Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
353 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

LAST NIGHT'S UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
PUSHED A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WAS NEAR PRATT TO NEAR ASHLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
TROUGH LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO SOME
WEAK UPSLOPE RETURNS TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE ELKHART TO LIBERAL AREA. WILL
KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING MAINLY SOUTH OF DODGE CITY TONIGHT. CAPES
ARE RUNNING AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP. WITH WEAK WIND
SHEAR THERE COULD BE ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE IF STORMS FORM. THIS FITS
WITH SPC FORECAST OF MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE SOUTH OF DODGE CITY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME LIGHT SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK NORTHWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND
IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FOR FRIDAY, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO
WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS INTO WESTERN KANSAS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE NAM MODEL IS
ROBUST WITH LOTS OF THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORMS WITH LESS
MOISTURE RETURN. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING. SOME STORMS COULD
BE MARGINALLY SEVERE IF THEY DEVELOP. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 100.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

FOR SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HAYS TO SYRACUSE BY EVENING. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY EVENING. SOUTH
WINDS WILL STILL BRING A HOT DAY TO WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100.

FOR SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA BY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY
STALL NEAR MEDICINE LODGE BY EVENING. MORE SCATTERED STORMS COULD
FORM NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AND AROUND 90
NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH NEAR 100 AT MEDICINE LODGE.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY, A SEASONABLE PERIOD IS
FORECAST AS THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD
INTO TEXAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO REBUILD BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN BACK TO AROUND 100 ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN MILD AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE COMMON TODAY BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 04-08Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70 100  74 100 /  10  30  30  10
GCK  68  99  71  98 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  67  98  68  99 /  30  20  20  10
LBL  69  98  72 100 /  20  20  30  10
HYS  70 100  73 100 /  10  30  30  20
P28  74  99  76 100 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE

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