Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
202 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL GENERATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WITH ISOLATED STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALLS WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING...HAIL AND STRONG
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PRODUCER
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRIER THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST MESOANALYSES DATA SHOWING A RATHER
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.2 TO 1.4
INCHES AND MUCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION DCAPES ARE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS PRESENT SO WARM TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING INITIAL CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT
OUTFLOWS CAUSING ACTIVITY TO SPREAD.

TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CWA WITH THE BOUNDARY BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY FROM NEAR THE
MEXICO BORDER TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL THEREFORE REMAIN HIGH WITH VALUES
AROUND 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES ON SUNDAY WHILE MUCAPES WILL BE AROUND
1000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INDUCED BY FRONT PLUS
UPSLOPE FLOW AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO COMBINE SUSTAIN
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE PLUS A WIND PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT OR BACK BUILDING STORMS THE PRIMARY WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH OVER 2 INCH RAINFALLS EXPECTED OVER ISOLATED AREAS. IN
ADDITION THE DCAPE AND INSTABILITY VALUES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OCCURRING WITH
SEVERAL STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY STRONG UPPER HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND WARM AIR
ALOFT CAUSING AIR MASS TO STABILIZE AND BECOME A LITTLE DRIER.
THUS EXPECT DIMINISHING THREAT OF CONVECTION AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MOST STORMS FORMING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LATER PERIODS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED STORMS THAT MAY POP UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FREQUENCY OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHER AND
CIGS WILL BE LOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SKY CONDITIONS OF P6SM
SCT-BKN090-120 SCT-BKN250. ISOLD 1-3SM TSRA BKN050-070 AFT 18Z. SFC
WINDS SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS...BECOMING MORE WEST AFT 18Z AND G
40 PSBL NR STORMS. BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE NE ARN 09Z-15Z
ENE 10G29 WITH G 25-30 KT WEST SLOPES/PASSES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. STORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND BECOMES MORE FOCUSED AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND
DROP ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COOLING AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE REGION AND THE SHIFTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME MORE TO THE
WEST. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  91  72  93 /  40  40  40  10
SIERRA BLANCA           69  90  68  91 /  40  40  40  10
LAS CRUCES              69  89  67  89 /  40  40  40  10
ALAMOGORDO              70  91  68  92 /  30  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              54  68  53  70 /  50  80  70  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  88  67  89 /  20  30  40  20
SILVER CITY             63  82  63  83 /  30  50  50  40
DEMING                  69  90  68  91 /  30  40  40  20
LORDSBURG               68  90  68  91 /  30  40  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      73  92  72  94 /  40  40  40  10
DELL CITY               72  92  70  94 /  40  40  40  10
FORT HANCOCK            70  93  68  94 /  50  40  40  10
LOMA LINDA              69  86  67  89 /  40  40  40  10
FABENS                  70  93  68  94 /  40  40  40  10
SANTA TERESA            72  91  70  91 /  40  40  40  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  91  68  92 /  40  40  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           68  90  67  91 /  30  40  40  20
HATCH                   68  91  67  92 /  30  40  40  20
COLUMBUS                70  91  69  91 /  30  40  40  20
OROGRANDE               71  91  70  92 /  30  40  30  10
MAYHILL                 58  74  57  77 /  40  60  60  40
MESCALERO               57  76  56  79 /  40  70  60  60
TIMBERON                61  76  59  78 /  50  60  60  40
WINSTON                 60  79  59  81 /  50  50  50  40
HILLSBORO               65  88  63  88 /  30  40  50  40
SPACEPORT               68  89  67  90 /  20  30  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            57  82  56  82 /  40  60  60  60
HURLEY                  64  85  64  85 /  30  40  50  40
CLIFF                   63  89  63  88 /  40  50  40  40
MULE CREEK              59  87  59  86 /  40  50  40  40
FAYWOOD                 65  86  64  86 /  30  40  50  40
ANIMAS                  68  89  68  91 /  30  40  40  30
HACHITA                 67  89  67  91 /  30  40  40  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  85  65  88 /  30  60  60  30
CLOVERDALE              64  82  64  85 /  40  50  60  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1245 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-232015-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-EASTERN BLACK
RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-
SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO
MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1245 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALLS...HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH WHICH MAY CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL
FALL OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY:SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALLS...HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO  60 MPH WHICH MAY CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE.
OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS RESULTING IN
FLASH FLOODING.

MONDAY: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALLS...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL OVER A FEW LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AROUND MOUNTAIN AREAS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER TO OUR OFFICE VIA THE SPOTTER PHONE NUMBER OR VIA TWITTER
WITH OUR HANDLE @NWSELPASO

ROGASH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1255 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

NMZ402-403-408-409-221945-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES NM-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS NM-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY NM-
SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE NM-
1255 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND
SOUTHWESTERN SIERRA COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM MDT...

AT 1251 PM MDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING THE CREST AND
EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK RANGE IN EASTERN GRANT AND WESTERN SIERRA
COUNTIES.  THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY...AND MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING...AND IF IT PERSISTS...MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILLSBORO...
EMORY PASS...
KINGSTON...
HERMOSA...
IRON CREEK CAMPGROUND.
PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 152 IN THE VICINITY OF EMORY PASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3314 10762 3293 10750 3276 10759 3273 10771
      3276 10784 3311 10788 3316 10775
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 340DEG 3KT 3289 10775

HARDIMAN