Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Kansas City, MO

098 
WGUS73 KEAX 152255
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
555 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

MOC025-033-047-049-061-079-117-177-160330-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-150616T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CALDWELL MO-CARROLL MO-CLAY MO-CLINTON MO-DAVIESS MO-GRUNDY MO-
LIVINGSTON MO-RAY MO-
555 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN RAY...
NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...SOUTHERN GRUNDY...SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS...
SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON...EASTERN CLAY...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND
CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 553 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED HEAVY RAIN 
HAD CAUSED FLOODING IN VARIOS PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTONG COUNTY AS WELL 
AS IN CHILLICOTHDE. RADAR ESTIMATED A LARGE AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCH 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURED IN THE WARNED AREA AND RAIN CONTINUES TO 
FALL.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH 
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING 
INCLUDE...CHILLICOTHE...EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...LAWSON...BRAYMER... 
BRECKENRIDGE...COWGILL...CRYSTAL LAKES...EXCELSIOR ESTATES... 
HOLT...KINGSTON...MISSOURI CITY...POLO...UTICA AND WOODS HEIGHTS.


THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 29 AND 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES... AS WELL
AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

&&

LAT...LON 4003 9338 3986 9340 3954 9374 3922 9424
      3924 9425 3923 9430 3917 9435 3918 9435
      3945 9436 3970 9402 3995 9383

$$

AB

871 
WGUS73 KEAX 152338
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

MOC047-049-152351-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-150616T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CLAY MO-CLINTON MO-
638 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
CLINTON AND EASTERN CLAY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3986 9340 3954 9374 3946 9386 3946 9420
      3956 9421 3970 9402 3995 9383 4003 9338

$$

MOC025-033-061-079-117-177-160330-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-150616T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CALDWELL MO-CARROLL MO-DAVIESS MO-GRUNDY MO-LIVINGSTON MO-RAY MO-
638 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN RAY...
NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...SOUTHERN GRUNDY...SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS...
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 636 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT FLASH 
FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN LIVINGSTON COUNTY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FELL 
FROM ELMIRA IN RAY COUNTY TO NEAR LAREDO IN GRUNDY COUNTY. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...CHILLICOTHE...
BRAYMER...BRECKENRIDGE...COWGILL...KINGSTON...POLO AND UTICA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES... AS WELL
AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3986 9340 3954 9374 3946 9386 3946 9420
      3956 9421 3970 9402 3995 9383 4003 9338

$$

AB

080 
WGUS73 KEAX 160325
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1025 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

MOC025-033-061-079-117-177-160341-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-150616T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CALDWELL MO-CARROLL MO-DAVIESS MO-GRUNDY MO-LIVINGSTON MO-RAY MO-
1025 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN RAY...
NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...SOUTHERN GRUNDY...SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS...
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND CALDWELL COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE 
AT 1030 PM CDT.

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3986 9340 3954 9374 3946 9386 3946 9420
      3956 9421 3970 9402 3995 9383 4003 9338

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

Weak upper level shortwave combined with surface boundary and
moderate diurnal heating have ignited shower and thunderstorm
activity across the area this afternoon. Precipitable water values
approaching 2 inches have provided for efficient rainfall producing
storms. Not expecting widespread heavy rains however have already
had some localized rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour and isolated flooding
reported. A decrease in intensity and coverage should occur closer to
sunset.

Surface boundary sagging into northwest Missouri is forecast to move
through much of the area tonight before stalling from eastern
Missouri southwest into far southeast Kansas. Other than departing
upper level shortwave not a tremendous amount of support aloft to
keep showers and thunderstorms going overnight.  Nonetheless with
copious amounts of low level moisture still in place and boundary in
the area is enough to keep PoPs going for tonight.

Similar story for the day Tuesday as surface boundary stalls in the
southern part of the forecast area and begins to work back north late
in the day. Still plenty of low level moisture to work and any
surface heating at all should allow scattered convection to once
again develop.

Still difficult to draw any conclusions for timing and location of
remnant moisture from tropical system later in the week. At this
time it appears most likely scenario would be for heavier rains to be
south of the forecast area however model inconsistencies leave some
question marks and will need to keep an eye on how this system progresses.

Afternoon high temperatures should be generally in the low to middle
80s for most areas through this week. Low temperatures are expected
to be generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

An abundance of moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere
combined with a frontal boundary moving into northwest Missouri will
keep clouds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through tomorrow morning. Have seen some diurnal
improvements in the ceilings and visibilities this morning however
with moisture in place see no reason MVFR and IFR conditions will not
return tonight. Confidence not high on placement and timing for
convection near the TAF sites so will continue with VCTS into the early
evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Mitchell
DISCUSSION...Mitchell
AVIATION...Mitchell

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
514 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
514 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THE
 THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
 WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY LATER IN THE WEEK.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO