Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
735 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING. SOME RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW IN THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME, FROM NEW MEXICO INTO COLORADO, WILL SET
OFF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND PROGRESSING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS. MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
COULD BE JUST NORTH OF GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND QPF IN THAT AREA TONIGHT.

A WIND SHIFT LINE JUST SOUTH OF DODGE CITY COULD BE THE FOCUS OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AS LAYER WIND SHEAR IS WEAK. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM THIS EVENING COULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
DOWNDRAFT CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.

THE MCS LATER TONIGHT COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL TO
AROUND QUARTER SIZE AND STRONG WINDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH BECOME SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF DODGE CITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS.

FOR WEDNESDAY, SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF DODGE CITY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
LINE IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH CAPES
AROUND 2000 J/KG. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM 97 TO NEAR 100
DEGREES WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 12 TO 22 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH LINE WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH A FOCUS FOR MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
90S AGAIN.

FOR FRIDAY, THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH, WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND
THE CENTURY MARK. SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

FOR THE WEEKEND, CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE ON SATURDAY, BUT
THEN MORE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT IN
PUSHING A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR OR AROUND 100 DEGREES.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A COOLER AIRMASS IF FORECAST
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE MILD AND IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS IN THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. NUMEROUS PULSE TYPE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CLUSTERED AS THEY MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THIS
PERIOD AS THE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO AREAL COVERAGE IS QUITE
LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  99  70  97 /  50  20  30  30
GCK  68  97  68  96 /  60  30  30  30
EHA  68  97  68  97 /  40  30  30  30
LBL  69  99  69  97 /  30  20  30  30
HYS  71  97  70  97 /  60  40  50  30
P28  74  99  74  99 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ090.

&&

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
421 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-150930-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
421 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
BARBER COUNTY IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE HEAT INDICES
DOWN IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 105
DEGREES. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK ROTATION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CAPABLE OF
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE 60 TO 70 MPH
RANGE. BY LATE TONIGHT...A LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS EXPECTED
TO MATURE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAY 50 AND INTERSTATE 70 WITH THE
MAIN HAZARD SHIFTING TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH. MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND
FRIDAY.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 50 AND
INTERSTATE 70.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
804 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

KSZ061-150245-
HAMILTON KS-
804 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM
MDT...

AT 803 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SYRACUSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ALONG THE COLORADO KANSAS
LINE NEAR NORTHWEST HAMILTON COUNTY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SYRACUSE AND COOLIDGE.

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3825 10156 3775 10157 3775 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 205DEG 24KT 3786 10198

RUSSELL