Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
654 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER THE DVN CWA ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS NEAR 2 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. TOWARDS MORNING THE JET VEERS
AND WEAKENS SO ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THEN. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS FIRING IN EASTERN IA EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE HRRR
MODEL DEPICTS THIS RATHER WELL. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. IF STORMS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREA THEN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING OR PONDING IS POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

THIS WILL BE A SHORT DISCUSSION SINCE STRONG STORMS CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION. ANALYSIS AT 2 PM DEPICTS COLD FRONT ENTERING FAR NW
IOWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF FRONT OF DEWPOINTAS NEAR 70.
SHORT TERM TOOLS WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS SUPPORTS A CONVECTIVE LINE TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL PRODUCE A WAVE ON THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY. ALL THE AREA
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD .75 TO 1.5 PLUS INCHES THE NEXT 30 HOURS
WITH ISOLATED 2 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM ENERGY INDICATES
QUIET AND PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER THEN INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MID
EVENING TO LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE UNTIL
LATE EVENING DUE TO RISK OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH.
AN ISOLATED LOWER END SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT THE QUESTION BUT
THIS WOULD NEED TO OCCUR BEFORE LATE EVENING AND AHEAD OF THE
LINE. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR
WITH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OR MORE OF THE REGION TO PICK UP THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS WITH THREE QUARTERS TO 1 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS MOST COMMON.
SOUTH 1/3 TO 1/2 SHOULD SEE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY AMOUNTS GENERALLY
LESS THAN A HALF INCH. POPS ARE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TONIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS WELL OVER 2 INCHES TO NEAR 3 INCHES WITH
ANY WATER ISSUES TO BE MINOR...IF AT ALL UNLESS SEE ANY AMOUNTS
NEAR 3 INCHES WHICH IS REMOTE AT THIS TIME. LOWS LOWER 60S NW TO
NEAR 70F DEGREES FAR SOUTH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO OVERSPREAD MOST TO ALL THE REGION BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
PASSES NEAR OR SOUTH OF KEOKUK BY EARLY EVENING. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SUPPORTS ISOLATED OR NO THUNDER ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 MORE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR
CONVECTION BUT HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND RISK OF ANY SEVERE AT THIS
TIME APPEARS WILL BE ALONG OR MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE IA/MO
BORDER. RAIN HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
REASSESS. MOST RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE LESS THAN A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AN HOUR WHICH SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY WATER
ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I-80 WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTH 1/3 TO
1/2 OF THE REGION SHOULD PICK UP .75 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH SHOULD NOT
CAUSE ANY WATER ISSUES. MINS LOWER 50S NW TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN SE
AS SKIES CLEAR BY SUNRISE AND NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH.

SATURDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...SEASONABLY COOL WITH FAIR SKIES AND DRY
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND
LOWS 45 TO 55 WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
A LIGHT SHOWER WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS. HIGHS
MID TO UPPER 70S AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AS
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH LCL IFR CONDS IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING TOWARDS MORNING. THEN WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT KCID/KDBQ.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...HAASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-181000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
500 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK OVER
THIS AREA. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN
STORM THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST AREAS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...FAR NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS FRIDAY EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY GENERALLY
ALONG AN WEST OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA...TO THE QUAD
CITIES...AND TO MACOMB IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MORE OF A WIDESPREAD THREAT BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT GET REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RAINFALL RATES MAY
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND TEMPORARY URBAN FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHEETS/12

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