Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Kansas City, MO

July 13, 2015Lafayette County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 2015, 6:29 PM CDT for Lafayette County, Missouri. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 13, 2015, 6:29 PM CDT (23:29 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2015, 7:03 PM CDT
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Lafayette County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 13, 6:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2018 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -385 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1616 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 114 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 6:24 PM CDT, 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 6:24 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

Well the uncertainty with whether or not storms would develop over
western MO/eastern KS has been answered. As a result, have increased
PoPs from about the Missouri river southward. Severe storms are
likely given the extreme instabiliity and ~40kts of deep layer shear.
The biggest hazard is going to be from damaging winds as there is
very large downdraft CAPE values. Large hail will also be possible
with the strongest updrafts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

A surface front extends from north central missouri to north central
Kansas. Convection has developed behind the front in southeastern
Nebraska and northwestern Missouri. Instability is extreme and shear
is supportive of organized storms. However, storms have been
struggling to really intensify beyond just pulsey multicell type
updrafts. Given the extreme instability and supportive shear, storms
could become severe at any time as the front slowly slides
southward. With large downdraft CAPE values, damaging winds would be
the biggest threat, but the extreme CAPE and healthy shear suggest
hail would also be possible. But very warm temperatures may inhibit
the maximum size a bit. As shear increase to the east, around the
Kirksville area, the ongoing storms will need to watched closely to
see if the organize into a more widespread severe event.

While there is some uncertainty with how convection and its cloud
cover will evolve over the next 24 hours, there is enough confidence
at this point to forecast heat index values back in the 100 to 105
degree range. This is mainly for along and south of the missouri
river. So will continue the heat advisory for along and south of the
Missouri River through Tuesdays evening. Since heat indices are not
expected to be as hot as Monday, this downgrades the heat warning.
Confidence isn't high enough at this point to go with anything
beyond tomorrow.

The overall pattern doesn't change much through the remainder of the
forecast. A flattening of the ridge Wednesday into Thursday suggest
a bit cooler temperatures and an increased chance for convection to
work into the forecast area. By the end of the week, the ridge
restrengthens and highs climb back into the mid to potentially upper
90s, as opposed to the lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

Storms have developed south of KMCI and KMKC so it's likely those
terminals will be spared any thunderstorms impacting their
operations. KIXD may see a storm through 02Z so have included mention
for that site. Otherwise, VFR conditions with light winds are
expected across the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ032-033-039-040-045-
     046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>024-028>031-037-038-043-044-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028>031-037-038-043-
     044-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ025.

&&

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 13, 5:30 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 13, 5:32 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 13, 5:47 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 13, 5:48 PM CDT, 41 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 13, 6:22 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
622 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAK GROVE               39.01N 94.13W
07/13/2015                   JACKSON            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LOST WHEN STORM WENT THROUGH.

&&

CUTTER

Local storm report, Jul 13, 6:26 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             5 SE WELLINGTON         39.08N 93.92W
07/13/2015  E1.00 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MO   PUBLIC

&&

JWELSH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 12:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Mercer	36 min
Jul 13, 2:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Nodaway	23 min
Jul 13, 2:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Nodaway	34 min
Jul 13, 3:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Gentry, Harrison, Nodaway, Worth	37 min
Jul 13, 3:33 PM CDT	Heat Advisory	EAX	Bates, Carroll, Cass, Clay, Henry, Jackson and 4 more	29 hr
Jul 13, 3:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Grundy, Harrison, Mercer	39 min
Jul 13, 4:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Grundy, Mercer, Putnam, Sullivan	47 min
Jul 13, 4:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Adair, Putnam, Schuyler, Sullivan	46 min
Jul 13, 5:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Jackson	27 min
Jul 13, 6:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Jackson, Lafayette	26 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.