Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

A few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to be
possible this morning throughout the forecast area as a shortwave
trough drops to the southeast, then should exit the region by late
morning or early afternoon as the wave departs and surface high
pressure begins to build in from the northwest. Any storms that
develop will be elevated in the wake of yesterday evening's cold
frontal passage, but hail or briefly strong winds are possible with
MUCAPE lingering in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and 30-35 kts of deep
layer shear supporting weak/transient supercell structures. Patchy
fog is also possible this morning as moisture pools just behind the
surface boundary, but should begin to mix out around daybreak.
Strengthening northerly winds this afternoon will gradually allow
cooler temperatures and lower humidity to drift in, which will
persist into at least midweek.

North to northwest flow aloft and persistent surface high pressure
will result in one of the quietest weather weeks in recent memory,
as well as near to slightly below normal high temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s through Thursday or Friday. After this morning, no
precipitation is expected throughout the CWA until the blocking
upper-level high pressure over the desert southwest breaks down late
this coming weekend into early next week and disturbances can once
again traverse eastward into the region. Temperatures will gradually
increase by the end of the work week into the weekend when ridging
bulges northeastward out of the southwest, returning at least to
the upper 80s to lower 90s by Saturday and especially Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

Overnight convection is possible as a cold front approaches the area
from the northwest. This activity overall should weaken as it pushes
southeastward, and thus may not hold together by the time it reaches
the terminal sites. The other possible impact will be fog
development, particularly over KSTJ during the early morning hours.
Otherwise, still expecting mid-levels to dry out following this
overnight activity with clearing cloud cover through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
446 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
446 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN MO THIS MORNING BEFORE
 SHIFTING EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
 WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

 SCATTERED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
 ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND COULD
 PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

 HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 102 TO 106 DEGREE RANGE
 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
221 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

MOZ001-002-100800-
NODAWAY MO-ATCHISON MO-
221 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ATCHISON AND
NORTHWESTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 221 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
COIN...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF TARKIO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON JUNCTION...CLEARMONT...ELMO...BRADDYVILLE...QUITMAN AND
BLANCHARD.

LAT...LON 4058 9491 4057 9487 4054 9482 4035 9507
      4058 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 0721Z 316DEG 18KT 4068 9524

LEIGHTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
306 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

MOZ002-100845-
NODAWAY MO-
306 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NODAWAY COUNTY UNTIL 345
AM CDT...

AT 306 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BURLINGTON JUNCTION...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARYVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARYVILLE...BURLINGTON JUNCTION...SKIDMORE...BARNARD...GRAHAM...ARKOE
AND QUITMAN.

LAT...LON 4043 9514 4049 9498 4028 9470 4016 9482
      4018 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0806Z 327DEG 24KT 4041 9503

LEIGHTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
421 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

MOZ043-044-054-101000-
HENRY MO-JOHNSON MO-CASS MO-
421 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON...
NORTHEASTERN CASS AND NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

AT 421 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BALDWIN PARK...OR NEAR PLEASANT HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLEASANT HILL...HOLDEN...EAST LYNNE...KINGSVILLE...BALDWIN PARK...
STRASBURG...GUNN CITY...BLAIRSTOWN...QUICK CITY AND LA TOUR.

LAT...LON 3853 9414 3876 9431 3884 9419 3883 9417
      3883 9412 3886 9411 3868 9382 3851 9392
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 320DEG 27KT 3876 9417

LEIGHTON