Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
659 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

FOR TONIGHT, A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE HAYS AREA. AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVE OUT OF
EASTERN COLORADO, SOME STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FAR WEST TO NEAR GARDEN CITY BY 7 TO 8 PM. OTHER STORMS
COULD DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY ALSO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BE
MORE SCATTERED. MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW PROLIFIC THE STORMS WILL
BE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE NAM SHOWING A STRONG CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITH A FORECAST MCS NORTH OF DODGE CITY, WHILE THE GFS AND
OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE MORE WITH THE GFS WITH LESSER RAIN
CHANCES SOUTH OF HAYS. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT COULD HAVE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE HAYS AREA AND THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
CURRENTLY LOADED WPC FORECAST THAT SHOWS AROUND 1/3 INCH IN THAT
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
QUARTERS ALSO DOES NOT LOOK THAT PROMISING WITH WEAK LAYER WIND
SHEAR.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID
70S IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND MEDICINE LODGE. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST, THEN VARIABLE WITH ANY STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS GOING. CHANCES OF SEVERE LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS WILL BE WARM AND IN THE UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

FOR FRIDAY, BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO, SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT 15 TO 25 MPH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE NAM
FORECAST, HOWEVER THE GFS HAS NOTHING. HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND AROUND
100 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS WITH WARM SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND HIGHS AGAIN
AROUND 100. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY IN THE HIGHER
MOISTURE.

FOR SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT CAUSED BY A
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS, TO NEAR 100 JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE COOLER AND AROUND 90 TO 95 DEGREES, AS THE VERY WARM UPPER RIDGE
IS SUPPRESSED INTO TEXAS. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THOUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 68 TO 75 DEGREE
RANGE INTO SUNDAY, THEN COOL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

NUMEROUS STORMS WILL MOVE ACRSS THE TAF AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A
THREAT OF STORMS SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AT ANY OF
THE TERMINAL SITES. A VERY UNSTABLE AMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AS NON SEVERE,
GENERALLY LOW THREAT STORMS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  71 100 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  68  96  69  98 /  30  20  20  20
EHA  68  97  69  98 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  69  97  70  98 /  30  20  30  20
HYS  70  98  70 100 /  70  20  20  20
P28  74  99  74 100 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-161015-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
510 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS,
MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A
LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS LATE IN THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS, THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THE 60 TO 70 MPH RANGE AND AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
REPORT TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
FAR WESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
718 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JOHNSON CITY            37.57N 101.75W
07/15/2015                   STANTON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLES DOWN. DAMAGE TO HOUSES FROM HAIL
            AND STREET FLOODING WAS OCCURRING.

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
727 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             7 SE THE SAUNDERS ELEVA 37.41N 101.92W
07/15/2015  M1.00 INCH       STANTON            KS   PUBLIC

&&

FKRUSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
735 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

KSZ064-077-078-160115-
HODGEMAN KS-FORD KS-GRAY KS-
735 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HODGEMAN...
NORTHWESTERN FORD AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 735 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3
MILES NORTH OF THE HAGGARD ELEV...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DODGE CITY...CIMARRON...FORD...ENSIGN...WRIGHT...HOWELL...FT. DODGE
AND THE HAGGARD ELEV.

LAT...LON 3756 10032 3776 10044 3807 9992 3763 9972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 239DEG 22KT 3768 10031

HOVORKA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
835 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

KSZ063-064-076>078-087-160215-
HODGEMAN KS-FORD KS-HASKELL KS-MEADE KS-GRAY KS-FINNEY KS-
835 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MEADE...EASTERN
HASKELL...SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN...NORTHWESTERN FORD...SOUTHEASTERN
FINNEY AND GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 835 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF PLYMELL TO
9 MILES NORTHWEST OF COPELAND TO 2 MILES EAST OF TICE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CIMARRON...MONTEZUMA...PIERCEVILLE...COPELAND...INGALLS...ENSIGN...
CHARLESTON...HOWELL...THE HAGGARD ELEV...PLYMELL...KALVESTA AND TICE.

LAT...LON 3763 10079 3779 10100 3812 10028 3794 10013
      3768 10011 3740 10072
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 240DEG 36KT 3781 10096 3766 10073 3750 10068

HOVORKA