Alert archive / Kansas / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

July 15, 2015Morton County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this special weather statement at Jul 15, 2015, 4:11 PM CDT for Morton County, Kansas. It was in force for 64 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2015, 4:11 PM CDT (21:11 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2015, 5:15 PM CDT
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS

County Morton County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 174 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1897 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 194 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 202 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 15, 2:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 2:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
254 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

FOR TONIGHT, A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE HAYS AREA. AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVE OUT OF
EASTERN COLORADO, SOME STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FAR WEST TO NEAR GARDEN CITY BY 7 TO 8 PM. OTHER STORMS
COULD DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY ALSO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BE
MORE SCATTERED. MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW PROLIFIC THE STORMS WILL
BE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE NAM SHOWING A STRONG CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITH A FORECAST MCS NORTH OF DODGE CITY, WHILE THE GFS AND
OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE MORE WITH THE GFS WITH LESSER RAIN
CHANCES SOUTH OF HAYS. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT COULD HAVE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE HAYS AREA AND THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
CURRENTLY LOADED WPC FORECAST THAT SHOWS AROUND 1/3 INCH IN THAT
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
QUARTERS ALSO DOES NOT LOOK THAT PROMISING WITH WEAK LAYER WIND
SHEAR.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID
70S IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND MEDICINE LODGE. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST, THEN VARIABLE WITH ANY STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS GOING. CHANCES OF SEVERE LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS WILL BE WARM AND IN THE UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

FOR FRIDAY, BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO, SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT 15 TO 25 MPH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE NAM
FORECAST, HOWEVER THE GFS HAS NOTHING. HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND AROUND
100 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS WITH WARM SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND HIGHS AGAIN
AROUND 100. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY IN THE HIGHER
MOISTURE.

FOR SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT CAUSED BY A
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS, TO NEAR 100 JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE COOLER AND AROUND 90 TO 95 DEGREES, AS THE VERY WARM UPPER RIDGE
IS SUPPRESSED INTO TEXAS. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THOUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 68 TO 75 DEGREE
RANGE INTO SUNDAY, THEN COOL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF KDDC AND KHYS INTO
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UPSLOPE THIS
EVENING. MODELS HAVE SOME STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER 00Z WITH
THE BEST CHANCES AFTER 05Z NEAR KHYS. WILL KEEP A VCTS FOR KHYS.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  71 100 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  68  96  69  98 /  30  20  20  20
EHA  68  97  69  98 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  69  97  70  98 /  30  20  30  20
HYS  70  98  70 100 /  70  20  20  20
P28  74  99  74 100 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 5:10 AM CDT, 11 hours 1 minute before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-161015-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
510 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS,
MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A
LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS LATE IN THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS, THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THE 60 TO 70 MPH RANGE AND AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
REPORT TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
FAR WESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 4:11 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
411 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

KSZ084-152215-
MORTON KS-
411 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN STANTON AND MORTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 410 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES WEST OF ELKHART...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELKHART...ROLLA...RICHFIELD AND WILBURTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DODGE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3717 10204 3739 10189 3739 10162 3738 10156
      3699 10156 3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 222DEG 17KT 3703 10200

HOVORKA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 9:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Hamilton	41 min
Jul 14, 10:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Morton, Stanton	41 min
Jul 14, 11:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Grant, Morton, Stanton, Stevens	52 min
Jul 14, 11:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Lane, Scott	32 min
Jul 14, 11:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Grant, Morton, Stanton, Stevens	27 min
Jul 14, 11:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Finney, Grant, Gray, Haskell, Kearny, Seward and 1 more	92 min
Jul 15, 12:35 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Finney	40 min
Jul 15, 1:07 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Ellis, Trego	68 min
Jul 15, 1:36 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ellis, Rush	54 min
Jul 15, 2:21 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Rush	39 min
Jul 15, 4:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Stevens	41 min
Jul 15, 5:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Stanton	49 min
Jul 15, 5:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Grant, Hamilton, Kearny, Stanton	29 min
Jul 15, 6:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Morton, Stanton	30 min
Jul 15, 6:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Stanton	49 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.