Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

The pattern will look to remain active through this forecast period
with several rounds of thunderstorms over the next seven days. The
first round of thunderstorms is expected tonight out ahead of an
approaching cold front. That cold front is analyzed extending from
near Sioux Falls to Hill City, Kansas. This front will continue to
sink southeast this evening and convection is expected to blossom
along the front across Nebraska. This front will continue to slowly
south tonight reaching extreme northwest Missouri. Thunderstorms
will move into the northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas after
midnight however, weak forcing and weak instability will keep
thunderstorms of the garden variety. Models agree that the front
will stall across northwest Missouri into southern Iowa by tomorrow
morning however, models are also indicating that showers and
thunderstorms will continue southward into the southern CWA on an
outflow boundary. As such, have likely POPs across northern Missouri
with chance POPs elsewhere. The overnight/morning round of
thunderstorms will diminish by mid-morning however, tomorrow
afternoon the models indicate an subtle upper level shortwave will
move across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. This feature
coupled with differential heating alone the stalled surface boundary
will spark another round of convection. Shear and lift continue to
be weak however, instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will allow
the chance for a few strong storms capable of producing low-end
severe hail and locally damaging winds. The best chance for storms
appears to be along and north of I-70 and as such have delineated
the POPs accordingly with categorical POPs along and north of Hwy
36, likelies along the I-70 corridor and chance and slight chance
POPs across the south. On Monday night/Tuesday the front will being
to lift north in response to height rises across the area as a
negatively tilted upper level trough moves from the southwestern
CONUS into the western High Plains. Conditions will be warm and
breezy but dry on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

The extended timeframe looks to feature several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. The first will come Wednesday morning as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves into the Plains. This trough
seems to weaken as is does and considering the time of day (morning)
that storms will move into the area, severe weather is not
anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected through the Day on Wednesday
into Wednesday night before the upper level trough shifts into the
Upper Midwest. Another upper level trough will slowly dig south
along the western CONUS on Thursday and slowly more to the eastern
Rockies by Sunday. Several lead shortwave are progged to eject out
from this trough through that period and move into the area on
southwest flow aloft. This will allow for the chance of
thunderstorms everyday through this period however, differences in
timing of these shortwave makes it difficult to pin down the best
periods for thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to weaken and shift
eastward along the MO/IA border, and should not impact any of the TAF
sites this evening. Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop
across eastern KS and western MO after 09z, but probability and
coverage of any storms will be low. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
104 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-041815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
104 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
 AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH DECAYING
 STORMS IN THE MORNING AND REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
 EVENING. A FEW OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS COULD BE STRONG
 TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

 ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE
 THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME...A FEW STRONG STORMS
 CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

 WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...PARTS OF
 NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS MAY SEE SEVERAL
 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
835 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MOZ002-040215-
NODAWAY MO-
835 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NODAWAY COUNTY UNTIL 915
PM CDT...

AT 834 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BURLINGTON JUNCTION...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MARYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HOPKINS...PICKERING AND PARNELL.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4058 9492 4058 9476 4057 9463 4047 9463
      4047 9461 4041 9461 4042 9507 4057 9508
      4058 9502 4058 9493
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 259DEG 20KT 4049 9498

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1248 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

MOZ001-040645-
ATCHISON MO-
1248 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATCHISON COUNTY UNTIL 145 AM
CDT...

AT 1246 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HAMBURG...OR 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TARKIO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TARKIO...ROCKPORT...FAIRFAX...WATSON...PHELPS CITY AND WESTBORO.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 105 AND 123.

LAT...LON 4059 9571 4058 9520 4048 9520 4048 9519
      4030 9518 4034 9563 4041 9566 4043 9565
      4045 9565 4047 9570 4049 9569 4051 9570
      4052 9566 4054 9566 4056 9568 4052 9570
      4052 9576 4058 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 0547Z 304DEG 20KT 4063 9569

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
140 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

MOZ002-011-040715-
HOLT MO-NODAWAY MO-
140 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NODAWAY AND NORTHEASTERN
HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 139 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAITLAND...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOUND
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MARYVILLE AND ARKOE.

LAT...LON 4036 9480 4019 9476 4016 9510 4030 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0641Z 263DEG 26KT 4025 9505

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
221 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

MOZ002-004-040800-
GENTRY MO-NODAWAY MO-
221 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NODAWAY AND WESTERN
GENTRY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 219 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  STANBERRY...GUILFORD...CONCEPTION JUNCTION...CONCEPTION AND CLYDE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4033 9443 4012 9443 4016 9487 4034 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0721Z 269DEG 23KT 4025 9475

BLAIR