Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Kansas City, MO

384 
WWUS53 KEAX 041023
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
523 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSC005-043-041033-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-150604T1030Z/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN KS-
523 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN DONIPHAN AND
NORTHWESTERN ATCHISON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3966 9556 3966 9534 3975 9534 3976 9521
      3959 9522 3960 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 1023Z 262DEG 27KT 3968 9523

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

A weak convective complex has formed over SC Nebraska into far NW
Missouri, and has gradually started to slide south with time. Unlike
last night this complex has a little better environment with which
to sustain itself, as MLCAPE values are approaching 1000 J/kg ahead
of the complex and effective bulk shear values are approaching 25 to
35 knots. Both parameters are an improvement over what yesterday
morning's complex had. Also according to SPC Mesoanalysis PWAT
values are approaching 1.8 inches where the storms are located, and
only fall off marginally with southward extent, as a good portion of
eastern Kansas and western Missouri contain 1.6 to 1.7 inches of
precipitable water. This will allow this complex to have very
efficient rain rates, as it eventually slides into the forecast
area. Short range models have been pretty consistent with this
complex eventually sliding south/southeast through western Missouri.
Should this complex slide south as the short-term hi-res models
suggest it could bring another round of morning and early afternoon
thunderstorms to the area, which would exacerbate the already
ongoing flooding problems across the area. Tough to say exactly how
much rain each area will receive, but considering the generally slow
motion of this complex along with a fairly efficient rain-making
ability, it's conceivable that some areas could see another 1 to
several inches of rain through the morning hours. As a result of
this concern, a flash flood watch continue for the area through 10
am.

This afternoon's chances for severe convection will depend much on
how this complex moves through the area. If the complex drops south
as the models suggest it's conceivable that there could be enough
lingering cloud cover to prevent much in the way of
afternoon/evening destabilization. Should the complex take on more
of an easterly component or fizzle out early there could be enough
of a clearing period to get some destabilization. Confluence along a
mesoscale/synoptic boundary which will likely run through northern
Kansas and/or southern Nebraska will be maximized likely to the west
of the forecast area, and this max confluence will be the best focus
for afternoon convection. Across far eastern Kansas and western
Missouri, depending on how the boundary sets up there will not be
quite a good of a chance to get a storm going along the weaker
confluence, but NAM indicates a relatively uncapped environment, so
it may not take much to get a storm going this afternoon. Should a
surface based storm get going this afternoon there will be plenty of
instability, on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg of ML CAPE as well as
30 to 40 kts of deep shear. This would be ample for supercellular
activity, with all modes of severe weather possible, again, mainly
west of I-29 and north of HWY 36. As the afternoon/evening
convection grows upscale into a complex, another round of heavy rain
is possible overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.

Friday convection again is dependent on how Thursday night evolves,
but for now models want to move the mid level ridge more centered
over the forecast area, which would serve as a bit of a dampener to
mid day convection, however, with some mid level flow over the apex
of the ridge, it's possible that once again, overnight MCS
development will roll through the area, bringing yet more heavy
rain.

Saturday then sees the boundary likely move north of the forecast
area, which should take the best chances of severe weather with it.
MCS formation from Saturday afternoon/evening thunderstorms could
conceivably move over the area, but given the likely initiation as
well as the somewhat flattened mid level ridge it's more likely that
the complex(es) will ride north of at least Interstate 70, if not
north of Missouri all together.

The rain chances continue through the weekend and into next week as
the mid level pattern transitions into more of a eastern trough
scenario with a sagging boundary. Should the boundary sag across the
area the generally zonal flow could result in one or several days of
training cells, so will continue to watch for more days of
potentially heavy rain through the mid range and extended forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

Radar and satellite loops indicate the expected convective complex
is developing further north across south central and southeast NE and
in line with the northern trend of the latest HRRR model run. The
convection will likely be focused over northwest MO/far northeast KS
overnight but do expect it to propagate southeast during the pre-dawn
hours as the cold pool takes over.

With that in mind KSTJ can expect higher rain chances as well as
earlier arrival time. Confidence lowers farther south but do expect
convection to eventually arrive at the Kansas City area terminals
with lowest confidence at KIXD, the southernmost TAF site. Prevailing
ceilings will generally be VFR although as occasional MVFR
visibilities and ceilings can be expected with the stronger storms,
especially at KSTJ. Should see a lull in activity during the
afternoon. Low confidence on convective activity Thursday evening as
it will highly dependent on where the boundaries establish
themselves from the morning convection.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044.

&&

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
716 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-050030-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
716 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWEST
 AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS
 LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING AND
 SATURATED SOILS...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A CONCERN.
 A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE
 POSSIBLE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
 BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
 WHILE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE PRIMARY THREAT
 WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF FLOODING.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

MOZ014-040845-
DAVIESS MO-
314 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DAVIESS COUNTY UNTIL 345
AM CDT...

AT 313 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF MAYSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WINSTON AND ALTAMONT.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 62 AND 71.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3987 9402 3986 9420 3994 9420 4000 9404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0814Z 251DEG 14KT 3991 9418

CUTTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

MOZ013-014-040915-
DAVIESS MO-DE KALB MO-
344 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DEKALB AND WESTERN
DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 342 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAYSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SANTA ROSA.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4004 9419 3989 9412 3988 9432 3995 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0844Z 247DEG 12KT 3994 9426

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