River Flood Warning 74, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
624 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIP SHUTTING DOWN ACROSS MISSOURI. WATER
VAPOR HAS A DRY SLOT MOVING NORTHEAST SO THE REMAINING SHOWERS
WILL BE EVENTUALLY SHUTTING DOWN. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
TREND TOWARD THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

06Z SFC DATA HAS THE STRONG SFC LOW NEAR KOOA WITH THE COLD FRONT
RUNNING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR KEVV. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WERE IN THE 50S AND WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

EARLY MORNING DATA INDICATES RECORD HIGHS WERE AGAIN ACHIEVED AT
DUBUQUE AND CEDAR RAPIDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC
INFORMATION.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THUS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA...AND THE NORTH HALF DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
END ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY SUNSET.

THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ACHIEVED AT 8 AM THIS MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

TONIGHT...DRY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID
DECEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

DRY TO MOSTLY DRY WITH COOLING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN ISSUE IS NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES RANGES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLY AT
LEAST 3 DEGREES TOO MILD FOR LOWS.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION FAIR WITH MOST SOLUTIONS
TOO MOIST AND ALSO TOO WIDESPREAD AND HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS. CONSISTENCE
AGAIN SUGGEST AT LEAST A 65/35 WEIGHTING OF HI-RES ECMWF TO GFS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND STILL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WITH PASSING WAVE
TO THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S ON THURSDAY AM WITH CLEARING SKIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEASONABLY COLD AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
IN COLDER AIR. UNDER FAIR TO MOSTLY SKIES HIGHS 25 TO 35 WITH LOWS
15 TO 25. LOWS MAY NEED TO BE COLDER WHEN SURFACE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY,,,LOW CONFIDENCE AS POPS APPEAR TOO HIGH NEXT FRONT APPROACHES.
SOUTH WINDS SUGGEST ONCE AGAIN ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

CONDITIONS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY DETERIORATE BACK TO
MVFR AS WRAP AROUND CLOUDS MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH 18Z/14.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 14...

MOLINE.........61 IN 1975
CEDAR RAPIDS...58 IN 2006
DUBUQUE........55 IN 1975
BURLINGTON.....62 IN 2008 AND EARLIER

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
411 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-151015-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
411 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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