8   4.0


&&

LAT...LON 2999 9718 3006 9717 2996 9686 2989 9692


$$

TXC149-012050-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0128.000000T0000Z-151103T0114Z/
/LGRT2.2.ER.151101T0133Z.151101T1800Z.151102T1314Z.NO/
950 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

 The flood warning continues for the Colorado River Above La Grange.
* At  9:30 PM Saturday the stage was 26.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will continue rising to around 36.0 feet by early
  afternoon on Sunday. The river level is then expected to fall and go below
  flood stage Monday morning.
* Impact...At 36.0 feet...The lowest part of the road into the Fritsch Auf 
  Subdivision just south of the Colorado River south of downtown floods. The 
  Colorado River approaches lowest homes in the Fritsch Auf Subdivision and 
  additional flow down Buckners Creek will flood them..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 La Grange          19   26   26.8   Sat 09 PM  35.2  26.2  11.0   8.7   7.7


&&

LAT...LON 2989 9692 2996 9686 2982 9669 2976 9675


$$

751 
WGUS84 KEWX 011617
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1017 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Colorado River At Bastrop Affecting Bastrop County
  Colorado River Near Smithville Affecting Bastrop and Fayette Counties
  Colorado River Above La Grange Affecting Fayette County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC021-020947-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0122.000000T0000Z-151102T0947Z/
/BRTT2.3.ER.151031T0228Z.151031T2000Z.151101T2147Z.NO/
1017 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Colorado River At Bastrop.
* At 10:00 AM Sunday the stage was 28.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet...Lowest homes in the Doty River, Hidden Valley and 
  Pecan Shores subdivisions above Smithville flood. Many primary and secondary 
  roads and bridges flood and are very dangerous to motorists. Livestock and 
  equipment should be moved from the flood plain.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Bastrop            14   23   28.8   Sun 10 AM  11.8   7.6   6.0   5.2   3.4


&&

LAT...LON 3007 9737 3014 9731 3006 9717 2999 9718


$$

TXC021-149-021016-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0127.000000T0000Z-151103T0137Z/
/SMIT2.3.ER.151031T1014Z.151101T0525Z.151102T1337Z.NO/
1017 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Colorado River Near Smithville.
* At 10:05 AM Sunday the stage was 28.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...Major flooding inundates homes five miles upstream in 
  Hidden Valley Estates, three miles upstream in Doty River Estates, one mile 
  upstream in Pecan Shores Estates just above Smithville and in Kirtley below 
  Smithville..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Smithville         10   20   28.6   Sun 10 AM  21.7   9.5   6.6   4.8   3.1


&&

LAT...LON 2999 9718 3006 9717 2996 9686 2989 9692


$$

TXC149-021016-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0128.000000T0000Z-151103T1540Z/
/LGRT2.2.ER.151101T0133Z.151102T0600Z.151103T0340Z.NO/
1017 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Colorado River Above La Grange.
* At 10:01 AM Sunday the stage was 33.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 36.0 feet by after midnight 
  tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late evening.
* Impact...At 36.0 feet...The lowest part of the road into the Fritsch Auf 
  Subdivision just south of the Colorado River south of downtown floods. The 
  Colorado River approaches lowest homes in the Fritsch Auf Subdivision and 
  additional flow down Buckners Creek will flood them..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 La Grange          19   26   33.1   Sun 10 AM  35.1  19.8  11.7   9.1   6.8


&&

LAT...LON 2989 9692 2996 9686 2982 9669 2976 9675


$$

772 
WGUS84 KEWX 020132
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
732 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Colorado River At Bastrop Affecting Bastrop County


...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Colorado River Near Smithville Affecting Bastrop and Fayette Counties
  Colorado River Above La Grange Affecting Fayette County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC021-020202-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0122.000000T0000Z-151102T0947Z/
/BRTT2.3.ER.151031T0228Z.151031T2000Z.151101T2121Z.NO/
732 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Colorado River at Bastrop.
* At 7:00 PM Sunday the stage was 18.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 8.0 feet by Tuesday morning.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Bastrop            14   23   18.7   Sun  7 PM  12.7   8.0   6.1   5.6   4.9


&&

LAT...LON 3007 9737 3014 9731 3006 9717 2999 9718


$$

TXC021-149-021932-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0127.000000T0000Z-151102T2143Z/
/SMIT2.3.ER.151031T1014Z.151101T0525Z.151102T0943Z.NO/
732 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Colorado River near Smithville.
* At 7:10 PM Sunday the stage was 25.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and the levels are forecast to fall
  into the Minor flood level overnight.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early
  Monday.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Flow threatens lowest residences five miles upstream 
  at Hidden Valley Estates and three miles upstream at Doty River Estates. Roads
  and bridges near the river flood and are dangerous to motorists.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Smithville         10   20   25.2   Sun  7 PM  18.6   8.7   6.0   4.8   4.2


&&

LAT...LON 2999 9718 3006 9717 2996 9686 2989 9692


$$

TXC149-021932-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0128.000000T0000Z-151103T1935Z/
/LGRT2.2.ER.151101T0133Z.151102T0600Z.151103T0735Z.NO/
732 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Colorado River above La Grange.
* At 7:16 PM Sunday the stage was 34.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 35 feet Sunday night.
  The river will fall below flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 36.0 feet...The lowest part of the road into the Fritsch Auf 
  Subdivision just south of the Colorado River south of downtown floods. The 
  Colorado River approaches lowest homes in the Fritsch Auf Subdivision and 
  additional flow down Buckners Creek will flood them.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 La Grange          19   26   34.7   Sun  7 PM  34.9  22.4  11.8   9.4   7.7


&&

LAT...LON 2989 9692 2996 9686 2982 9669 2976 9675


$$

342 
WGUS84 KEWX 021545
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
945 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Colorado River Near Smithville Affecting Bastrop and Fayette Counties
  
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Colorado River Above La Grange Affecting Fayette County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC021-149-021615-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0127.000000T0000Z-151102T2143Z/
/SMIT2.3.ER.151031T1014Z.151101T0525Z.151102T0741Z.NO/
945 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Colorado River Near Smithville.
* At  9:10 AM Monday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 8.0 feet by tomorrow morning.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Smithville         10   20   12.6    Mon 9 AM   8.0   5.5   4.5   3.5   2.9


&&

LAT...LON 2999 9718 3006 9717 2996 9686 2989 9692


$$

TXC149-030945-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0128.000000T0000Z-151103T2049Z/
/LGRT2.2.ER.151101T0133Z.151102T0810Z.151103T0849Z.NO/
945 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Colorado River Above La Grange.
* At  9:31 AM Monday the stage was 34.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by after 
  midnight tomorrow.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding reaches the flood plain near
  La Grange. Homes in the Fritsch Auf Subdivision on the south bank of the 
  Colorado River may be threatened if heavy runoff down Buckners Creek adds to 
  the Colorado River flow at this level..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 La Grange          19   26   34.0   Mon 10 AM  23.3  10.7   7.7   6.0   5.0


&&

LAT...LON 2989 9692 2996 9686 2982 9669 2976 9675


$$

222 
WGUS84 KEWX 030122
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
722 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Colorado River Above La Grange Affecting Fayette County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC149-031808-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0128.000000T0000Z-151103T1808Z/
/LGRT2.2.ER.151101T0133Z.151102T0810Z.151103T0608Z.NO/
722 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Colorado River Above La Grange.
* At  7:01 PM Monday the stage was 28.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...After cresting last night the river will continue to fall 
  to below flood stage overnight tonight.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet...Flow covers lowest areas of the flood plain with no 
  major damage. Lowest roads and bridges are flooded..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 La Grange          19   26   28.3   Mon 07 PM  21.7  10.9   9.3   7.8   7.3


&&

LAT...LON 2989 9692 2996 9686 2982 9669 2976 9675


$$

304 
WGUS84 KEWX 031421
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
821 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Colorado River Above La Grange Affecting Fayette County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC149-031451-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0128.000000T0000Z-151103T1808Z/
/LGRT2.2.ER.151101T0133Z.151102T0810Z.151103T0323Z.NO/
821 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Colorado River Above La Grange.
* At  8:16 AM Tuesday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 8.2 feet by tomorrow morning.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun
 La Grange          19   26   13.1    Tue 8 AM   8.2   5.7   4.4   4.1   4.0


&&

LAT...LON 2989 9692 2996 9686 2982 9669 2976 9675


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 30, 6:45 PM CDT, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 30, 6:45 PM CDT, 2 hours 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ROUND TWO OF STORMS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS VAL VERDE
COUNTY AT THE PRESENT TIME. ONE SEVERE STORM IS ALREADY ONGOING
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS WEST
OF A KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING EAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WITH
SBCAPES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 55-70 KNOTS. A PACIFIC FRONT OR DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS
THE SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD NOT
MOVE INTO OUR REGION UNTIL AFTER DAY BREAK. HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT
SHOWS THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 14Z TOMORROW
MORNING WITH WEST WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
CLEARING THINGS OUT. WITH AN ACTUAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD NOT RECEIVE FURTHER PROLONGED
CONVECTION. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SUPPORTS OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF
1-2 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 5 INCH TOTAL. EVEN THOUGH THESE TOTALS
ARE NOT HIGH...1-2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO FURTHER QUICK RISES OF
AREA CREEKS WHICH ALREADY RECEIVED EXTREME RAINFALL TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THIS EVENING
WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHING FROM WEST TEXAS TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THIS
SCENARIO IN PLACE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 52 KNOTS. DURING THESE
STORMS CIGS AND VBSYS WITH LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED FIRST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND MID MORNING (16Z) SATURDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AFFECTING THE THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...AWAY FROM AREA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A RELATIVE LULL IN OUR HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AS MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE NOW THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR
CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ALTHOUGH CAPE IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY LIMITED NORTH OF AN AUSTIN TO LA
GRANGE LINE...EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING
300 M^2/S^2 AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45 KTS WILL ALLOW ANY
STRONGER CELLS TO ROTATE SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED
THE TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST SIX COUNTIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 7PM CDT AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC OUT OF AN
ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION SHOULD CAPE RECOVER MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES AS THE LAST FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ONION CREEK
HAS EXPIRED BEFORE TWO SEPARATE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.

ATTENTION FOR OUR FIRST ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR...HILL COUNTRY...AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU TURNS OUT WEST WHERE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR PSEUDO DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE SERRENIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION IN THE NE PART OF SAN ANGELOS CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH SOME AGITATED CU IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 12Z TX TECH WRF HAVE HANDLED THE
TIMING OF THIS INITIATION RELATIVELY WELL COMPARED TO MOST OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE...SO TRUST THAT AT LEAST A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9-10 PM CDT. FAVORABLE
HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD
THESE CELLS DEVELOP AND REMAIN FAIRLY DISCRETE...SO STRAIGHT LINE
WIND DAMAGE...SEVERE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH THE MOST RECENT RUN OF
THE HRRR AND TX TECH WRF INDICATE WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AROUND 3-5 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCLUDE A
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN THE 5-10 INCHES AND ISOLATED 12-16 INCH TOTALS THAT HAVE
FALLEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM A SWATH FROM FAR NW BEXAR
COUNTY TO WIMBERLEY TO EAST AUSTIN TO ELGIN...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THAT FALLS WILL DIRECTLY RUNOFF RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING AND FURTHER COMPLICATING ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 4 INCHES. SOME
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS MAY BE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
WHILE THE TX TECH WRF SHOWS IT WILL BE CONTINUOUS...SO HOPEFULLY
THE BROKEN LINE MATERIALIZES TO HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THESE ISSUES
OR THE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO CAUSE A COOL AND
DRY HALLOWEEN NIGHT FOR TRICK OR TREATING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DOES NOT
BEGIN TO RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  79  57  77  50 /  70  40  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  80  57  77  48 /  70  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  83  57  78  51 /  70  40  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  75  54  75  51 /  80  30  10  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  79  53  82  51 /  60  10   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  77  55  75  51 /  80  40  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  82  54  80  50 /  60  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  80  57  77  51 /  70  40  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  81  59  76  53 /  80  60  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  83  56  78  51 /  70  20  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  84  57  79  51 /  70  20  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 30, 6:32 PM CDT, 2 hours 35 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-312345-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
632 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
REACHING 5 INCHES WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING FOR
LOCATIONS WHICH ALREADY RECEIVED EXTREME RAINFALL TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. HEAVY RAINFALL
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENTLY LIGHTNING WILL ALSO EXIST WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE FRONT. A STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH BY WEDNESDAY BUT NO WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 30, 7:44 PM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
744 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W LEXINGTON           30.41N  97.03W
10/30/2015                   LEE                TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM696 JUST WEST OF LEXINGTON IS BEING CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER. SHERIFFS OFFICE ALSO REPORTS THERE ARE A
            NUMBER OF ROADS AROUND THE COUNTY THAT HAVE WATER OVER
            THEM

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500851

SBS

Local storm report, Oct 30, 7:51 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
751 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     17 N BRACKETTVILLE      29.56N 100.41W
10/30/2015  M82 MPH          KINNEY             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500852

SBS

Local storm report, Oct 30, 8:13 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
813 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     TSTM WND GST     KICKAPOO CAVERN STATE P 29.61N 100.45W
10/30/2015  M66 MPH          KINNEY             TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500853

SBS

Special weather statement, Oct 30, 8:43 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
843 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ183-310230-
VAL VERDE TX-
843 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

AT 842 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SEMINOLE CANYON STATE PARK...OR 9 MILES WEST OF COMSTOCK...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL MOVE EAST GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY
90.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COMSTOCK...SEMINOLE CANYON STATE PARK...SHUMLA...PAFFORD CROSSING...
DEVILS RIVER STATE NATURAL AREA...ROUGH CANYON REC AREA AND DEVILS
SHORES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2997 10084 2955 10082 2958 10125 2963 10126
      2962 10128 2958 10128 2958 10131 2965 10130
      2966 10135 2965 10136 2970 10137 2971 10140
      2973 10139 2975 10142 2977 10140 2976 10142
      2980 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 262DEG 22KT 2970 10133

CP

Special weather statement, Oct 30, 8:49 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
849 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ183-310230-
VAL VERDE TX-
849 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 848 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PANDALE...OR 28 MILES WEST OF JUNO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PANDALE AND HACKBERRY CROSSING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3029 10117 3016 10115 3015 10165 3029 10167
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 262DEG 21KT 3026 10159

CP

Special weather statement, Oct 30, 9:06 PM CDT, 1 minute before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
906 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ183-310245-
VAL VERDE TX-
906 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 905 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANDALE...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF LANGTRY...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PANDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3014 10176 3029 10140 3029 10131 2997 10123
      2998 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 251DEG 20KT 3008 10165

CP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 30, 7:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Edwards, Kinney, Val Verde	53 min
Oct 30, 7:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Edwards, Kinney, Real, Uvalde	62 min
Oct 30, 8:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Edwards, Kinney, Real, Uvalde	57 min
Oct 30, 8:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Val Verde	47 min
Oct 30, 8:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Val Verde	41 min
Oct 30, 9:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Val Verde	39 min
Oct 30, 9:07 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EWX	Bastrop, Fayette	62 hr
Oct 30, 9:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Real	57 min
Oct 30, 9:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bandera, Kerr, Real	61 min
Oct 30, 9:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Val Verde	29 min
Oct 30, 9:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Val Verde	40 min
Oct 30, 10:16 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell, Guadalupe, Hays, Travis, Williamson	6 hr
Oct 30, 10:19 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Val Verde	3 hr
Oct 30, 10:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bastrop, Lee	6 hr
Oct 30, 10:21 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell, Guadalupe, Hays, Travis, Williamson	6 hr
Oct 30, 10:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Edwards, Kinney, Val Verde	63 min
Oct 30, 10:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Kerr	45 min
Oct 30, 10:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Edwards	52 min
Oct 30, 11:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bandera, Edwards, Kerr, Real	77 min
Oct 30, 11:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Kinney	61 min
Oct 30, 11:32 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EWX	Gillespie	43 min
Oct 31, 12:06 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Llano	39 min
Oct 31, 12:25 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Bandera, Gillespie, Kerr, Real	65 min
Oct 31, 1:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Bandera, Blanco, Burnet, Gillespie, Kendall, Llano	72 min
Oct 31, 1:28 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bandera, Gillespie, Kerr	3 hr
Oct 31, 2:12 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Blanco, Burnet, Travis, Williamson	78 min
Oct 31, 2:30 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Comal, Hays and 4 more	7 hr
Oct 31, 2:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Atascosa, Bexar, Frio, Medina, Wilson	64 min
Oct 31, 3:37 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Guadalupe, Wilson	53 min
Oct 31, 3:47 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell, Guadalupe, Lee, Williamson	5 hr
Oct 31, 4:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell, Lee, Travis	58 min
Oct 31, 4:27 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell, DeWitt, Fayette, Gonzales, Lee	63 min
Oct 31, 5:37 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Caldwell, Fayette, Gonzales, Lavaca	113 min
Oct 31, 9:19 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell, Comal, Guadalupe, Hays, Lee and 2 more	6 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Texas, 2015 Every river flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.