Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Forecast challenges include excessive heat, timing for convection,
and heavy rain threat over northern Missouri. Despite convective
debris this morning temperatures recovered quickly over most of the
area. The exception was over far north central and northeast Missouri
where thunderstorm activity dove south from Iowa. Convection over
eastern part of the forecast area appears to be starting to weaken
however still moving into very warm unstable air so would not be
surprised to see it linger into the evening hours.

For the overnight, upper wave forecast to top the upper ridge
centered over the central Plains. With weak surface boundary pushing
into northern Missouri later tonight and precipitable water values
pushing 2 inches, heavy rain certainly a possibility generally north
of highway 36.

With surface boundary in the vicinity and on-going morning convection
temperatures in northern Missouri should be below heat advisory
criteria. However further south...generally south of the Missouri
River...less cloud cover along with the position of the upper ridge
should allow heat index values to once again climb in excess of 105
degrees. Although readings should be a couple of degrees cooler
tomorrow than today most locations south of the Missouri river should
reach advisory criteria. As a result a heat advisory will be in
effect for this area. Depending on extent of overnight convection not
out of the question that KC metro and southwestern part of forecast
area could approach warning criteria.

Once again on Saturday night and Sunday good chances for convection
especially over northern Missouri. Sunday looks to be warm again,
however still a lot of questions regarding timing and position of
thunderstorm activity and as a result will hold off on heat advisory
at this time.

Generally warm conditions continue into the first part of next week
until a front approaches the region on Wednesday bringing another
chance for thunderstorm activity. This should bring drier and bit
cooler air into the region for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Storms over northeast KS should begin to weaken shortly, and
confidence is not terribly high that they can last long enough to
impact the KC area airports. After this activity dissipates, there
could be a very isolated storm again this afternoon with betterchances
later tonight particularly just to the north of KC.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Saturday for
     KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ038>040-044>046-054.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-
     012-020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Saturday for
     MOZ028-029-037-043-053.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>005-013>015-
     022>024-030>032.

&&

UPDATE...Mitchell
DISCUSSION...Mitchell
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
451 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-251000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
451 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 HEAT INDICES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 115
 DEGREES TODAY.

 ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NORTH OF INTERSTATE
 70 WITH THE THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

 A HEAT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
 MAY RISE TO 105-110 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

 THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH
 OF THE AREA WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
223 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S LIVONIA             40.39N 92.70W
07/24/2015  E50 MPH          PUTNAM             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAIN

&&

CUTTER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MOZ024-025-242045-
MACON MO-LINN MO-
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LINN AND MACON COUNTIES
UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 314 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNING TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF BUCKLIN TO NEAR LA PLATA...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEVIER...BUCKLIN...ATLANTA...CALLAO...NEW CAMBRIA...ELMER...ETHEL...
SOUTH GIFFORD...SAINT CATHERINE AND NEW BOSTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3981 9236 3970 9271 3977 9305 4003 9305
      4004 9303 4001 9283 4004 9270 4004 9254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 342DEG 24KT 3995 9302 3991 9280 3998 9257

LEIGHTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
317 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W NOVINGER            40.23N 92.78W
07/24/2015  M1.40 INCH       ADAIR              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ALONG HWY 6 WITHIN ABOUT A HALF
            HOUR PERIOD. A FEW SMALL LIMBS DOWN AS WELL WITH THE
            PASSING STORM.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW NEW CAMBRIA        39.79N 92.76W
07/24/2015                   MACON              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF A 6-8 INCH TREE DOWN ON BADGER STREET IN NEW
            CAMBRIA

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
352 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW NEW CAMBRIA        39.79N 92.76W
07/24/2015                   MACON              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A 5TH WHEEL CAMPER WAS BLOWN OVER AT THE SAME LOCATION ON
            BADGER STREET AS THE PREVIOUS REPORT.

&&

CDB