Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
200 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED
FROM NORTHEAST KS...THROUGH SOUTHEAST IOWA...THEN UP NORTHEAST TO
NEAR CHICAGO. LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING IN NORTHEAST KS...AND WILL
RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN OUR
CWA...AND IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE WARM SIDE. WARM
ADVECTION HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...AND WITH PWAT VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES...WE ARE
SEEING HEAVY RAIN RATES IN ALL STORMS OVER 40 DBZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AM)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

TONIGHT... THE EVENT HAS BEEN SPED UP JUST A BIT FROM
EARLIER RUNS...THUS I UPDATED TO BEGIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT 1
PM...VERSUS LATER THIS EVENING. THE RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES STILL
SEEM RIGHT ON TRACK...THROUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE THROUGH HEAVY
STRATIFORM MAINLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON...THROUGH LATE EVENING...WE WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING. I WILL KEEP THE FF WATCH GOING THROUGH
12Z...BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...WE CAN CANCEL THIS WITH THE 3 AM
PACKAGE.  THE RAINS SHOULD BE CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...IN A BAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH ARE NOT AS WET AND I WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WATCH EXPANSION. THE COLD FRONT WILL END THE RAIN
LATER TONIGHT...AND USHER FALL WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY PM THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT
FRI SEP 18 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY BEAUTIFUL THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S. THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WE WILL SEE A
STEADY WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA.
MUCH LIKE THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT DESCRIBED...THE GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO BRING QPF TO THE AREA TOWARDS THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS TIME THAT LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING..SO SCHC
TO LOW CHC POPS ARE CARRIED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF
EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH LATE EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE REGION. HEAVY
RAIN...LOW CIGS AROUND 1000 FT...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN ALL
STORMS. WHILE STORMS WILL NOT BE TRULY CONTINUOUS...THERE WILL BE
FEW IF ANY PREDICTABLE BREAKS UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 06Z TO 12Z TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOVE IN...WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AS THE RAIN ENDS.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     JACKSON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...ERVIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
416 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-191100-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
416 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ALL TYPES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS AFFECTED BY
HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALEDO TO PRINCETON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RP KINNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1030 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SSE SHANNON             42.15N 89.74W
09/18/2015  M1.41 INCH       CARROLL            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1040 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW CLINTON           41.79N 90.26W
09/18/2015  E2.32 INCH       CLINTON            IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER CLINTON NUMBER 1 REPORTED 2.32 INCHES OF
            RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

ALEXG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

IAZ063-076-077-087-098-181900-
IOWA-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-JEFFERSON-VAN BUREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARENGO...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...
FAIRFIELD...KEOSAUQUA.
1132 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

AN AREA OF STORMS IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AS OF 11
AM. THIS AREA OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL...BUT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
REDUCE VISIBILITY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 WEST OF IOWA CITY THROUGH 1
PM...AS WELL AS BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS
AND PARKING LOTS. USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ERVIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
203 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

ILC067-071-109-187-181945-
WARREN-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-
203 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HANCOCK AND MCDONOUGH
COUNTIES...

AT 201 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CARTHAGE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MACOMB...CARTHAGE...BUSHNELL...COLCHESTER...LA HARPE...ROSEVILLE...
AVON...BLANDINSVILLE...INDUSTRY...GOOD HOPE...PRAIRIE CITY...
BARDOLPH...FERRIS...RARITAN...TENNESSEE...SCIOTA...COLMAR...WESTERN
ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY...NEW PHILADELPHIA AND ADAIR.

LAT...LON 4044 9134 4095 9044 4033 9045 4029 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 239DEG 49KT 4041 9119

ERVIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
242 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

ILC109-187-182015-
WARREN-MCDONOUGH-
242 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ...

AT 242 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER COLCHESTER...OR NEAR
MACOMB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MACOMB...BUSHNELL...COLCHESTER...AVON...GOOD HOPE...PRAIRIE CITY...
BARDOLPH...TENNESSEE...SCIOTA...WESTERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY...NEW
PHILADELPHIA...ADAIR...FANDON...LITTLE SWAN LAKE...WALNUT GROVE...
GREENBUSH...PRAIRIE CITY AIRPORT...ARGYLE LAKE STATE PARK...MCDONOUGH
COUNTY 4-H GROUNDS AND SPRING LAKE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4029 9078 4045 9090 4085 9044 4042 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 239DEG 47KT 4042 9077

ERVIN

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