River Flood Warning 368, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
536 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

The closed low, which was the catalyst for what was record daily
rainfall for many areas across the CWA yesterday, is evident on
water vapor imagery this morning across eastern Kansas. This upper
low will move ENE through the CWA this morning. Light rain
associated with this system will continue to effect the area through
early afternoon. Light rain and clouds will keep conditions much
cooler then the past few days with highs in the 40s. As the
departing upper level system pushes into the Great Lakes region this
afternoon we will turn our attention to another trough digging into
the Great Basin. Although this feature will not be a major player in
producing precipitation across our area it will be the main feature
that drives temperatures through most of the week. For example, in
response to that system digging into the Great Basin, weak upper
level ridging will develop out ahead of it. This upper ridging will
move into the region on Tuesday as the upper trough, now closing an
upper level low in the base of the trough, moves into the Central
Plains. This will also force a associated surface front into the
central Plains. WAA out ahead of the surface front acting in tangent
with the shortwave ridging will allow temperatures to warm into the
upper 40s to the north and the lower 60s to the south. On Wednesday,
the upper level low will move into the Upper Midwest and force the
cold front through the area early in the day. This will again cool
temperatures off dropping highs into the upper 30s to upper 40s.
There is also a chance for some very light precipitation across the
northern and eastern CWA as the front move through late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning.

The upper level low across the Upper Midwest will then remain nearly
stationary across that region as it interacts with and eventually
combines with another upper level low dropping out of the Canadian
Rockies. This will keep much of the central US under broad troughing
and keep temperatures cool. And, by cool, that means near seasonal
normals with highs generally in the mid 30s to lower 40s Thursday
and Friday. Saturday will be a transitional day as the troughing
that resided across the central US shift northeastward. This will
allow for northwest flow across the area to relax and temperatures
may rebound a few degrees. However, By Sunday, weak ridging moves
into the region and highs will return to well above normal with
highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

A large expanse of high IFR/low MVFR exists across ern KS and will
overspread the terminals right around the valid TAF time. MVFR cigs
will be persistent thru the morning and afternoon hours altho cigs
are expected to lift abv 2kft btn 19Z-21Z. High MVFR conds are then
expected to prevail thru tonight with cigs lifting to 5kft around
06Z. Winds are out of SW this morning around 10kts but will veer to
the west by mid-morning around 15kts with gusts to 25kts. Gusty winds
will cont thru the afternoon before wkng to around 10kts this evening
while contg to veer to the WNW. Around midnight winds will become lgt
and vrb as high pressure begins to move into the region.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
504 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
504 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO