Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

A few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to be
possible this morning throughout the forecast area as a shortwave
trough drops to the southeast, then should exit the region by late
morning or early afternoon as the wave departs and surface high
pressure begins to build in from the northwest. Any storms that
develop will be elevated in the wake of yesterday evening's cold
frontal passage, but hail or briefly strong winds are possible with
MUCAPE lingering in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and 30-35 kts of deep
layer shear supporting weak/transient supercell structures. Patchy
fog is also possible this morning as moisture pools just behind the
surface boundary, but should begin to mix out around daybreak.
Strengthening northerly winds this afternoon will gradually allow
cooler temperatures and lower humidity to drift in, which will
persist into at least midweek.

North to northwest flow aloft and persistent surface high pressure
will result in one of the quietest weather weeks in recent memory,
as well as near to slightly below normal high temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s through Thursday or Friday. After this morning, no
precipitation is expected throughout the CWA until the blocking
upper-level high pressure over the desert southwest breaks down late
this coming weekend into early next week and disturbances can once
again traverse eastward into the region. Temperatures will gradually
increase by the end of the work week into the weekend when ridging
bulges northeastward out of the southwest, returning at least to
the upper 80s to lower 90s by Saturday and especially Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

VFR conditions have spread across all the terminals as of last hour
with VFR conditions expected to persist through the daylight hours.
Only issues this afternoon will be thunderstorms bubbling up, but
current trends indicate that VCTS is all that is needed for the next
two hours. Otherwise, surface winds will remain light and generally
from the north overnight as a surface ridge spread south. Light winds
and mostly clear skies overnight might allow some light surface fog,
especially in KSTJ.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
218 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

MOZ037-038-043>045-101945-
PETTIS MO-JOHNSON MO-JACKSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-CASS MO-
218 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PETTIS...SOUTHERN
LAFAYETTE...JOHNSON...NORTHEASTERN CASS AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 217 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE LOTAWANA TO 7
MILES SOUTH OF ODESSA TO NEAR CONCORDIA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLUE SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...KNOB NOSTER...CONCORDIA...HOLDEN...LAKE
LOTAWANA...WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE...LA MONTE...LONE JACK...LEETON...
CHILHOWEE...KINGSVILLE...WHITEMAN AFB...LAKE LAFAYETTE...
CENTERVIEW...EMMA...STRASBURG...PITTSVILLE...FAYETTEVILLE AND TARSNEY
LAKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3864 9409 3899 9434 3894 9401 3898 9351
      3896 9349 3894 9350 3894 9347 3875 9326
      3856 9365 3856 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 308DEG 33KT 3897 9425 3890 9394 3893 9353

32

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