Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
528 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015

A changing synoptic scale pattern will influence the short term
weather. Some of the more interesting aspects of the next couple of
days will be convective chances tonight, and how expansive freezing
temperatures may be on Thursday night.

For tonight, the models indicate cyclogenesis increasing across
northeast colorado and expanding northeast into south central
Nebraska. This will help drag a pre frontal trough in advance of a
pacific Cold front across western Kansas through the overnight
hours. NAM fields support around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE along the developing
convective line most of which is packed in the 0-3 and 0-1km layer.
With strong 30-40 knots relative flow, a possible qlcs line may be
highly sheared with severe wind potential. However, the environment
could be too highly sheared to allow sustained updrafts as the
convective allowing models have been backing off convection east of
the ks/co line area, with exception of the HRRR. Any storms and
showers that are ale to move into central Kansas would clear the
area overnight. The Pacific front morning in with expanding high
pressure during the day Thursday should lend to more fall like highs
for Thursday afternoon as well as a chance for freezing temperatures
in the far west and frost elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015

High pressure expanding across the Central Plains into the weekend
will likely bring lighter surface winds with time and more
widespread threat for from and freezing temperatures by Saturday
morning. Slow moderation toward highs in the 60s to around 70 are
likely into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015

A strong upper level wave will push across western Kansas
overnight with a possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms
forming a line with strong winds the main threat near 40-50kt.
Storms should be near GCK by 03-04Z, DDC by 05-06Z, and HYS by
06-08Z and last for an hour or two. Expect south winds of 18-28kt
shifting slowly to the southwest and decreasing late. Could have
some MVFR cigs in storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  65  35  60 /  30  10  10   0
GCK  47  59  34  59 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  45  60  35  58 /  30  10  10   0
LBL  49  64  36  61 /  20  10  10   0
HYS  52  64  35  59 /  20  20  10   0
P28  57  74  40  62 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Kruse

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
327 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-052130-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
327 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 /227 PM MST WED NOV 4 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 9 PM NEAR THE COLORADO
LINE COULD DEVELOP INTO A LINE BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH
THE HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR. STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  THURSDAY...
  SIGNIFICANT FROST RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  SIGNIFICANT FROST AND OR FREEZE RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  EXTREME FROST AND OR FREEZE RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

  MONDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  TUESDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

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