River Flood Warning 114, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1034 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

Thick clouds have kept the airmass from becoming too unstable this
morning which is keeping the threat for strong storms confined to
isolated wind gusts. However, storms are starting to become oriented
east-west along a weak elevated boundary which is parallel to storm
motion. This may set up a corridor of training storms with locally heavy
rain from north of Topeka into the Leavenworth and KC Northland areas
through early afternoon, especially with these storms regenerating
back across north central KS. Storms have been slow to spread south,
but they may begin to propagate more southward into more of the KC
metro by afternoon as stable air could push the boundary southward a
bit. Any storms that make it south of I-70 and west of I-49 could
become strong as the airmass is more unstable over these areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

A weak convective complex has formed over SC Nebraska into far NW
Missouri, and has gradually started to slide south with time. Unlike
last night this complex has a little better environment with which
to sustain itself, as MLCAPE values are approaching 1000 J/kg ahead
of the complex and effective bulk shear values are approaching 25 to
35 knots. Both parameters are an improvement over what yesterday
morning's complex had. Also according to SPC Mesoanalysis PWAT
values are approaching 1.8 inches where the storms are located, and
only fall off marginally with southward extent, as a good portion of
eastern Kansas and western Missouri contain 1.6 to 1.7 inches of
precipitable water. This will allow this complex to have very
efficient rain rates, as it eventually slides into the forecast
area. Short range models have been pretty consistent with this
complex eventually sliding south/southeast through western Missouri.
Should this complex slide south as the short-term hi-res models
suggest it could bring another round of morning and early afternoon
thunderstorms to the area, which would exacerbate the already
ongoing flooding problems across the area. Tough to say exactly how
much rain each area will receive, but considering the generally slow
motion of this complex along with a fairly efficient rain-making
ability, it's conceivable that some areas could see another 1 to
several inches of rain through the morning hours. As a result of
this concern, a flash flood watch continue for the area through 10
am.

This afternoon's chances for severe convection will depend much on
how this complex moves through the area. If the complex drops south
as the models suggest it's conceivable that there could be enough
lingering cloud cover to prevent much in the way of
afternoon/evening destabilization. Should the complex take on more
of an easterly component or fizzle out early there could be enough
of a clearing period to get some destabilization. Confluence along a
mesoscale/synoptic boundary which will likely run through northern
Kansas and/or southern Nebraska will be maximized likely to the west
of the forecast area, and this max confluence will be the best focus
for afternoon convection. Across far eastern Kansas and western
Missouri, depending on how the boundary sets up there will not be
quite a good of a chance to get a storm going along the weaker
confluence, but NAM indicates a relatively uncapped environment, so
it may not take much to get a storm going this afternoon. Should a
surface based storm get going this afternoon there will be plenty of
instability, on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg of ML CAPE as well as
30 to 40 kts of deep shear. This would be ample for supercellular
activity, with all modes of severe weather possible, again, mainly
west of I-29 and north of HWY 36. As the afternoon/evening
convection grows upscale into a complex, another round of heavy rain
is possible overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.

Friday convection again is dependent on how Thursday night evolves,
but for now models want to move the mid level ridge more centered
over the forecast area, which would serve as a bit of a dampener to
mid day convection, however, with some mid level flow over the apex
of the ridge, it's possible that once again, overnight MCS
development will roll through the area, bringing yet more heavy
rain.

Saturday then sees the boundary likely move north of the forecast
area, which should take the best chances of severe weather with it.
MCS formation from Saturday afternoon/evening thunderstorms could
conceivably move over the area, but given the likely initiation as
well as the somewhat flattened mid level ridge it's more likely that
the complex(es) will ride north of at least Interstate 70, if not
north of Missouri all together.

The rain chances continue through the weekend and into next week as
the mid level pattern transitions into more of a eastern trough
scenario with a sagging boundary. Should the boundary sag across the
area the generally zonal flow could result in one or several days of
training cells, so will continue to watch for more days of
potentially heavy rain through the mid range and extended forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

Same as yesterday, early morning thunderstorms affecting the
terminals through the mid morning hours. Severe weather isn't
anticipated, but periods of heavy rain are possible probably through
the early afternoon. There could be a lull in the action through the
afternoon before another round of thunderstorms form late this
evening and move into the area. Backed off a touch on the timing of
these storms, as initiation is most likely going to occur in central
and northern Kansas then move in later tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ025-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044.

&&

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
559 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
559 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWEST
 AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS
 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EARLIER THIS
 MORNING AND SATURATED SOILS...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
 CONCERN. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL
 ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
 WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
 NIGHT. WHILE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE PRIMARY
 THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
 FLOODING.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
822 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
824 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ST. JOSEPH              39.77N 94.85W
06/04/2015                   BUCHANAN           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            THREE FEET OF WATER REPORTED OVER HIGHWAY 59 NEAR THE
            MISSOURI RIVER

&&

ADOLPHSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
919 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSZ025-102-041445-
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN KS-
919 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DONIPHAN AND NORTHEASTERN
ATCHISON COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 917 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DENTON...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TROY...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TROY...FANNING...BENDENA AND DONIPHAN.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3988 9532 3982 9500 3966 9503 3964 9505
      3962 9506 3960 9505 3966 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 289DEG 17KT 3973 9523

AEP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1022 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

MOZ020-028-041545-
BUCHANAN MO-PLATTE MO-
1022 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PLATTE AND SOUTHERN
BUCHANAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM CDT...

AT 1020 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELWOOD TO 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WESTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN BUCHANAN COUNTY.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 24 AND 44.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3973 9493 3973 9461 3954 9460 3941 9460
      3944 9489 3944 9498 3945 9499 3946 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 1522Z 270DEG 23KT 3974 9487 3949 9502

AEP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1059 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 AM     HAIL             2 N KANSAS CITY INTL AR 39.33N 94.72W
06/04/2015  E0.88 INCH       PLATTE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40 MPH WIND

&&

AB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1100 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

MOZ021-028-029-041645-
CLAY MO-CLINTON MO-PLATTE MO-
1100 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PLATTE...SOUTHERN CLINTON
AND NORTHERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

AT 1057 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PLATTE CITY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SMITHVILLE...KEARNEY...LATHROP...FERRELVIEW...EDGERTON...TRIMBLE...
  HOLT...HOOVER AND RIDGELY.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 40.
  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 28 TO 35.
  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 18.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3957 9421 3937 9421 3929 9477 3949 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 255DEG 17KT 3936 9470

AEP