Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Quad Cities, IA

088 
WWUS53 KDVN 230051
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
751 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

ILC067-MOC045-199-230115-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-150623T0115Z/
HANCOCK IL-SCOTLAND MO-CLARK MO-
751 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK...EASTERN SCOTLAND AND CLARK COUNTIES...

AT 751 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ST. FRANCISVILLE TO NEAR SOUTH GORIN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KAHOKA...WARSAW...WAYLAND...WYACONDA...LURAY...SOUTH GORIN...
GRANGER...WINCHESTER...REVERE...ARBELA...AZEN...CHAMBERSBURG...
ANSON...MEDILL...ST. PATRICK...TIOGA...GREGORY LANDING...NEEPER...
ASHTON AND ANTIOCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
THE QUAD CITIES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4020 9150 4025 9150 4025 9152 4026 9195
      4030 9195 4030 9200 4060 9216 4059 9174
      4020 9131
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 283DEG 38KT 4050 9161 4031 9198 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

05/87

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
645 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER MCS WAS ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-890 CORRIDOR OVER
NW IL INTO EASTERN IA...SEPARATING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 TO THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER TO MID 80S WERE FOUND TO
THE SOUTH. DEEP MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR WAS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WAS LEADING TO SBCAPE VALUES
IN THE 4500 TO NEAR 6000 J/KG ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SO
FAR THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY A STRONG TORNADIC
SUPERCELL TRACKING W AND SW OF OTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS WITH MORE DISORGANIZED STORMS ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FROM
CLINTON THROUGH IOWA CITY TO OTTUMWA. WILL BE MOST CLOSELY
WATCHING STORMS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED EAST TO WEST
BOUNDARY...AND THE CLUSTER IN THE FAR SW...THAT WILL HAVE THE MOST
LIKELIHOOD TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES UNTIL 03Z.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT AT 00Z ROUGHLY BISECTED IA FROM NE TO SW...AND
WILL END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING AND THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

BOW ECHO THAT PRODUCED 70 TO 90 MPH DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING HAS LEFT A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF I-80. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG SHEAR HAD DEVELOPED
AN ISOLATED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE CEDAR RAPIDS AREA...WITH HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
TO FESTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...STRONG COLD FRONT IN NW
IA WILL BE PUSHING INTO OUR FAR NW CWA BY EVENING. DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE 40S WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. CAPES WILL BUILD
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED.
THE HRRR DEVELOPS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NEAR HIGHWAY 30 BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST AND FORMING INTO ANOTHER
BOW ECHO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
TRANSITIONING TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OF 70+ MPH AS IT PUSHES
INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. TO SAY THE LEAST THIS IS
ANOTHER DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD BE PRETTY
MUCH OVER WITH IN THE DVN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.

3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S IN RAIN AREAS IN OUR
NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 70S. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS INDICATED SBCAPES OF 6000 J/KG IN NW MO WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER EASTERN IA (BEWARE OF THE GRADIENT). EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WAS 70 KNOTS...HELICITY 300 M2/S2 WITH 1 KM EHI OF 5. STRONG
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS EVIDENT ALONG WITH PWAT'S OF NEARLY
2 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING THEN BRIEFLY QUIET
ON TUESDAY.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE DETAILS WERE NOTED IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION
ABOVE BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
END BY 10 OR 11 PM. THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...USHERING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AROUND 60 ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 TO THE UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY
WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THEN COOLER BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. ON
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE DVN WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING WELL INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY OUR FAR SOUTH STILL HAVING A
CHANCE OF STORMS. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH DRY
WEATHER BY FRIDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AND MAINLY DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ESPECIALLY THE MLI AND BRL TERMINALS UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN CHANGE TO THE NW AND
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLEARING SKIES. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1204 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-231400-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1204 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA UNDER AN
ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS LIKELY BECOMING SEVERE...MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 10 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY RISK INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. HOWEVER...BY EVENING THE PRIMARY RISK WILL
BECOME DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. AT
THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 2 INCHES OR MORE. THE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST RISK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
712 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNW MORRISON          41.89N 90.01W
06/22/2015  E75 MPH          WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BLEW DOORS OPEN, DOWN BRANCHES. TIME ESTIMATED

&&

KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
717 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             E STERLING              41.80N 89.69W
06/22/2015  M0.75 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED NEAR APPLEBEES ON RT 2.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
719 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     TORNADO          NW EDGINGTON            41.38N 90.77W
06/22/2015                   ROCK ISLAND        IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND MOVING EAST WITH DEBRIS.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
732 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW MORRISON          41.81N 89.98W
06/22/2015  M1.10 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STILL RAINING

&&

KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
738 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     TSTM WND GST     KILWINNING              40.51N 92.34W
06/22/2015  E70.00 MPH       SCOTLAND           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0732 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     N ARBELA                40.46N 92.02W
06/22/2015                   SCOTLAND           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GROSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
742 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ098-099-ILZ034-MOZ009-010-230330-
VAN BUREN-LEE-HANCOCK-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON...CARTHAGE...
MEMPHIS...KAHOKA
742 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS INDICATING THAT VERY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH 930 PM CDT. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
HAD ALREADY FALLEN DURING THE PAST HOUR AND A HALF ACROSS WESTERN
VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWESTERN SCOTLAND
COUNTY IN MISSOURI. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE AFFECTED AREAS THROUGH 930 PM CDT. THIS
KIND OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...SWOLLEN
DRAINAGE DITCHES AND STREAMS TO BECOME BANKFULL. PEOPLE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG THE FABIUS...WYACONDA...AND BIG INDIAN CREEKS...
AS WELL AS THE FOX RIVER WILL WANT TO MONITOR FOR RISING WATER
LEVELS.

IF YOU OBSERVER RISING WATER...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.  STAY AWAY
OR BE SWEPT AWAY. STREAM BANKS AND CULVERTS CAN BECOME UNSTABLE
AND UNSAFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

12