Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Quad Cities, IA

774 
WWUS53 KDVN 221339
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
839 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAC019-221400-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-150622T1400Z/
BUCHANAN IA-
839 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
FOR BUCHANAN COUNTY...

AT 839 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MANCHESTER TO MOUNT AUBURN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
65 MPH.

THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.

HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. 
         EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
INDEPENDENCE...JESUP...FAIRBANK...WINTHROP...HAZLETON...QUASQUETON...
LAMONT...BRANDON...ROWLEY...AURORA...TROY MILLS PARK...LIME CREEK
COUNTY...LITTLETON...THREE ELMS COUNTY...INDEPENDENCE AIRPORT...
MONTI...FONTANA COUNTY PARK...WINTHROP GOLF COURSE...CEDAR ROCK STATE
PARK AND WAPSIPINICON GOLF COURSE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 49 AND 54.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 
WIND DAMAGE ACROSS BUCHANAN COUNTY. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY 
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! 
 
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4263 9161 4230 9160 4230 9205 4264 9208
      4264 9192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1339Z 297DEG 58KT 4251 9148 4223 9208 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

05

551 
WWUS53 KDVN 221402
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
902 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAC019-221412-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-150622T1400Z/
BUCHANAN IA-
902 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BUCHANAN COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4263 9161 4230 9160 4230 9205 4264 9208
      4264 9192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1401Z 286DEG 54KT 4251 9148 4223 9208 

$$

05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
643 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

FEW UPDATES TO FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AS NORTHERN
CWA MAY GET A GLANCING PASS BY THE SEVERE MCS TO OUR NORTH. THINK
THAT THE STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING. AN ISOLATED 50 MPH GUST AND
EVEN A SEVERE GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WAA AS ADVANCED THROUGH
THE CWA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

WARM ADVECTION WING IN FULL MOTION THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE SURGES
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING AND MOVING
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A RATHER STICKY NIGHT FOR US AS SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THIS WING OF WAA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS FAR NW ZONES THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SURGING NORTH. CURRENT PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT THE NOTION
OF THIS AS WELL. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MCS TO OUR NORTH THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. CONCERNS
REMAIN ABOUT CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND OVERALL COVERAGE ONCE
STORMS INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OR
JUST CLIP FAR NORTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA TODAY. THIS MEANS THAT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME OFBS. THESE
OFBS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS POTENTIAL
INITIATION POINTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA.
THESE SPECIFICS WILL BECOME CLEARER AFTER THE MORNINGS CONVECTION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.  STRONG H7 CAPPING IS IN PLACE FROM THE SW TO THE NE. ALL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL BREAK THIS CAP AS IT
APPROACHES. WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS US...EXPECT
VERY LARGE CAPE...AOA 4000 J/KG...BELIEVE THAT THE NAM IS
OVERDOING THE VALUES. REGARDLESS ONCE THIS CAP BREAKS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAST. INITIAL STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL....DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO WI WHERE PROXIMITY TO OFBS AND THE
WARM FRONT COULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY GROW INTO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREATS.

MY CURRENT THINKING IS THIS...WE WILL WATCH A CU FIELD PERCOLATE
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN AROUND 00Z
AND EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR AROUND THE COLD
FRONT. I THINK THAT THE CELLS WILL BE ISOLATED AT FIRST AND MAY
PERSIST THAT WAY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR
VECTOR NOWHERE NEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...STORMS WILL
QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE ONCE COVERAGE INCREASES.

PWATS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...I
THINK ANY FLOODING WOULD BE TIED DIRECTLY TO TRAINING STORMS. I
DONT SEE THIS AS MUCH OF A THREAT AS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GROWING
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS JUST OUT OR JUST NEAR OUR BORDERS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

TODAY IS A DAY TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND HAVE A PLAN
IN CASE SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH COOLER DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

SIGNIFICANT RAINS MID WEEK AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE
TO BELOW AVERAGE.  MAIN ISSUE IS AGAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AMERICAN SOLUTIONS TOO FAR
NORTH WITH WARM AIR AND PRECIPITATION.  FAST W-NW UPPER FLOW AND
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPAWN LOTS OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD KEEP
AREA CLOUDY AND COOLER THIS PERIOD WITH STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH
LIKE THE HI-RES ECMWF. LOCAL HEAVY RAIN TECHNIQUES AND UPPER FORCING
ALSO SHOW BEST PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE ALL OR OVER MOSTLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION ONCE AGAIN ARE TOO HIGH
ON BL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS) AND RESULTING IN TOO COPIOUS QPF FIELDS
TO ACTUAL.  FAVORED PATTERN ALSO FOR COOL POOLS...OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE NON-HYDROSTATIC AND NOT ABLE TO BE CAPTURED BY
SOLUTIONS.  PREFER A 75/25 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO GFS THROUGH DAY 3
AND THEN WITH NW FLOW A 50/50 BLEND WITH MOSTLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TRENDS CONTINUE FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AND COOLER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TOO AND ALSO DEWPOINTS 2 TO 3 DEGREES AS DISCUSSED LAST
NIGHT COULD BE THE CASE AND THIS IS ON TRACK.  LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO MORE...ESPECIALLY FOR DEWPOINTS NORTHERN
SECTIONS MAKING FOR ANOTHER NICE AND COMFORTABLE SUMMER DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR NE/KS BORDER THAT
WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST INTO FAR SW SECTIONS BY MORNING. LOTS OF
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MOST TO ALL THE REGION BY DAYBREAK.  RATE OF
CLOUDINESS INCREASING OVERNIGHT WILL IMPACT MINS.

IF CLOUDS DELAYED THEN NE 1/3 OR MORE OF AREA MINS MAY NEED TRIMMING
BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY OR 3 DEGREES...INTO THE UPPER 50S.  FAR SW
SECTIONS COULD SEE .5 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS BY MORNING WITH COMPLEX WITH
A LOW POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE SINCE FRONT SHOULD BE TOO OUR
SOUTH...LIMITING INSTABILITY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.  HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL SLATED BE ROUGHLY
ALONG OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.  FORCING AND MOISTURE PROFILES FAVOR
WIDESPREAD .5 TO 1.5+ AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH
LOCALLY 2 TO 3+ POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.  COMBINED WITH TUESDAY
NIGHT EVENT LIKELY WOULD RESULT IN RENEWED HYDRO ISSUES. SEVERE RISK
CONTINUES TO APPEAR WILL BE PROBABLY SOUTH OF IA/MO BORDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE LOWERED AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT AND BASED ON THIS
PATTERN LIKELY NEED LOWERING ANOTHER 5 TO 8+ DEGREES ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 34 DUE TO GOOD EVAPORATIVE COOLING. LOTS OF MID TO UPPER
70S FOR HIGHS APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE...IF NOT PROBABLE FOR LATER
SHIFTS.

FOR THE 24+ HOUR PERIOD...SEE LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY FOR
SOME AREAS...THIS SHOULD PUSH SOME AREA RIVERS ONCE AGAIN NEAR TO
OVER BANKFULL WITH SOME RENEWED FLOODING.  LOWER END FLASH FLOODING
ALSO MAY OCCUR WITH AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES IF FALLS FAST ENOUGH...AS
IN A FEW HOURS OR LESS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASINGLY STRONGER NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST DAYS AND MINS MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IFR AND EVEN MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AM. TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE NORTHERN TAF SITES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SEEMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR WITH
STRONGEST STORMS. ONCE THE STORMS END...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
WINDS OUT OF THE NW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
435 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-230945-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
435 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE AREA UNDER AN ENHANCED SLIGHT
RISK FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING THAT MAY INITIALLY BE SUPERCELLS IN STRUCTURE THAT WILL BECOME
A SQUALL LINE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS BY EARLY EVENING. MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING SUPPORTS SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.
THE PRIMARY RISK WILL LARGE HAIL INITIALLY WITH UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS. BY EVENING THE PRIMARY RISK WILL WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
OF 60 TO 70+ MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A SECONDARY RISK.

A CONFERENCE CALL WITH AREA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL BE SCHEDULED
FOR LATER THIS MORNING TO DISCUSS THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. AT
THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 2 INCHES OR MORE. THE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALLS APPEARS
TO BE SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST RISK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE RISK WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. ANY REPORTS OF RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH WOULD ALSO BE APPRECIATED.

GIBBS/NICHOLS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
406 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ051-220930-
BENTON-
406 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY...

AT 405 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BRANDON...OR 7 MILES
NORTH OF VINTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VINTON...URBANA...MOUNT AUBURN...VINTON MEMORIAL AIRPORT...CHENEY AND
SPENCERS GROVE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 40 AND 48.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN THE QUAD CITIES .

LAT...LON 4230 9217 4230 9183 4209 9184 4223 9222
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 291DEG 26KT 4226 9199

GIBBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
431 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     HAIL             WSW URBANA              42.22N 91.88W
06/22/2015  M0.75 INCH       BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
445 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     HAIL             WSW URBANA              42.22N 91.88W
06/22/2015  M1.00 INCH       BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE HAILSTONE MEASURED JUST OVER 1 INCH. REST WERE DIME
            SIZE AND SMALLER.

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
714 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 AM     HAIL             URBANA                  42.22N 91.88W
06/22/2015  M1.00 INCH       BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE HAIL WAS NOT HEAVY BUT PRETTY FEW
            AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&