Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
643 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

FEW UPDATES TO FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AS NORTHERN
CWA MAY GET A GLANCING PASS BY THE SEVERE MCS TO OUR NORTH. THINK
THAT THE STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING. AN ISOLATED 50 MPH GUST AND
EVEN A SEVERE GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WAA AS ADVANCED THROUGH
THE CWA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

WARM ADVECTION WING IN FULL MOTION THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE SURGES
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING AND MOVING
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A RATHER STICKY NIGHT FOR US AS SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THIS WING OF WAA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS FAR NW ZONES THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SURGING NORTH. CURRENT PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT THE NOTION
OF THIS AS WELL. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MCS TO OUR NORTH THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. CONCERNS
REMAIN ABOUT CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND OVERALL COVERAGE ONCE
STORMS INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OR
JUST CLIP FAR NORTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA TODAY. THIS MEANS THAT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME OFBS. THESE
OFBS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS POTENTIAL
INITIATION POINTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA.
THESE SPECIFICS WILL BECOME CLEARER AFTER THE MORNINGS CONVECTION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.  STRONG H7 CAPPING IS IN PLACE FROM THE SW TO THE NE. ALL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL BREAK THIS CAP AS IT
APPROACHES. WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS US...EXPECT
VERY LARGE CAPE...AOA 4000 J/KG...BELIEVE THAT THE NAM IS
OVERDOING THE VALUES. REGARDLESS ONCE THIS CAP BREAKS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAST. INITIAL STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL....DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO WI WHERE PROXIMITY TO OFBS AND THE
WARM FRONT COULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY GROW INTO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREATS.

MY CURRENT THINKING IS THIS...WE WILL WATCH A CU FIELD PERCOLATE
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN AROUND 00Z
AND EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR AROUND THE COLD
FRONT. I THINK THAT THE CELLS WILL BE ISOLATED AT FIRST AND MAY
PERSIST THAT WAY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR
VECTOR NOWHERE NEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...STORMS WILL
QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE ONCE COVERAGE INCREASES.

PWATS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...I
THINK ANY FLOODING WOULD BE TIED DIRECTLY TO TRAINING STORMS. I
DONT SEE THIS AS MUCH OF A THREAT AS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GROWING
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS JUST OUT OR JUST NEAR OUR BORDERS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

TODAY IS A DAY TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND HAVE A PLAN
IN CASE SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH COOLER DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

SIGNIFICANT RAINS MID WEEK AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE
TO BELOW AVERAGE.  MAIN ISSUE IS AGAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AMERICAN SOLUTIONS TOO FAR
NORTH WITH WARM AIR AND PRECIPITATION.  FAST W-NW UPPER FLOW AND
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPAWN LOTS OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD KEEP
AREA CLOUDY AND COOLER THIS PERIOD WITH STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH
LIKE THE HI-RES ECMWF. LOCAL HEAVY RAIN TECHNIQUES AND UPPER FORCING
ALSO SHOW BEST PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE ALL OR OVER MOSTLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION ONCE AGAIN ARE TOO HIGH
ON BL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS) AND RESULTING IN TOO COPIOUS QPF FIELDS
TO ACTUAL.  FAVORED PATTERN ALSO FOR COOL POOLS...OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE NON-HYDROSTATIC AND NOT ABLE TO BE CAPTURED BY
SOLUTIONS.  PREFER A 75/25 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO GFS THROUGH DAY 3
AND THEN WITH NW FLOW A 50/50 BLEND WITH MOSTLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TRENDS CONTINUE FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AND COOLER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TOO AND ALSO DEWPOINTS 2 TO 3 DEGREES AS DISCUSSED LAST
NIGHT COULD BE THE CASE AND THIS IS ON TRACK.  LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO MORE...ESPECIALLY FOR DEWPOINTS NORTHERN
SECTIONS MAKING FOR ANOTHER NICE AND COMFORTABLE SUMMER DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR NE/KS BORDER THAT
WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST INTO FAR SW SECTIONS BY MORNING. LOTS OF
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MOST TO ALL THE REGION BY DAYBREAK.  RATE OF
CLOUDINESS INCREASING OVERNIGHT WILL IMPACT MINS.

IF CLOUDS DELAYED THEN NE 1/3 OR MORE OF AREA MINS MAY NEED TRIMMING
BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY OR 3 DEGREES...INTO THE UPPER 50S.  FAR SW
SECTIONS COULD SEE .5 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS BY MORNING WITH COMPLEX WITH
A LOW POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE SINCE FRONT SHOULD BE TOO OUR
SOUTH...LIMITING INSTABILITY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.  HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL SLATED BE ROUGHLY
ALONG OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.  FORCING AND MOISTURE PROFILES FAVOR
WIDESPREAD .5 TO 1.5+ AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH
LOCALLY 2 TO 3+ POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.  COMBINED WITH TUESDAY
NIGHT EVENT LIKELY WOULD RESULT IN RENEWED HYDRO ISSUES. SEVERE RISK
CONTINUES TO APPEAR WILL BE PROBABLY SOUTH OF IA/MO BORDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE LOWERED AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT AND BASED ON THIS
PATTERN LIKELY NEED LOWERING ANOTHER 5 TO 8+ DEGREES ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 34 DUE TO GOOD EVAPORATIVE COOLING. LOTS OF MID TO UPPER
70S FOR HIGHS APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE...IF NOT PROBABLE FOR LATER
SHIFTS.

FOR THE 24+ HOUR PERIOD...SEE LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY FOR
SOME AREAS...THIS SHOULD PUSH SOME AREA RIVERS ONCE AGAIN NEAR TO
OVER BANKFULL WITH SOME RENEWED FLOODING.  LOWER END FLASH FLOODING
ALSO MAY OCCUR WITH AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES IF FALLS FAST ENOUGH...AS
IN A FEW HOURS OR LESS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASINGLY STRONGER NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST DAYS AND MINS MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IFR AND EVEN MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AM. TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE NORTHERN TAF SITES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SEEMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR WITH
STRONGEST STORMS. ONCE THE STORMS END...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
WINDS OUT OF THE NW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1204 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-231400-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1204 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA UNDER AN
ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS LIKELY BECOMING SEVERE...MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 10 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY RISK INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. HOWEVER...BY EVENING THE PRIMARY RISK WILL
BECOME DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. AT
THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 2 INCHES OR MORE. THE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST RISK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1043 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ042-054-ILZ001-221615-
JO DAVIESS-JACKSON-DUBUQUE-
1043 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT JO DAVIESS...DUBUQUE
AND NORTHERN  JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 1041 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM DICKEYVILLE TO NEAR EPWORTH...AND MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DUBUQUE...GALENA...COUNCIL HILL...
SAGEVILLE... SCHAPVILLE...GALENA TERRITORY...LOCK AND DAM
11...CENTER GROVE...EDMORE AND ROCKDALE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4254 9064 4251 9064 4251 9020 4234 9019
      4237 9097 4259 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1541Z 266DEG 49KT 4262 9061 4239 9094

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1050 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNW ALBURNETT         42.20N 91.65W
06/22/2015  E0.75 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN 0.75-0.99 IN 15 MINUTE DURATION. THE OAT FIELD
            IS COMPLETELY FLATTENED.

0900 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW ALBURNETT         42.20N 91.65W
06/22/2015                   LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES LARGER THAN 2 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER DOWNED BY STRONG WINDS.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1107 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

ILZ009-017-221645-
WHITESIDE-BUREAU-
1107 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BUREAU AND SOUTHEASTERN
WHITESIDE COUNTIES...

AT 1106 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR DEER GROVE...OR 14
MILES SOUTH OF ROCK FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WALNUT...TAMPICO...DEER
GROVE...YORKTOWN... ARLINGTON...NEW BEDFORD...VAN ORIN AND NORMANDY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4149 8985 4167 8986 4166 8963 4159 8963
      4159 8917 4147 8917
TIME...MOT...LOC 1606Z 275DEG 41KT 4157 8975

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ040-051-221715-
BENTON-BUCHANAN-
1149 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BUCHANAN...
AND NORTHERN BENTON COUNTIES...

AT 1148 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MOUNT AUBURN...OR
NEAR VINTON...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VINTON...URBANA...BRANDON...MOUNT AUBURN...VINTON MEMORIAL AIRPORT...
CHENEY...AND SPENCERS GROVE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 40 AND 54.

LAT...LON 4230 9220 4230 9207 4235 9206 4234 9183
      4214 9183 4218 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 285DEG 58KT 4226 9202

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1151 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE WALKER             42.32N 91.74W
06/22/2015  M1.02 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN THE LAST HOUR.

&&

KYLEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1215 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ051-052-221745-
BENTON-LINN-
1215 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LINN AND EAST CENTRAL
BENTON COUNTIES...

AT 1213 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM COGGON TO CENTER POINT TO NEAR VAN HORNE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CEDAR RAPIDS...MARION...HIAWATHA...ATKINS...CENTRAL CITY...
SPRINGVILLE...SHELLSBURG...ALBURNETT...COGGON...AND
PRAIRIEBURG.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 17 AND 39.

LAT...LON 4229 9137 4194 9137 4193 9176 4210 9218
      4229 9158
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 257DEG 80KT 4230 9153 4216 9177 4206 9210

08