Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
347 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BECOME COOLER ON SUNDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE
OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED AND
ISOLATED NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE WEST. THE DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MORE ACTIVE AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS PEAK
ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE STATE BUT MOISTURE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE HIGH
CIRCULATION WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FUEL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE SLOW MOVING
WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR HIGHER.

SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE FRONT WILL HELP
FOCUS AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
THAT MAY TURN OUT TO SUPPRESS SOME STORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA BUT OVERALL DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTED THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.

MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATION ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS A RESULT
THE LOCAL AREA WILL COME UNDER AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW
PATTERN. THIS CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER WEST INTO ARIZONA AND BRING IN DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR TO
THE LOCAL AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THE DRYING AFFECTS OF THE
STRONG HIGH CIRCULATION WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LIMITED TO ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHILE
THE LOWLANDS STAY MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO
CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WEEK.

TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PUT THE
LOCAL AREA UNDER A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH COULD RESULT
IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND
ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED STORMS THAT MAY POP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FREQUENCY OF STORMS WILL
BE HIGHER AND CIGS WILL BE LOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SKY
CONDITIONS OF P6SM SCT-BKN090-120 SCT-BKN250. ISOLD 1-3SM TSRA
BKN050-070 AFT 18Z. SFC WINDS SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS...BECOMING
MORE WEST AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION GRADUALLY RAISES MOISTURE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL FUEL ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ENHANCED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING PRECIP WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PUSHED FURTHER TO THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS. AS A RESULT WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOWLANDS SHOULD
SEE MIN RH VALUES OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT VALUES
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 99  73  91  72 /  20  30  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           95  69  90  68 /  20  30  30  30
LAS CRUCES              97  69  89  67 /  20  30  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              98  70  91  68 /  20  20  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              76  54  68  53 /  40  40  80  70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  69  88  67 /  20  20  30  40
SILVER CITY             87  63  82  63 /  30  30  50  50
DEMING                  97  69  90  68 /  20  20  30  40
LORDSBURG               95  68  90  68 /  20  20  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      99  73  92  72 /  20  30  30  40
DELL CITY              101  72  92  70 /  20  30  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            99  70  93  68 /  20  40  30  30
LOMA LINDA              94  69  86  67 /  20  40  40  30
FABENS                  99  70  93  68 /  20  40  40  30
SANTA TERESA            98  72  91  70 /  20  30  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          97  70  91  68 /  20  30  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           97  68  90  67 /  20  20  40  30
HATCH                   98  68  91  67 /  20  20  30  30
COLUMBUS                97  70  91  69 /  20  20  40  40
OROGRANDE               97  71  91  70 /  20  20  40  30
MAYHILL                 85  58  74  57 /  40  30  60  60
MESCALERO               85  57  76  56 /  30  30  70  60
TIMBERON                84  61  76  59 /  30  40  60  60
WINSTON                 86  60  79  59 /  50  40  50  50
HILLSBORO               94  65  88  63 /  40  20  40  50
SPACEPORT               96  68  89  67 /  20  20  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            87  57  82  56 /  40  30  60  60
HURLEY                  90  64  85  64 /  20  20  40  50
CLIFF                   93  63  89  63 /  20  40  50  40
MULE CREEK              90  59  87  59 /  20  40  50  40
FAYWOOD                 92  65  86  64 /  30  20  40  50
ANIMAS                  93  68  89  68 /  20  20  40  40
HACHITA                 94  67  89  67 /  20  20  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          90  65  85  65 /  40  30  50  60
CLOVERDALE              85  64  82  64 /  30  40  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

99/04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1245 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-232015-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-EASTERN BLACK
RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-
SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO
MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1245 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALLS...HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH WHICH MAY CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL
FALL OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY:SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALLS...HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO  60 MPH WHICH MAY CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE.
OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS RESULTING IN
FLASH FLOODING.

MONDAY: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALLS...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL OVER A FEW LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AROUND MOUNTAIN AREAS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER TO OUR OFFICE VIA THE SPOTTER PHONE NUMBER OR VIA TWITTER
WITH OUR HANDLE @NWSELPASO

ROGASH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1255 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

NMZ402-403-408-409-221945-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES NM-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS NM-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY NM-
SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE NM-
1255 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND
SOUTHWESTERN SIERRA COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM MDT...

AT 1251 PM MDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING THE CREST AND
EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK RANGE IN EASTERN GRANT AND WESTERN SIERRA
COUNTIES.  THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY...AND MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING...AND IF IT PERSISTS...MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILLSBORO...
EMORY PASS...
KINGSTON...
HERMOSA...
IRON CREEK CAMPGROUND.
PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 152 IN THE VICINITY OF EMORY PASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3314 10762 3293 10750 3276 10759 3273 10771
      3276 10784 3311 10788 3316 10775
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 340DEG 3KT 3289 10775

HARDIMAN