Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Kansas City, MO

914 
WGUS73 KEAX 050222
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
922 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

KSC043-MOC021-050237-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150505T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DONIPHAN KS-BUCHANAN MO-
922 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BUCHANAN AND SOUTHEASTERN DONIPHAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3982 9521 3982 9474 3963 9473 3961 9506
      3962 9506 3962 9510 3965 9512 3965 9520

$$

GITRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Main concern for aviators during this TAF cycle will be the potential
for thunderstorm activity at the terminals from late this afternoon
into tonight. VFR conds are expected thru the period with sct-bkn
mid-lvl clouds this afternoon giving way to a bkn deck around 5kft
around 22Z-00Z when thunderstorms move into the terminals. Vis
restrictions are not expected with these storms. Storms are expected
to cont at the terminals thru 05Z-07Z when thunderstorms will shift
north of the terminals however a few could remain in the VC in the
terminals until the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Otrw...expect clouds too
sct out around 10kft tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
106 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
106 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A
 FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
 KANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE
 THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME...A FEW STRONG STORMS
 ARE POSSIBLE.

 WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK...PARTS OF
 NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF
 RAINFALL BY FRIDAY MORNING.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
511 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

KSZ025-102-MOZ020-028-042245-
ATCHISON KS-BUCHANAN MO-DONIPHAN KS-PLATTE MO-
511 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PLATTE...
SOUTHWESTERN BUCHANAN...SOUTHEASTERN DONIPHAN AND NORTHEASTERN
ATCHISON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 509 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TROY TO RUSHVILLE TO
6 MILES SOUTH OF ATCHISON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BEAN LAKE...DE KALB...IATAN AND FAUCETT.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 24 AND 43.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3970 9479 3956 9479 3943 9479 3951 9523
      3966 9515 3978 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 290DEG 24KT 3976 9512 3962 9501
          3948 9509

GITRO/PMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E ST. JOSEPH          39.77N 94.81W
05/04/2015  M59 MPH          BUCHANAN           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEASURED BY BROADCAST MEDIA ON EAST SIDE OF ST JOSEPH

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. JOSEPH              39.77N 94.85W
05/04/2015                   BUCHANAN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AROUND ST JOSEPH ALONG WITH MULTIPLE
            POWER OUTAGES

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DENTON                  39.73N 95.27W
05/04/2015                   DONIPHAN           KS   STORM CHASER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
630 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

KSZ103-MOZ028-050000-
LEAVENWORTH KS-PLATTE MO-
630 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PLATTE AND NORTHERN
LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 628 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LANSING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LANSING...LEAVENWORTH...STILLINGS...EAST LEAVENWORTH AND FORT
  LEAVENWORTH.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3942 9500 3942 9498 3931 9482 3916 9496
      3921 9512
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 205DEG 25KT 3926 9498

PMM/GITRO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

MOZ020-021-028-029-050000-
BUCHANAN MO-CLAY MO-CLINTON MO-PLATTE MO-
635 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PLATTE...CLINTON...
NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
CDT...

AT 632 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TRIMBLE...OR NEAR SMITHVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GOWER...PLATTSBURG...LATHROP...EDGERTON...TRIMBLE AND TURNEY.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 36 AND 44.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3974 9457 3974 9437 3957 9421 3945 9436
      3931 9457 3939 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 216DEG 24KT 3946 9457

PMM