Heat Advisory 4, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

A surface front extends from north central missouri to north central
Kansas. Convection has developed behind the front in southeastern
Nebraska and northwestern Missouri. Instability is extreme and shear
is supportive of organized storms. However, storms have been
struggling to really intensify beyond just pulsey multicell type
updrafts. Given the extreme instability and supportive shear, storms
could become severe at any time as the front slowly slides
southward. With large downdraft CAPE values, damaging winds would be
the biggest threat, but the extreme CAPE and healthy shear suggest
hail would also be possible. But very warm temperatures may inhibit
the maximum size a bit. As shear increase to the east, around the
Kirksville area, the ongoing storms will need to watched closely to
see if the organize into a more widespread severe event.

While there is some uncertainty with how convection and its cloud
cover will evolve over the next 24 hours, there is enough confidence
at this point to forecast heat index values back in the 100 to 105
degree range. This is mainly for along and south of the missouri
river. So will continue the heat advisory for along and south of the
Missouri River through Tuesdays evening. Since heat indices are not
expected to be as hot as Monday, this downgrades the heat warning.
Confidence isn't high enough at this point to go with anything
beyond tomorrow.

The overall pattern doesn't change much through the remainder of the
forecast. A flattening of the ridge Wednesday into Thursday suggest
a bit cooler temperatures and an increased chance for convection to
work into the forecast area. By the end of the week, the ridge
restrengthens and highs climb back into the mid to potentially upper
90s, as opposed to the lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

VFR conditions will persist through most of the forecast period.
Afternoon convection is possible as a frontal boundary sinks south
through the afternoon hours. Given the uncertainty of afternoon
development, have gone with vcts for the time being. Otherwise,
winds will vary as the boundary continues to push south overnight,
with continued VFR conditions through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
     KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ032-033-039-040-045-
     046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>024-028>031-037-038-043-044-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ028>031-037-038-043-044-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ025.

&&

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1209 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

MOZ006-007-131745-
PUTNAM MO-MERCER MO-
1209 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MERCER AND WESTERN PUTNAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1208 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR PRINCETON...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEON...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRINCETON...MERCER...LUCERNE...POWERSVILLE AND SOUTH LINEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4039 9324 4038 9327 4038 9337 4035 9337
      4033 9343 4038 9374 4058 9366 4058 9322
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 279DEG 45KT 4045 9358

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
237 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

MOZ002-132000-
NODAWAY MO-
237 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NODAWAY COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

AT 236 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BURLINGTON JUNCTION...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARYVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARYVILLE...BURLINGTON JUNCTION...HOPKINS...CLEARMONT...ELMO...
PICKERING AND QUITMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 9517 4054 9518 4057 9476 4036 9477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 267DEG 31KT 4046 9508

BLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PICKERING               40.45N 94.84W
07/13/2015                   NODAWAY            MO   PUBLIC

            POWERLINE DOWN

&&

MJ