Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Kansas City, MO

810 
WWUS53 KEAX 160407
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1107 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

MOC003-087-147-160415-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-150716T0415Z/
ANDREW MO-NODAWAY MO-HOLT MO-
1107 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ANDREW...SOUTHWESTERN NODAWAY AND NORTHEASTERN HOLT
COUNTIES...

AT 1107 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MAITLAND...OR
9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAITLAND...BOLCKOW AND GRAHAM. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 4010 9507 4021 9517 4031 9496 4011 9477
TIME...MOT...LOC 0407Z 235DEG 15KT 4022 9495 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LG

731 
WWUS53 KEAX 160414
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1114 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

MOC003-087-147-160424-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-150716T0415Z/
ANDREW MO-NODAWAY MO-HOLT MO-
1114 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ANDREW...
SOUTHWESTERN NODAWAY AND NORTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
1115 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4010 9507 4021 9517 4031 9496 4011 9477
TIME...MOT...LOC 0412Z 235DEG 15KT 4022 9495 

$$

LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
642 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

This evening - Tonight:

The main concern in the short term is the potential for severe
weather this evening in which large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes will be possible mainly west of I-35. However, this
afternoon's showers and thunderstorms may limit that potential.
Models have not been handling the evolving situation well this
afternoon and currently would suggest temperatures in the upper 80s
to mid 90s across western Missouri and eastern Kansas. Temperatures
however remain in the the upper 70s and lower 80s which has limited
instability. That being said, 40-50kts of 0-6KM shear is analyzed
across extreme northwestern Missouri however instability is
significantly lower than models suggest but still a modest 1000-
1500J/Kg of MLCAPE. Further south across southeast Kansas a cu deck
has developed in an area of extreme instability but weak shear.
these will be the two areas to monitor for storm development.
However, it is the northern area that will have the potential for
severe storms. If storms do develop it will occur on the backside of
current storms across north central Kansas where temperatures have
warmed into the lower 90s and dewpoints have risen under WAA. If
these thunderstorms do develop with the good shear over those areas,
it is possible for supercells to develop and move into northwestern
Missouri. It is these storms that would be capable of damaging winds
large hail and possibly a tornado.

Otherwise, later tonight, a wave is expected to eject out the
western Plains and move into the area as a 40-50KT LLJ develops and
noses into southeastern Nebraska/southwest Iowa. An overnight MCS is
expected to develop mainly north of the area however, the southern
periphery f that complex will bring showers and thunderstorms to
northern Missouri.

Tomorrow through Tomorrow night:

Once the overnight MCS clears the area tomorrow morning,
temperatures are expected to warm quickly into the upper 80s to mid
90s. This will lead to strong instability during the day tomorrow.
This will allow for the possibility of thunderstorm development on
any outflow that could trigger storm. Shear is expected to be weak
so storms main be more pulse-like in nature. However, isolated
severe storms may be possible with damaging winds and large hail.
Thursday night a LLJ is again expected to develop and models suggest
the possibility of additional thunderstorm development as an upper
level shortwave traverses the area.

Friday through Saturday:

This period should remain relatively dry as the upper level ridge
builds north into the area and the storm track should shift north of
the area. The best chance for thunderstorm activity would be extreme
northern Missouri. Also, with the ridge building across the area,
highs should warm into the low to perhaps mid 90s.

Sunday - Wednesday:

An upper trough will dig southward into the Plains and Upper Midwest
pushing a cold front into the area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop along this front during the day. This
front is expected to be slow mover and not exit the area until
Monday morning. Conditions look mainly dry beyond Monday morning as
an upper level ridge looks to build back over the area by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

VFR conditions currently prevail at the terminals will persist into
the evening hours, but may be impacted by storms currently
developing in eastern Kansas later tonight. Have VCTS in for the
hours where convection might affect the terminals, but will have to
watch closely in case storms move directly towards them. Stormy
activity should move north late tonight as the low level jet kicks
in. Otherwise, expect winds to get a bit gusty Thursday afternoon
with boundary layer mixing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
503 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
503 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
 ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND
 DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY.

 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
 INDEX VALUES REACHING IN THE UPPER 90 TO LOWER 100 DEGREE RANGE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
 HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90 TO LOWER 100 DEGREE RANGE
 MOST AFTERNOONS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1001 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

MOZ001-011-160345-
ATCHISON MO-HOLT MO-
1001 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ATCHISON AND
NORTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1000 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF CRAIG...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF FALLS CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUND CITY...CRAIG...BIG LAKE...BIGELOW...CORNING AND INDIAN CAVE
STATE PARK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 80 AND 102.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4037 9529 4006 9520 4005 9542 4006 9542
      4007 9539 4010 9540 4012 9539 4014 9543
      4017 9545 4018 9548 4024 9547 4025 9549
      4026 9555 4027 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 247DEG 14KT 4017 9551

PMM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1036 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

MOZ002-011-012-160415-
NODAWAY MO-ANDREW MO-HOLT MO-
1036 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ANDREW...
SOUTHWESTERN NODAWAY AND NORTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM
CDT...

AT 1035 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MAITLAND...OR 8 MILES EAST OF MOUND CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAITLAND...BOLCKOW AND GRAHAM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 75 AND 77.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4003 9515 4019 9525 4032 9498 4012 9477
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 235DEG 16KT 4015 9508

PMM